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E-raamat: Agent_Zero: Toward Neurocognitive Foundations for Generative Social Science

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"The Final Volume of the Groundbreaking Trilogy on Agent-Based ModelingIn this pioneering synthesis, Joshua Epstein introduces a new theoretical entity: Agent Zero. This software individual, or "agent," is endowed with distinct emotional/affective, cognitive/deliberative, and social modules. Grounded in contemporary neuroscience, these internal components interact to generate observed, often far-from-rational, individual behavior. When multiple agents of this new type move and interact spatially, they collectively generate an astonishing range of dynamics spanning the fields of social conflict, psychology, public health, law, network science, and economics.Epstein weaves a computational tapestry with threads from Plato, Hume, Darwin, Pavlov, Smith, Tolstoy, Marx, James, and Dostoevsky, among others. This transformative synthesis of social philosophy, cognitive neuroscience, and agent-based modeling will fascinate scholars and students of every stripe. Epstein's computer programs are provided in the book or on its Princeton University Press website, along with movies of his "computational parables." Agent Zero is a signal departure in what it includes (e.g., a new synthesis of neurally grounded internal modules), what it eschews (e.g., standard behavioralimitation), the phenomena it generates (from genocide to financial panic), and the modeling arsenal it offers the scientific community. For generative social science, Agent Zero presents a groundbreaking vision and the tools to realize it"--

This is a book of philosophy based in neuroscience and data visualization, intended for the social sciences. The book's core claim is that the neurobiology of human fear can predict the behavior of people in groups, in situations from lynching to the stock market. The author advocates uniting all the social sciences into one field based in brain research. Since humans are highly social animals, fear responses are neurologically contagious. The author proposes a new theoretical factor to explain how hostile or fear-based actions spread and show extinction over time. He stresses the proposed factor does not consider the actual dangers a person has experienced, but their disposition to act fearfully/violently, because witnessing the fear of others neurologically conditions them to do so. In this way fear or hostility can spread to people, times, and places where it is completely irrational. Critics will note the author's category of people acting from fear by proxy, which he calls Agent Zero and treats as a data factor, is a reified story about people's feelings, not a factor measurably affecting their choices; many of the graphics here are not supporting data but computer visualizations of the author's ideas. The author anticipates the criticism by saying this is a new field, so data proofs are not yet developed; the book is a series of thought experiments that can guide future research. A professor in Emergency Medicine, he holds joint appointments in Mathematics, Economics, International Health, Environmental Health Sciences, Biostatistics, Civil Engineering, and Computational Medicine, and directs a center for data modeling. The book is intended for academic and professional rather than popular readers. Annotation ©2014 Ringgold, Inc., Portland, OR (protoview.com)

The Final Volume of the Groundbreaking Trilogy on Agent-Based Modeling

In this pioneering synthesis, Joshua Epstein introduces a new theoretical entity:Agent_Zero. This software individual, or "agent," is endowed with distinct emotional/affective, cognitive/deliberative, and social modules. Grounded in contemporary neuroscience, these internal components interact to generate observed, often far-from-rational, individual behavior. When multiple agents of this new type move and interact spatially, they collectively generate an astonishing range of dynamics spanning the fields of social conflict, psychology, public health, law, network science, and economics.

Epstein weaves a computational tapestry with threads from Plato, Hume, Darwin, Pavlov, Smith, Tolstoy, Marx, James, and Dostoevsky, among others. This transformative synthesis of social philosophy, cognitive neuroscience, and agent-based modeling will fascinate scholars and students of every stripe. Epstein’s computer programs are provided in the book or on its Princeton University Press website, along with movies of his "computational parables."

Agent_Zero is a signal departure in what it includes (e.g., a new synthesis of neurally grounded internal modules), what it eschews (e.g., standard behavioral imitation), the phenomena it generates (from genocide to financial panic), and the modeling arsenal it offers the scientific community.

For generative social science, Agent_Zero presents a groundbreaking vision and the tools to realize it.

Arvustused

"Agent Zero offers a solution to some of social science's great puzzles. Its behavioral basis is the interplay of emotion, cognition, and network contagion effects. It elegantly explains why so many human actions are so manifestly dysfunctional, and why some are downright evil."George Akerlof, Nobel Laureate in Economics "Rarely has a book stimulated me intellectually as much as this one. Particularly exciting is the incorporation of agents who feel (affect) and deliberate, as well as influence one another through social interaction. Epstein is a brilliantly creative scholar and the range of applications showcased here is stunning. In sum, this is a pathbreaking book."Paul Slovic, University of Oregon "Joshua Epstein proposes a parsimonious but powerful model of individual behavior that can generate an extraordinary range of group behaviors, including mob violence, manias and financial panics, rebellions, network dynamics, and a host of other complex social phenomena. This is a highly original, beautifully conceived, and important book."Peyton Young, University of Oxford "In social science generally and most notably in economics, the rational actor model has long been the benchmark for policy analysis and institutional design. Epstein now offers a worthy alternative: Agent_Zero, a mathematically and computationally tractable agent whose inner workings are grounded in neuroscience. Much like you and me, Agent_Zero is influenced by emotion, reason, and social pressures. Epstein demonstrates that collections of Agent Zeros perform amazingly like real groups, teams, and societies and can therefore serve as the fundamental building blocks for what he calls Generative Social Science. The rational actor now has a true competitor. Agent_Zero is a major advance."Scott Page, University of Michigan "This is social science based on how our brains actually work. Epstein's computerized 'agents' can feel passion and fear, and can influence each other emotionally. And when they interact, we see many of the realities of social life, from the dynamics of juries to racist violence to Arab springs. A remarkable and original piece of work."W. Brian Arthur, Santa Fe Institute

