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E-raamat: Business Forecasting: A Practical Approach

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(Daniel Webster College, USA)
  • Formaat: 384 pages
  • Ilmumisaeg: 04-Dec-2009
  • Kirjastus: Routledge
  • ISBN-13: 9781135257125
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Business Forecasting: A Practical ApproachSuurem pilt
  • Formaat: 384 pages
  • Ilmumisaeg: 04-Dec-2009
  • Kirjastus: Routledge
  • ISBN-13: 9781135257125
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The information age has brought greater interconnection across the world, and transformed the global marketplace. To remain competitive, business firms look for ways of improving their ability to gauge business and economic conditions around the world. At the same time, advances in technology have revolutionized the way we process information and prepare business and economic forecasts. Secondary data searches, data collection, data entry and analysis, graphical visualization, and reporting can all be accomplished with the help of computers that provide access to information not previously available. Forecasters should therefore learn the techniques and models involved, as applied in this new era.

Business Forecasting: A Practical Approach is intended as an applied text for students and practitioners of forecasting who have some background in economics and statistics. The presentation is conceptual in nature with emphasis on rationale, application, and interpretation of the most commonly used forecasting techniques. The goal of this book is to provide students and managers with an overview of a broad range of techniques and an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of each approach. It is based on the assumption that forecasting skills are best developed and retained by starting with simple models, followed by repeated exposure to real world examples. The book makes extensive use of international examples to amplify concepts.
Preface xi
Forecasting for Management Decisions: An Introduction
1(8)
Forecasting and Decision Making
2(2)
The Art and Science of Forecasting
4(1)
The Forecasting Process
5(4)
References and Suggested Reading
8(1)
Data Patterns and Choice of Forecasting Techniques
9(27)
Data Patterns
9(8)
Forecasting Methodologies
17(2)
Technique Selection
19(3)
Model Evaluation
22(14)
Chapter Summary
30(1)
Review Questions
31(3)
References and Suggested Reading
34(2)
The Macroeconomy and Business Forecasts
36(10)
Phases of the Business Cycle
36(3)
Macroeconomic Models and Forecasting
39(1)
Use of Macroeconomic Models at the Industry and Firm Level
40(6)
Chapter Summary
42(2)
References and Suggested Reading
44(2)
Data Collection and Analysis in Forecasting
46(55)
Prliminary Adjustments to Data
46(6)
Data Transformation
52(6)
Pateters in Time Series Data
58(2)
The Classical Decomposition Method of Time Series Forecasting
60(41)
Chapter Summary
91(1)
Case Study
92(2)
Review Questions
94(6)
References and Suggested Reading
100(1)
Forecasting with Smoothing Techniques
101(48)
Naive Model
102(3)
Forecasting with Averaging Models
105(7)
Exponential Smoothing Models
112(6)
Higher Form of Smoothing
118(31)
Chapter Summary
134(1)
Case Study
135(5)
Review Questions
140(4)
References and Suggested Reading
144(2)
Use of Excel
146(3)
Adaptive Filtering as a Forecasting Technique
149(15)
Chapter Summary
158(2)
Review Questions
160(3)
References and Suggested Reading
163(1)
Forecasting with Simple Regression
164(42)
Regression Analysis: The Linear Model
166(7)
The Standard Error of Estimate
173(3)
Correlation Analysis
176(6)
Inferences Regarding Regression and Correlation Coefficients
182(3)
An Application Using Excel
185(5)
An Application of the Regression Model
190(4)
Curvilinear Regression Analysis
194(12)
Chapter Summary
200(1)
Review Questions
200(4)
References and Suggested Reading
204(2)
Forecasting with Multiple Regression
206(40)
Estimating the Multiple Regression Equation---The Least Squares Method
207(5)
The Standard Error of Estimate
212(1)
Multiple Correlation Analysis
213(4)
Inferences Regarding the Regression and Correlation Coefficients
217(5)
Validation of the Regression Model for Forecasting
222(15)
Curvilinear Regression Analysis
237(2)
Application to Management
239(7)
Chapter Summary
240(1)
Review Questions
241(3)
References and Suggested Reading
244(2)
Advanced Regression Methodologies in Forecasting
246(24)
Proxy and Dummy Variables
246(7)
Selection of Independent Variables
253(4)
Lagged Variables
257(13)
Chapter Summary
264(2)
Review Questions
266(2)
References and Suggested Reading
268(2)
The Box-Jenkins Method of Forecasting
270(39)
The Box-Jankins Models
271(6)
Forecasting with Autoregressive (AR) Models
277(2)
Forecasting with Moving Average (MA) Models
279(2)
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Models
281(1)
Trends and Seasonality in Time Series
281(28)
Chapter Summary
300(3)
Case Study
303(2)
Review Questions
305(2)
References and Suggested Reading
307(2)
Communicating Forecasts to Management
309(7)
Forecasts and Their Use in Managerial Decisions
309(1)
Presentation of Forecasts to Management
309(4)
The Future of Business Forecasting
313(3)
Chapter Summary
314(1)
References and Suggested Reading
314(2)
Appendices
316(47)
Student t Distribution
316(2)
Critical Values for the F Distribution
318(5)
The Durbin-Watson Statistic
323(3)
Chi-Square (Χ2) Distribution
326(2)
Minitab Guide
328(35)
Index 363
A. Reza Hoshmand is associate dean of graduate studies and chair of the Business and Management Division at Daniel Webster College. He holds a Ph.D. in resource economics from the University of Maryland and has published nearly a dozen books and manuals, including Design of Experiments for Agriculture and the Natural Sciences, 2nd Edition (Chapman and Hall\CRC Press, 2006), Business and Economic Forecasting for the Information Age: A Practical Approach (Quorum, 2002) and, Statistical Methods for Environmental and Agricultural Sciences, Second Edition (CRC Press, 1997.) He has also written more than two dozen journal articles, technical reports and other papers.

Recently named a Fulbright Scholar to research foreign direct investment in China, Professor Hoshmand has garnered numerous other honors and awards including being nominated for the "Excellence in Teaching Award" by the University of Hawaii Board of Regents and being included in Whos Who in the West, 26th edition. Prior to coming to Daniel Webster in 2001, Professor Hoshmand was a Professor of Economics and Finance at Lesley Universitys School of Management. He has been a faculty member at the University of Hawaii, and with the California State University at Pomona. At Cal Poly Pomona, he was the interim director, International Center, and associate dean, College of Agriculture. He also held numerous other academic appointments during his career, including economics lecturer at Harvard and Tufts Universities. In 1991 Professor Hoshmand, was a visiting lecturer, economics, at the University of Hong Kong.
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