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E-raamat: Analytical Methods for Risk Management: A Systems Engineering Perspective

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(The MITRE Corporation, Bedford, Massachusetts, USA)
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Garvey (risk management, MITRE Corp.) has written a textbook on managing risk in both traditional and advanced engineering systems. Topics cover identifying, analyzing, measuring, and managing risk. It also includes essays on analytical topics such as writing, prioritizing, and representing risks, and monitoring progress during mitigation of a risk's possible adverse effects. Chapters include exercises and references. The book is intended for upper division undergraduate or graduate students in systems engineering, program management, or engineering management. Annotation ©2009 Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com)

A Text on the Foundation Processes, Analytical Principles, and Implementation Practices of Engineering Risk Management

Drawing from the author’s many years of hands-on experience in the field, Analytical Methods for Risk Management: A Systems Engineering Perspectivepresents the foundation processes and analytical practices for identifying, analyzing, measuring, and managing risk in traditional systems, systems-of-systems, and enterprise systems.

Balances Risk and Decision Theory with Case Studies and Exercises

After an introduction to engineering risk management, the book covers the fundamental axioms and properties of probability as well as key aspects of decision analysis, such as preference theory and risk/utility functions. It concludes with a series of essays on major analytical topics, including how to identify, write, and represent risks; prioritize risks in terms of their potential impacts on a systems project; and monitor progress when mitigating a risk’s potential adverse effects. The author also examines technical performance measures and how they can combine into an index to track an engineering system’s overall performance risk. In addition, he discusses risk management in the context of engineering complex, large-scale enterprise systems.

Applies Various Methods to Risk Engineering and Analysis Problems

This practical guide enables an understanding of which processes and analytical techniques are valid and how they are best applied to specific systems engineering environments. After reading this book, you will be on your way to managing risk on both traditional and advanced engineering systems.

Preface xi
Acknowledgments xv
1 Engineering Risk Management
1.1 Introduction
1
1.2 Engineering Risk Management Objectives
2
1.3 Overview of Process and Practice
3
1.4 New Perspectives on Engineering Systems
6
Questions and Exercises
10
References
12
2 Elements of Probability Theory
2.1 Introduction
13
2.2 Interpretations and Axioms
13
2.3 Conditional Probability and Bayes' Rule
19
2.4 Applications to Engineering Risk Management
28
2.4.1 Probability Inference — An Application of Bayes' Rule
28
2.4.2 Writing a Risk Statement
31
Questions and Exercises
34
References
38
3 Elements of Decision Analysis
3.1 Introduction
39
3.2 The Value Function
39
3.3 Risk and Utility Functions
62
3.4 Applications to Engineering Risk Management
91
Questions and Exercises
100
References
102
4 Analytical Topics in Engineering Risk Management
4.1 Introduction
105
4.2 Risk Identification and Approaches
105
4.3 Risk Analysis and Risk Prioritization
112
4.3.1 Ordinal Approaches and the Borda Algorithm
113
4.3.2 A Value Function Approach
133
4.3.3 Variations on the Additive Value Model
146
4.3.4 Incorporating Uncertainty
155
4.4 Risk Management and Progress Monitoring
166
4.4.1 Risk Handling Approaches
166
4.4.2 Monitoring Progress — A Performance Index Measure
167
4.4.3 Allocating Resources — A Simple Knapsack Model
176
4.5 Measuring Technical Performance Risk
181
4.5.1 A Technical Performance Risk Index Measure
182
4.5.2 An Approach for Systems-of-Systems
194
4.6 Risk Management for Engineering Enterprise Systems
202
4.6.1 The Enterprise Problem Space
203
4.6.2 Enterprise Risk Management: A Capabilities-Based Approach
209
4.6.3 The "Cutting Edge"
235
Questions and Exercises
236
References
241
Appendix A A Geometric Approach for Ranking Risks 243
Appendix B Success Factors in Engineering Risk Management 251
Index 255
The MITRE Corporation, Bedford, Massachusetts, USA
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