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E-raamat: Age of Em: Work, Love, and Life when Robots Rule the Earth

(Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason University)
  • Formaat: 368 pages
  • Ilmumisaeg: 19-May-2016
  • Kirjastus: Oxford University Press
  • Keel: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9780191069659
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  • Formaat: 368 pages
  • Ilmumisaeg: 19-May-2016
  • Kirjastus: Oxford University Press
  • Keel: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9780191069659

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Robots may one day rule the world, but what is a robot-ruled Earth like?

Many think the first truly smart robots will be brain emulations or ems. Scan a human brain, then run a model with the same connections on a fast computer, and you have a robot brain, but recognizably human.

Train an em to do some job and copy it a million times: an army of workers is at your disposal. When they can be made cheaply, within perhaps a century, ems will displace humans in most jobs. In this new economic era, the world economy may double in size every few weeks.

Some say we can't know the future, especially following such a disruptive new technology, but Professor Robin Hanson sets out to prove them wrong. Applying decades of expertise in physics, computer science, and economics, he uses standard theories to paint a detailed picture of a world dominated by ems.

While human lives don't change greatly in the em era, em lives are as different from ours as our lives are from those of our farmer and forager ancestors. Ems make us question common assumptions of moral progress, because they reject many of the values we hold dear.

Read about em mind speeds, body sizes, job training and career paths, energy use and cooling infrastructure, virtual reality, aging and retirement, death and immortality, security, wealth inequality, religion, teleportation, identity, cities, politics, law, war, status, friendship and love.

This book shows you just how strange your descendants may be, though ems are no stranger than we would appear to our ancestors. To most ems, it seems good to be an em.

Arvustused

Hanson's predictions detail a world both uncanny and eerily familiar. * Mary Craig, Nature * Plenty of futurists and science fiction writers have toyed with the idea that the brains of particular humans could one day be scanned and uploaded into artificial hardware but Prof Hanson's take is different. His aim is to use standard theories from the physical, human and social sciences to make forecasts about how this technological breakthrough would really change our world * Sarah O' Connor, Financial Times * What is remarkable ... is not just the detail ... but the way he situates it within a perceptive analysis of our human past and present * Daniel J. Levitin, Wall Street Journal Europe * What happens when a first-rate economist applies his rigor, breadth, and curiosity to the sci-fi topic of whole brain emulations? This book is what happens. There's nothing else like it, and it will blow your (current) mind. * Andrew McAfee, Professor of Business, Massachusetts Institute of Technology * Robin Hanson brings intelligence, imagination, and courage to some of the most profound questions humanity will be dealing with in the middle-term future. The Age of Em is a stimulating and unique book that will be valuable to anyone who wants to look past the next ten years to the next hundred and the next thousand. * Sean Carroll, Professor of Physics, California Institute of Technology, author The Big Picture: On the Origins of Life, Meaning, and the Universe Itself * A highly provocative vision of a technologically advanced future that may or may not come true but if it does, we'll be glad Robin wrote this book now. * Marc Andreessen, cofounder Netscape, Andreessen Horowitz *

Introduction 1(4)
I BASICS
1 Start
5(9)
Overview
Summary
2 Modes
14(21)
Precedents
Prior Eras
Our Era
Era Values
Dreamtime
Limits
3 Framing
35(15)
Motivation
Forecasting
Scenarios
Consensus
Scope
Biases
4 Assumptions
50(14)
Brains
Emulations
Anthropomorphize
Complexity
Artificial Intelligence
5 Implementation
64(15)
Mindreading
Hardware
Security
Parallelism
II PHYSICS
6 Scales
79(17)
Speeds
Bodies
Lilliput
Meetings
Entropy
Miserly Minds
7 Infrastructure
96(15)
Climate
Cooling
Air and Water
Buildings
Manufacturing
8 Appearances
111(11)
Virtual Reality
Comfort
Shared Spaces
Merging Real and Virtual
9 Information
122(11)
Views
Records
Fakery
Simulations
10 Existence
133(9)
Copying
Rights
Many Ems
Surveillance
11 Farewells
142(17)
Fragility
Retirement
Ghosts
Ways to End
Defining Death
Suicide
III ECONOMICS
12 Labor
159(15)
Supply and Demand
Malthusian Wages
First Ems
Selection
Enough Ems
13 Efficiency
174(18)
Clan Concentration
Competition
Productivity
Eliteness
Qualities
Motivation
14 Work
192(12)
Work Hours
Spurs
Spur Uses
Social Power
15 Business
204(12)
Institutions
New Institutions
Combinatorial Auctions
Prediction Markets
16 Growth
216(11)
Faster Growth
Growth Estimate
Growth Myths
Finance
17 Lifecycle
227(20)
Careers
Peak Age
Maturity
Preparation
Training
Childhood
IV ORGANIZATION
18 Clumping
247(14)
Cities
City Structure
City Auctions
Choosing Speed
Transport
19 Groups
261(17)
Clans
Managing Clans
Firms
Firm-Clan Relations
Teams
Mass Versus Niche Teams
20 Conflict
278(19)
Inequality
Em Inequality
Redistribution
War
Slavery
Nepotism
Fake Experts
21 Politics
297(18)
Status
Governance
Clan Governance
Democracy
Coalitions
Factions
22 Rules
315(16)
Law
Efficient Law
Innovation
Software
Lone Developers
V SOCIOLOGY
23 Mating
331(10)
Sexuality
Open-Source Lovers
Pair Bonds
Gender
Gender Imbalance
24 Signals
341(16)
Showing Off
Personal Signals
Group Signals
Charity
Identity
Copy Identity
25 Collaboration
357(17)
Ritual
Religion
Language
Swearing
Conversation
On Call Advice
Synchronization
26 Society
374(16)
Culture
Divisions
Farmer-Like
Travel
Stories
Clan Stories
27 Minds
390(29)
Humans
Unhumans
Partial Minds
Psychology
Intelligence
Rogue Machines
Foom
After Ems
VI IMPLICATIONS
28 Variations
419(15)
Trends
Alternatives
Transition
Enabling Technologies
Aliens
29 Choices
434(15)
Evaluation
Quality of Life
Policy
Charity
Success
30 Finale
449(4)
Critics
Conclusion
References 453(44)
Index 497
Robin Hanson is an associate professor of economics at George Mason University, and a research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University. Professor Hanson has master's degrees in physics and philosophy from the University of Chicago, nine years experience in artificial intelligence research at Lockheed and N.A.S.A., a doctorate in social science from California Institute of Technology, 2800 citations, and sixty academic publications, in economics, physics, computer science, philosophy, and more. He blogs at OvercomingBias.com, and has pioneered the field of prediction markets since 1988.