| Preface |
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xiii | |
| Acknowledgments |
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xv | |
| About the Author |
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xvii | |
| Legal Disclosure |
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xix | |
| Introduction: The Market Wants to Be Your Friend |
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xxi | |
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1 | (42) |
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5 | (1) |
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Why Is It So Hard to Beat the Market? |
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6 | (1) |
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7 | (1) |
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The Evidence (Research and Stuff) |
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8 | (1) |
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The Media Get It Wrong, Over and Over Again |
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8 | (1) |
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Economists Get It Wrong, Over and Over Again |
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9 | (5) |
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Investment Managers Get It Wrong, Over and Over Again |
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14 | (3) |
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Newsletters Get It Wrong, Over and Over Again |
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17 | (1) |
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18 | (1) |
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Strategies That Don't Sound Like Market Timing but Are Market Timing--Oh, and They Don't Work Either |
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19 | (1) |
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19 | (1) |
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Tactical Asset Allocation |
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20 | (1) |
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20 | (1) |
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20 | (1) |
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What Smart Investors Have to Say on Market Timing |
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20 | (1) |
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Knowing All This, Why Would Anyone Market Time? |
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21 | (1) |
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22 | (4) |
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Bear Markets: An Overview |
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26 | (1) |
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Bear Markets Happen for Different Reasons, but the Outcome Is Always the Same |
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27 | (1) |
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Bear Markets Are Not Predictable |
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28 | (2) |
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When Bear Markets "Turn," They Make People on the Sidelines Look Silly |
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30 | (1) |
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The Market Is Volatile--Get Used to It |
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30 | (1) |
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You Can't Wait for Consumers to Feel Good |
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31 | (2) |
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Learning to Accept the Bear Markets |
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33 | (1) |
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Miscalculating the Risk of Market Timing |
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34 | (1) |
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But What If I Am Perfect? |
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34 | (2) |
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Lump-Sum Investing versus Dollar-Cost Averaging |
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36 | (4) |
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40 | (1) |
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Avoiding Mistake #1--Market Timing |
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41 | (2) |
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Mistake #2 Active Trading |
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43 | (22) |
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The History of Active Trading |
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44 | (1) |
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Active Investment Managers Lose to Indexing |
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45 | (1) |
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Newsletters Lose to Indexing |
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45 | (1) |
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Active Mutual Funds Lose to Indexing |
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45 | (2) |
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Survivor Bias (a.k.a. Mutual Fund Performance Is Even Worse Than the Data Suggests) |
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47 | (1) |
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What About the Winners, Huh? What About the Winners?! |
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48 | (3) |
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Hedge Funds Lose to Indexing |
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51 | (5) |
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Endowments--Misperception of Performance |
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56 | (1) |
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Venture Capital (Sounds Sexy but Usually a Dog) |
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57 | (2) |
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The Taxman Cometh (a.k.a. Dear Goodness, It Gets Worse) |
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59 | (1) |
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Portfolio Activity Hurts Performance |
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59 | (1) |
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But Doesn't Active Management Work in a Down Market? |
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60 | (1) |
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61 | (1) |
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But Indexing Results in Average Returns |
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62 | (1) |
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62 | (2) |
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Avoiding Mistake #2--Active Trading |
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64 | (1) |
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Mistake #3 Misunderstanding Performance and Financial Information |
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65 | (60) |
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Misunderstanding #1--Judging Performance in a Vacuum |
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65 | (2) |
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Misunderstanding #2--Believing the Financial Media Exists to Help You Make Smart Decisions (a.k.a. the Media Is Killing You) |
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67 | (4) |
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Misunderstanding #3--Believing That the Market Cares About Today |
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71 | (3) |
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Misunderstanding #4--Believing an All-Time High Means the Market is Due for a Pullback |
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74 | (3) |
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Misunderstanding #5--Believing Correlation Equals Causation |
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77 | (1) |
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October Is The Worst Month to Invest |
