Preface |
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xii | |
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Contributors |
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xv | |
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1 | (76) |
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1 Introduction to Bayesian Inverse Problems |
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3 | (22) |
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3 | (1) |
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1.2 Sources of uncertainty |
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4 | (1) |
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1.3 Formal definition of probability |
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5 | (1) |
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1.4 Interpretations of probability |
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6 | (2) |
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1.4.1 Physical probability |
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7 | (1) |
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1.4.2 Subjective probability |
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7 | (1) |
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1.5 Probability fundamentals |
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8 | (2) |
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8 | (1) |
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1.5.2 Total probability theorem |
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9 | (1) |
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1.6 The Bayesian approach to inverse problems |
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10 | (4) |
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1.6.1 The forward problem |
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11 | (2) |
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1.6.2 The inverse problem |
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13 | (1) |
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1.7 Bayesian inference of model parameters |
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14 | (5) |
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1.7.1 Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods |
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18 | (1) |
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1.7.1.1 Metropolis-Hasting algorithm |
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18 | (1) |
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1.8 Bayesian model class selection |
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19 | (5) |
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1.8.1 Computation of the evidence of a model class |
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21 | (2) |
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1.8.2 Information-theory approach to model-class selection |
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23 | (1) |
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24 | (1) |
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2 Solving Inverse Problems by Approximate Bayesian Computation |
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25 | (14) |
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2.1 Introduction to the ABC method |
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25 | (5) |
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2.2 Basis of ABC using Subset Simulation |
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30 | (4) |
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2.2.1 Introduction to Subset Simulation |
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30 | (3) |
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2.2.2 Subset Simulation for ABC |
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33 | (1) |
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2.3 The ABC-SubSim algorithm |
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34 | (2) |
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36 | (3) |
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3 Fundamentals of Sequential System Monitoring and Prognostics Methods |
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39 | (22) |
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39 | (4) |
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3.1.1 Prognostics and SHM |
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40 | (1) |
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3.1.2 Damage response modelling |
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40 | (1) |
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3.1.3 Interpreting uncertainty for prognostics |
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41 | (1) |
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3.1.4 Prognostic performance metrics |
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41 | (2) |
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3.2 Bayesian tracking methods |
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43 | (9) |
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3.2.1 Linear Bayesian Processor: The Kalman Filter |
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44 | (2) |
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3.2.2 Unscented Transformation and Sigma Points: The Unscented Kalman Filter |
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46 | (3) |
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3.2.3 Sequential Monte Carlo methods: Particle Filters |
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49 | (1) |
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3.2.3.1 Sequential importance sampling |
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50 | (1) |
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51 | (1) |
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3.3 Calculation of EOL and RUL |
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52 | (8) |
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3.3.1 The failure prognosis problem |
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53 | (2) |
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3.3.2 Future state prediction |
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55 | (5) |
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60 | (1) |
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4 Parameter Identification Based on Conditional Expectation |
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61 | (16) |
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61 | (5) |
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4.1.1 Preliminaries---basics of probability and information |
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63 | (1) |
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63 | (1) |
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64 | (1) |
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4.1.3 Conditional expectation |
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65 | (1) |
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4.2 The Mean Square Error Estimator |
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66 | (4) |
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4.2.1 Numerical approximation of the MMSE |
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67 | (1) |
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68 | (2) |
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4.3 Parameter identification using the MMSE |
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70 | (6) |
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70 | (2) |
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72 | (1) |
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73 | (3) |
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76 | (1) |
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Part II Engineering Applications |
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77 | (30) |
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5 Sparse Bayesian Learning and its Application in Bayesian System Identification |
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79 | (28) |
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79 | (2) |
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5.2 Sparse Bayesian learning |
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81 | (3) |
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5.2.1 General formulation of sparse Bayesian learning with the ARD prior |
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81 | (2) |
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5.2.2 Bayesian Ockham's razor implementation in sparse Bayesian learning |
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83 | (1) |
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5.3 Applying sparse Bayesian learning to system identification |
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84 | (11) |
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5.3.1 Hierarchical Bayesian model class for system identification |
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84 | (4) |
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5.3.2 Fast sparse Bayesian learning algorithm |
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88 | (1) |
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88 | (5) |
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5.3.2.2 Proposed fast SBL algorithm for stiffness inversion |
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93 | (1) |
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5.3.2.3 Damage assessment |
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94 | (1) |
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95 | (10) |
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105 | (2) |
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107 | (98) |
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Appendix A Derivation of MAP estimation equations for a and ft |
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109 | (4) |
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6 Ultrasonic Guided-waves Based Bayesian Damage Localisation and Optimal Sensor Configuration |
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113 | (20) |
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Sergio Cantero-Chinchilla |