Foreword xi
Preface xiii
Acknowledgments xv
Introduction 1(18)
Motivation
1(4)
Generate Social Dynamics
2(1)
A Core Target
2(3)
The Model Components
5(1)
Model Overview
6(4)
Skeletal Equation
8(1)
Specific Components
9(1)
Organization
10(9)
Part I: Mathematical Model
10(1)
Part II: Agent-Based Model
11(2)
Part III: Extensions
13(3)
Replicability and Research Resources on the Princeton University Press Website
16(1)
Part IV: Future Research and Conclusions
17(2)
Part I. Mathematical Model 19(62)
I.1 The Passions: Fear Conditioning
19(27)
Fear Circuitry and the Perils of Fitness
20(9)
Nomenclature of Conditioning
29(4)
The Rescorla-Wagner Model
33(4)
Social Examples
37(4)
Fear Extinction
41(5)
I.2 Reason: The Cognitive Component
46(5)
I.3 The Social Component
51(29)
Simple Version of the Core Target
55(2)
Examples of Fear Contagion
57(2)
Mechanisms of Fear Contagion
59(4)
Conformist Empirical Estimates
63(4)
Generalizing Rescorla-Wagner
67(2)
The Central Case
69(2)
Tolstoy: The First Agent Modeler
71(3)
A Mathematical Aside on Social Norms as Vector Fields
74(4)
Extinction of Majorities
78(2)
I.4 Interim Conclusions
80(1)
Part II. Agent-Based Computational Model 81(26)
Affective Component
84(1)
"Rational" Component
85(3)
Social Component
88(1)
Action
89(1)
Pseudocode
89(1)
II.1 Computational Parables
90(17)
Parable 1: The Slaughter of Innocents through Dispositional Contagion
90(4)
Parable 2: Agent_Zero Initiates: Leadership as Susceptibility to Dispositional Contagion
94(2)
Run
3. Information Guts Both Ways
96(2)
Run
4. A Day in the Life of Agent_Zero: How Affect and Probability Can Change on Different Time Scales
98(4)
Run
5. Lesion Studies
102(5)
Part III. Extensions 107(74)
III.1 Endogenous Destructive Radius
107(2)
III.2 Age And Impulse Control
109(1)
III.3 Fight Vs. Flight
110(4)
Case 1: Fight
111(1)
Case 2: Flight
112(2)
Capital Flight
114(1)
III.4 Replicating The Latane-Darley Experiment
114(4)
Threshold Imputation
115(3)
The Dialogue
118(1)
III.5 Memory
118(4)
III.6 Couplings: Entanglement Of Passion And Reason
122(6)
Mathematical Treatment
124(4)
III.7 Endogenous Dynamics Of Connection Strength
128(10)
Affective Homophily
128(2)
General Setup
130(5)
Agent-Based Model: Nonequlibrium Dynamics
135(3)
III.8 Growing The 2011 Arab Spring
138(5)
III.9 Jury Processes
143(9)
Phase
1. Public Phase
143(2)
Phase
2. Courtroom Trial Phase
145(2)
Phase
3. Jury Phase
147(5)
III.10 Emergent Dynamics Of Network Structure
152(8)
Network Structure Dynamics as a Poincare Map
153(6)
Relation to Literature
159(1)
III.11 Multiple Social Levels
160(5)
Agent_Zero as Witness to History
161(4)
III.12 The 18th Brumaire Of Agent_zero
165(3)
III.13 Introduction Of Prices And Seasonal Economic Cycles
168(8)
Prices
168(5)
A Christmas Story
173(3)
III.14 Spirals Of Mutual Escalation
176(5)
Part IV. Future Research and Conclusion 181(14)
IV.1 Future Research
181(6)
IV.2 Conclusion
187(5)
Civil Violence
187(1)
Economics
188(1)
Health Behavior
189(1)
Psychology
190(1)
Jury Dynamics
191(1)
The Formation and Dynamics of Networks
191(1)
Mutual Escalation Dynamics
192(1)
Birth and Intergenerational Transmission
192(1)
IV.3 Toward New Generative Foundations
192(3)
Appendix I. Threshold Imputation Bounds 195(2)
Appendix II. Mathematica Code 197(16)
Appendix III. Agent_Zero NetLogo Source Code 213(8)
Appendix IV. Parameter Settings for Model Runs 221(6)
References 227(16)
Index 243
Joshua M. Epstein directs the Center for Advanced Modeling at The Johns Hopkins University, where he is a professor in the Department of Emergency Medicine with joint appointments in the Departments of Applied Mathematics, Economics, International Health, Environmental Health Sciences, Biostatistics, Civil Engineering, and the Institute for Computational Medicine. He is also an external professor at the Santa Fe Institute. This volume forms a trilogy on agent-based modeling, with Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Bottom Up (MIT), with coauthor Robert Axtell, and Generative Social Science: Studies in Agent-Based Computational Modeling (Princeton).