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E-raamat: Chipping Away at Public Debt: Sources of Failure and Keys to Success in Fiscal Adjustment

  • Formaat: PDF+DRM
  • Ilmumisaeg: 16-Jun-2011
  • Kirjastus: John Wiley & Sons Inc
  • Keel: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9781118113042
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  • Formaat: PDF+DRM
  • Ilmumisaeg: 16-Jun-2011
  • Kirjastus: John Wiley & Sons Inc
  • Keel: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9781118113042
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"This book, edited and researched by experts at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), looks at fiscal adjustment plans in advanced economies, comparing the planned or projected reductions in debts and deficits to the actual outcomes. It also looks at whether spending exceeded expectations or revenues fell short of expectations, and why, and whether planned debt reductions proceeded faster or slower than projected. The concluding chapters provide an overview of what conclusions can be drawn from the chapters in terms of lessons learned and how to have the best chance for successful fiscal adjustments"--

Provided by publisher.

Path-breaking research on one of the most important macroeconomic policy challenges in the post-crisis world, presented in accessible language

Written and researched by a team of experts from the International Monetary Fund, other policy-making institutions, and academia, this timely book looks at fiscal adjustment plans in advanced economies, comparing the planned or projected reductions in debts and deficits to the actual outcomes, and explaining why objectives were met in some cases but missed in others. An overview reveals pitfalls to avoid and lessons learned for securing successful fiscal adjustment.

  • Written by experts in the field
  • Addresses public concern about skyrocketing government debts
  • Contains cutting edge research that changes the way we look at fiscal adjustment
  • Presents meticulous archival research in compelling and engaging case studies
  • Explores lessons learned and policy implications going forward
  • Includes country coverage of all G7 and European Union economies

Educating and informing investors, economists, and the general public, this important book looks at why some attempts to curb debts and deficits succeed whereas others fail, as well as how to ensure successful fiscal adjustment in the period ahead.

Arvustused

"This analytical cross-country study of fiscal adjustment will be highly relevant for several countries, especially those in the euro area that, in the context of the new European governance, will follow a path of public debt reduction in the years ahead." Carlo Azeglio Ciampi, Emeritus President of the Italian Republic (President, 19992006; Finance Minister, 19961999) "Unfortunately, out of necessity, the issues of debt and deficit dominate the national debate in too many countries. The experience of others can often provide a guide to solutionswhat to do and what not to do. In this context, this book will prove invaluable." The Right Honorable Paul Martin, former Finance Minister (19932002) and Prime Minister (20032006) of Canada

"Budget consolidation may well be the defining macroeconomic issue for the industrialized world over the next decade. The budget debate is as unbalanced as the budget. Ideology and rhetoric dominate in places where evidence and logic should dominate. This important book balances the debate by providing careful and analytic evidence on all the important tradeoffs. It is a must-read for everyone concerned about our fiscal future." Lawrence H. Summers, University Professor at Harvard University; former Director, National Economic Council (20092011); Secretary of the U.S. Treasury (19992001)

"Reducing public debt will be the main policy issue for the next decade. This volume greatly helps us understand how to do it in a way that achieves the intended objectives despite unexpected events that will inevitably occur. We don't know as much as we should about fiscal policy: this volume improves our understanding with a careful analysis of many international examples of fiscal adjustment. A great read." Alberto Alesina, Professor of Political Economy, Harvard University

"How should countries around the world deal with their burgeoning levels of national debt? This timely book's detailed case studies illustrate that though failure is common, there is also more than one path to success and a number of key principles that can serve as a guide to navigation." Alan J. Auerbach, Professor of Economics and Law, Director of the Burch Center for Tax Policy and Public Finance, University of California, Berkeley

"There are few questions more important in the U.S. and Europe today than how public debt will be brought under control. Chipping Away at Public Debt reviews a wealth of experience with large-scale fiscal adjustment plans in advanced economies, drawing on country studies as well as statistical analysis. The authors reach useful and sometimes unexpected conclusions. In particular, economic factors such as 'growth surprises' are perhaps even more important than political factors in determining success." Dani Rodrik, Professor of International Political Economy, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University