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113 | (1) |
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114 | (11) |
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6.2.1 Time-frequency model selection |
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115 | (1) |
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6.2.1.1 Stochastic embedding of TF models |
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115 | (1) |
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6.2.1.2 Model parameters estimation |
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116 | (1) |
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6.2.1.3 Model class assessment |
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117 | (5) |
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6.2.2 Bayesian damage localisation |
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122 | (1) |
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6.2.2.1 Probabilistic description of ToF model |
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122 | (1) |
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6.2.2.2 Model parameter estimation |
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123 | (2) |
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6.3 Optimal sensor configuration |
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125 | (6) |
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6.3.1 Value of information for optimal design |
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126 | (1) |
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6.3.2 Expected value of information |
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127 | (1) |
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6.3.2.1 Algorithmic implementation |
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127 | (4) |
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131 | (2) |
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7 Fast Bayesian Approach for Stochastic Model Updating using Modal Information from Multiple Setups |
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133 | (22) |
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133 | (1) |
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7.2 Probabilistic consideration of frequency-domain responses |
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134 | (2) |
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7.2.1 PDF of multivariate FFT coefficients |
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134 | (1) |
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135 | (1) |
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7.2.3 PDF of the trace of the PSD matrix |
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135 | (1) |
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7.3 A two-stage fast Bayesian operational modal analysis |
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136 | (3) |
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7.3.1 Prediction error model connecting modal responses and measurements |
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136 | (1) |
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7.3.2 Spectrum variables identification using FBSTA |
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137 | (1) |
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7.3.3 Mode shape identification using FBSDA |
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138 | (1) |
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7.3.4 Statistical modal information for model updating |
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139 | (1) |
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7.4 Bayesian model updating with modal data from multiple setups |
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139 | (5) |
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7.4.1 Structural model class |
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139 | (1) |
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7.4.2 Formulation of Bayesian model updating |
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140 | (1) |
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7.4.2.1 The introduction of instrumental variables system mode shapes |
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140 | (1) |
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7.4.2.2 Probability model connecting `system mode shapes' and measured local mode shape |
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140 | (1) |
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7.4.2.3 Probability model for the eigenvalue equation errors |
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141 | (1) |
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7.4.2.4 Negative log-likelihood function for model updating |
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142 | (1) |
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142 | (2) |
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144 | (3) |
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7.5.1 Robustness test of the probabilistic model of trace of PSD matrix |
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144 | (1) |
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7.5.2 Bayesian operational modal analysis |
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145 | (1) |
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7.5.3 Bayesian model updating |
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146 | (1) |
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147 | (5) |
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7.6.1 Bayesian operational modal analysis |
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149 | (1) |
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7.6.2 Bayesian model updating |
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150 | (2) |
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152 | (3) |
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8 A Worked-out Example of Surrogate-based Bayesian Parameter and Field Identification Methods |
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155 | (50) |
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155 | (2) |
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8.2 Numerical modelling of seabed displacement |
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157 | (7) |
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8.2.1 The deterministic computation of seabed displacements |
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157 | (2) |
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8.2.2 Modified probabilistic formulation |
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159 | (5) |
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164 | (7) |
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8.3.1 Computation of the surrogate by orthogonal projection |
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165 | (4) |
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8.3.2 Computation of statistics |
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169 | (1) |
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8.3.3 Validating surrogate models |
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170 | (1) |
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8.4 Efficient representation of random fields |
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171 | (8) |
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8.4.1 Karhunen-Loeve Expansion (KLE) |
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171 | (2) |
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8.4.2 Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) |
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173 | (6) |
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8.5 Identification of the compressibility field |
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179 | (23) |
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179 | (1) |
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8.5.2 Sampling-based procedures---the MCMC method |
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180 | (5) |
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8.5.3 The Kalman filter and its modified versions |
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185 | (1) |
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8.5.3.1 The Kalman filter |
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185 | (1) |
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8.5.3.2 The ensemble Kalman filter |
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186 | (2) |
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8.5.3.3 The PCE-based Kalman filter |
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188 | (5) |
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193 | (9) |
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8.6 Summary, conclusion, and outlook |
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202 | (3) |
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205 | (12) |
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Appendix A FEM computation of seabed displacements |
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207 | (2) |
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Appendix B Hermite polynomials |
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209 | (3) |
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B.1 Generation of Hermite Polynomials |
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209 | (2) |
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B.2 Calculation of the norms |
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211 | (1) |
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B.3 Quadrature points and weights |
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211 | (1) |
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Appendix C Galerkin solution of the Karhunen Loeve eigenfunction problem |
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212 | (4) |
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Appendix D Computation of the PCE Coefficients by Orthogonal projection |
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216 | (1) |
Bibliography |
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217 | (14) |
Index |
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231 | |