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77 | (1) |
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78 | (1) |
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Misunderstanding #6--Believing Financial News Is Actionable |
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79 | (1) |
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Misunderstanding #7--Believing Republicans Are Better for the Market Than Democrats |
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80 | (2) |
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Misunderstanding #8--Overestimating the Impact of a Manager |
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82 | (1) |
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Misunderstanding #9--Believing Market Drops Are the Time to Get Defensive |
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83 | (1) |
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Avoiding Mistake #3--Misunderstanding Performance and Financial Information |
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84 | (1) |
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Mistake #4 Letting Yourself Get in the Way |
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85 | (1) |
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85 | (4) |
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The Overconfidence Effect |
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89 | (4) |
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93 | (2) |
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95 | (2) |
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97 | (1) |
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98 | (2) |
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100 | (3) |
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103 | (2) |
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105 | (1) |
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Avoiding Mistake #4--Letting Yourself Get in the Way |
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106 | (1) |
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Mistake #5 Working with the Wrong Advisor |
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107 | (1) |
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Most Advisors Will Do Far More Harm Than Good |
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108 | (1) |
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Advisor Selection Issue #1--Custody |
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108 | (5) |
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Advisor Selection Issue #2--Conflict |
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113 | (1) |
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Test #1 Independent Advisor or Broker? |
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114 | (1) |
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Investment Advisor Defined |
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114 | (1) |
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114 | (1) |
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So What's the Difference? |
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115 | (1) |
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Test #2 Pure Independent versus Independent and Broker |
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116 | (1) |
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Test #3 Proprietary Funds versus No Proprietary Funds |
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117 | (1) |
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A Final Thought on Conflicts |
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118 | (1) |
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Advisor Selection Issue #3--Competence |
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119 | (1) |
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Competence Check #1 Do the Advisor's Credentials Meet Your Needs? |
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120 | (1) |
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Competence Check #2 Is the Advisor Right for You? |
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120 | (1) |
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Competence Check #3 Is the Advisor Following a Process That You Agree With? |
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120 | (1) |
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A Final Thought on Advisors--Principles |
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121 | (1) |
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Avoiding Mistake #5 Choosing the Wrong Advisor |
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122 | (3) |
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125 | (28) |
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Rule #1 Have a Clearly Defined Plan |
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125 | (2) |
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Rule #2 Avoid Asset Classes That Diminish Results |
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127 | (1) |
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Cash--The Illusion of Safety |
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127 | (2) |
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The Illusion of Gold as a Way to Grow Wealth |
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129 | (2) |
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Rule #3 Use Stocks and Bonds as the Core Building Blocks of Your Intelligently Constructed Portfolio |
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131 | (7) |
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Rule #4 Take a Global Approach |
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138 | (2) |
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Rule #5 Use Primarily Index-Based Positions |
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140 | (1) |
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Rule #6 Don't Blow Out Your Existing Holdings |
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140 | (2) |
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Rule #7 Be Sure You Can Live with Your Allocation |
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142 | (1) |
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143 | (1) |
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144 | (1) |
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The Ultimate Rule: Don't Mess It Up! |
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145 | (1) |
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146 | (1) |
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The "I Want to Beat the Market" Portfolio |
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146 | (1) |
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The "I Need 7 Percent to Hit My Long-Term Retirement Goal" Portfolio |
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146 | (1) |
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The "Get Me What I Need for the Rest of My Life with the Least Volatility Possible" Portfolio |
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147 | (1) |
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The "I Have More Money Than I Will Ever Need and I Want It to Grow with Minimal Volatility" Portfolio |
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148 | (1) |
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The "I Have More Money Than I Will Ever Need, Volatility Doesn't Bother Me, and I Want It to Grow Along with the Market" Portfolio |
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148 | (2) |
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A Path to Success: Intelligent Portfolio Construction |
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150 | (1) |
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151 | (2) |
| Conclusion Let's Roll!! |
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153 | (2) |
| References |
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155 | (8) |
| Index |
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163 | |