Foreword ix
Acknowledgments xi
Introduction xiii
Chapter 1 Canada: A Success Story
1(30)
Cemile Sancak
Lucy Qian Liu
Taisuke Nakata
Introduction
1(1)
Background
2(5)
Plans versus Outcomes: Macroeconomic Factors
7(6)
Nature and Composition of Adjustment
13(8)
Structural Reforms
21(2)
Extent to which Adjustments Were Sustained
23(2)
Conclusion
25(2)
Notes
27(4)
Chapter 2 United States: The Quest for Fiscal Discipline
31(26)
Jiri Jonas
Introduction
31(2)
First Attempt Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act 1985
33(3)
Second Attempt Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1990
36(2)
Third Attempt Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993
38(4)
Actual versus Projected Fiscal Performance under Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993
42(2)
1990s Deficit Reduction: Good Policy or Good Luck?
44(6)
Easy Won, Easy Lost?
50(2)
Conclusion
52(2)
Notes
54(3)
Chapter 3 France: Virtue and Fortune
57(28)
Edouard Martin
Irina Tytell
Irina Yakadina
Introduction: Factors Underlying the Need for Fiscal Consolidation
57(4)
Early Attempts at Fiscal Adjustment
61(3)
A First Attempt at Medium-Term Fiscal Consolidation, 1994-97
64(8)
A More Systematic Approach to Medium-Term Budgeting: Consolidation Experiences under the Stability and Growth Pact
72(9)
Conclusion
81(1)
Notes
82(3)
Chapter 4 Germany: Fiscal Adjustment Attempts With and Without Reforms
85(30)
Christian Breuer
Jan Gottschalk
Anna Ivanova
Introduction
85(3)
1975-79 Consolidation Attempt
88(5)
1981-85 Consolidation Attempt
93(6)
1991-95 Consolidation Attempt
99(6)
2003-07 Consolidation Attempt
105(5)
Lessons
110(2)
Notes
112(3)
Chapter 5 United Kingdom: Four Chancellors Facing Challenges
115(38)
Toni Ahnert
Richard Hughes
Keiko Takabashi
Introduction
115(1)
Selection of Consolidation Plans
116(1)
Background, Content, and Performance of the Four Adjustment Plans
117(8)
Determinants of Success and Failure
125(13)
Lessons from Success and Failure
138(12)
Appendix 5A United Kingdom: Fiscal Adjustment Plans and Outturns
140(10)
Notes
150(3)
Chapter 6 Italy: Medium-Term Fiscal Planning under Frequent Government Changes
153(24)
Fabrizio Balassone
Sandro Momigliano
Pietro Rizza
Introduction
153(2)
A Brief History of Italy's Fiscal Planning Framework
155(2)
Short-Term Origins of Medium-Term Failures
157(5)
A Narrative of Design and Performance of Pre- and Post-European Monetary Unit Plans
162(3)
Implementing Plans for the Year Ahead
165(2)
Two Important Plans Analyzed in Detail
167(5)
Conclusion
172(2)
Notes
174(3)
Chapter 7 Japan: Fiscal Adjustment Plans and Macroeconomic Shocks
177(36)
Keiko Takahashi
Kiichi Tokuoka
Introduction
177(1)
The 1997 Fiscal Structural Reform Act
178(11)
Medium-Term Fiscal Adjustment Plans: Fiscal Year 2002 and the Following
189(14)
Conclusion
203(6)
Appendix 7A The Bohn Fiscal Sustainability Test
206(3)
Appendix 7B Timeline of Medium-Term Fiscal Adjustment Plans in Japan
209(1)
Notes
209(4)
Chapter 8 The Performance of Large Fiscal Adjustment Plans in the European Union: A Cross-Country Statistical Analysis
213(36)
S. Ali Abbas
Fuad Hasanov
Paolo Mauro
Junhyung Park
Introduction
213(3)
Data, Sample Selection, and Methodology
216(3)
Descriptive Analysis
219(13)
Regression Analysis
232(9)
Conclusion
241(5)
Appendix 8A Data Issues and Cyclical Adjustment
243(2)
Appendix 8B Timeline for European Monetary Integration (1990-2009)
245(1)
Notes
246(3)
Chapter 9 Conclusion
249(10)
Key Findings: What Failed and What Worked in Past Attempts at Fiscal Adjustment
251(4)
Implications for Planned Adjustments
255(3)
Notes
258(1)
References 259(8)
About the Project Team 267(4)
Index 271
PAOLO MAURO is a Division Chief in the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department. He has published several articles in top economics journals and is coauthor of Emerging Markets and Financial Globalization: Sovereign Bond Spreads in 18701913 and Today. The IMF is an organization of 187 countries, working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty around the world. Its Fiscal Affairs Department provides policy and technical advice on public finance issues to member countries.