Muutke küpsiste eelistusi

E-raamat: Apocalypse Soon?: Wagering on Warnings of Global Catastrophe

  • Formaat: 160 pages
  • Ilmumisaeg: 01-Oct-2002
  • Kirjastus: McGill-Queen's University Press
  • Keel: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9780773570597
  • Formaat - PDF+DRM
  • Hind: 80,65 €*
  • * hind on lõplik, st. muud allahindlused enam ei rakendu
  • Lisa ostukorvi
  • Lisa soovinimekirja
  • See e-raamat on mõeldud ainult isiklikuks kasutamiseks. E-raamatuid ei saa tagastada.
  • Formaat: 160 pages
  • Ilmumisaeg: 01-Oct-2002
  • Kirjastus: McGill-Queen's University Press
  • Keel: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9780773570597

DRM piirangud

  • Kopeerimine (copy/paste):

    ei ole lubatud

  • Printimine:

    ei ole lubatud

  • Kasutamine:

    Digitaalõiguste kaitse (DRM)
    Kirjastus on väljastanud selle e-raamatu krüpteeritud kujul, mis tähendab, et selle lugemiseks peate installeerima spetsiaalse tarkvara. Samuti peate looma endale  Adobe ID Rohkem infot siin. E-raamatut saab lugeda 1 kasutaja ning alla laadida kuni 6'de seadmesse (kõik autoriseeritud sama Adobe ID-ga).

    Vajalik tarkvara
    Mobiilsetes seadmetes (telefon või tahvelarvuti) lugemiseks peate installeerima selle tasuta rakenduse: PocketBook Reader (iOS / Android)

    PC või Mac seadmes lugemiseks peate installima Adobe Digital Editionsi (Seeon tasuta rakendus spetsiaalselt e-raamatute lugemiseks. Seda ei tohi segamini ajada Adober Reader'iga, mis tõenäoliselt on juba teie arvutisse installeeritud )

    Seda e-raamatut ei saa lugeda Amazon Kindle's. 

Apocalypse Soon? is about environmental decision-making. Stephen Haller examines claims about the risk of global catastrophe and describes the models of global systems that predict catastrophe. He explains the conditions of a good prediction and shows that models that generate predictions of catastrophe leave us uncertain about the likelihood of catastrophe - our best science can give us no assurance that doomsday is either likely or unlikely.


Using arguments that parallel those of Blaise Pascal and William James, Haller offers prudential reasons for caution that should convince those not already persuaded by ethical arguments. While models of global systems can reveal only possible, not probable, futures, the catastrophic threats posed by such things as global warming, ozone depletion, or population increase represent what James would call "live options": that is, they present us with a plausible possibility that forces us to make momentous decisions. Haller concludes that we cannot afford to risk catastrophe, despite the high costs this decision involves.

Arvustused

"A splendid and important book. The public needs better guidance in interpreting what is heard in media reports about climate change and this book is enormously helpful in this regard, and will be widely referred to as the issue unfolds over the next five years." William Leiss, author of In the Chamber of Risks: Understanding Risk Controversies. "Haller has an important contribution to make. He is clear, persuasive, and does a good job at bringing together different strains of thinking in environmental decision making. His book is extremely timely and environmentalists are in dire need of guidance when it comes to decision making in the face of scientific uncertainty." Ingrid Leman Stefanovic, Department of Philosophy, University of Toronto

Muu info

A timely examination of what to believe and what to do about predictions of global catastrophe.
Acknowledgments ix
Preface xi
Introduction 3(8)
PART ONE: PREDICTIONS OF GLOBAL CATASTROPHE BASED ON CURRENT MODELS OF GLOBAL SYSTEMS ARE UNCERTAIN
Four Models of Global Systems
11(14)
What Is a Scientific Model, and What Do We Do with One?
25(8)
Assessing Models of Global Systems: Direct Tests
33(6)
Two Requirements for Successful Prediction
39(14)
Assessing Models of Global Systems: Indirect Tests
53(12)
Dilemmas and Defences
65(14)
PART TWO: IN POLICY ABOUT GLOBAL RISK, PRECAUTION WILL MAXIMIZE EXPECTED UTILITIES
From Models to Decisions: Science and Values in Decision-making
79(8)
Decision-making Under Uncertainty and High Risk
87(27)
Rival Rationalities: Democratic Epistemology
114(27)
A Pascalian Argument for Precaution
141(24)
Notes 165(12)
Bibliography 177(6)
Index 183