|
1 An Abridged Introduction to Finance |
|
|
1 | (36) |
|
|
1 | (18) |
|
1.1.1 Bonds and the Continuous Compounding of Interest Rates |
|
|
2 | (2) |
|
1.1.2 Stocks: Trade, Price and Indices |
|
|
4 | (8) |
|
1.1.3 Options and Other Derivatives |
|
|
12 | (6) |
|
1.1.4 Portfolios and Collective Investment |
|
|
18 | (1) |
|
1.2 Financial Engineering |
|
|
19 | (14) |
|
1.2.1 Trading Positions and Attitudes |
|
|
19 | (3) |
|
1.2.2 On Price and Value of Stocks. The Discounted Cash Flow model |
|
|
22 | (3) |
|
1.2.3 Arbitrage and Risk-Neutral Valuation Principle |
|
|
25 | (6) |
|
1.2.4 The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Computational Complexity |
|
|
31 | (2) |
|
1.3 Notes, Computer Lab and Problems |
|
|
33 | (4) |
|
2 Statistics of Financial Time Series |
|
|
37 | (34) |
|
2.1 Time Series of Returns |
|
|
37 | (6) |
|
2.2 Distributions, Density Functions and Moments |
|
|
43 | (13) |
|
2.2.1 Distributions and Probability Density Functions |
|
|
43 | (2) |
|
2.2.2 Moments of a Random Variable |
|
|
45 | (4) |
|
2.2.3 The Normal Distribution |
|
|
49 | (2) |
|
2.2.4 Distributions of Financial Returns |
|
|
51 | (5) |
|
2.3 Stationarity and Autocovariance |
|
|
56 | (4) |
|
|
60 | (2) |
|
2.5 Maximum Likelihood Methods |
|
|
62 | (2) |
|
|
64 | (3) |
|
2.7 Notes, Computer Lab and Problems |
|
|
67 | (4) |
|
3 Correlations, Causalities and Similarities |
|
|
71 | (38) |
|
3.1 Correlation as a Measure of Association |
|
|
72 | (6) |
|
|
72 | (4) |
|
3.1.2 Properties of a Dependence Measure |
|
|
76 | (1) |
|
|
77 | (1) |
|
|
78 | (6) |
|
|
79 | (2) |
|
3.2.2 Non Parametric Granger Causality |
|
|
81 | (3) |
|
3.3 Grouping by Similarities |
|
|
84 | (19) |
|
3.3.1 Basics of Data Clustering |
|
|
85 | (2) |
|
|
87 | (7) |
|
3.3.3 Clustering Validation and a Summary of Clustering Analysis |
|
|
94 | (1) |
|
3.3.4 Time Series Evolving Clusters Graph |
|
|
95 | (8) |
|
3.4 Stylized Empirical Facts of Asset Returns |
|
|
103 | (1) |
|
3.5 Notes, Computer Lab and Problems |
|
|
104 | (5) |
|
4 Time Series Models in Finance |
|
|
109 | (36) |
|
4.1 On Trend and Seasonality |
|
|
110 | (1) |
|
4.2 Linear Processes and Autoregressive Moving Averages Models |
|
|
111 | (13) |
|
4.3 Nonlinear Models ARCH and GARCH |
|
|
124 | (6) |
|
|
124 | (3) |
|
|
127 | (3) |
|
4.4 Nonlinear Semiparametric Models |
|
|
130 | (6) |
|
|
131 | (3) |
|
4.4.2 Support Vector Machines |
|
|
134 | (2) |
|
4.5 Model Adequacy and Model Evaluation |
|
|
136 | (4) |
|
4.5.1 Tests for Nonlinearity |
|
|
137 | (1) |
|
4.5.2 Tests of Model Performance |
|
|
138 | (2) |
|
4.6 Appendix: NNet and SVM Modeling in R |
|
|
140 | (2) |
|
4.7 Notes, Computer Lab and Problems |
|
|
142 | (3) |
|
5 Brownian Motion, Binomial Trees and Monte Carlo Simulation |
|
|
145 | (32) |
|
5.1 Continuous Time Processes |
|
|
145 | (8) |
|
|
146 | (3) |
|
5.1.2 Ito's Lemma and Geometric Brownian Motion |
|
|
149 | (4) |
|
5.2 Option Pricing Models: Continuous and Discrete Time |
|
|
153 | (11) |
|
5.2.1 The Black-Scholes Formula for Valuing European Options |
|
|
154 | (4) |
|
5.2.2 The Binomial Tree Option Pricing Model |
|
|
158 | (6) |
|
5.3 Monte Carlo Valuation of Derivatives |
|
|
164 | (8) |
|
5.4 Notes, Computer Lab and Problems |
|
|
172 | (5) |
|
6 Trade on Pattern Mining or Value Estimation |
|
|
177 | (30) |
|
|
177 | (19) |
|
6.1.1 Dow's Theory and Technical Analysis Basic Principles |
|
|
178 | (2) |
|
6.1.2 Charts, Support and Resistance Levels, and Trends |
|
|
180 | (3) |
|
6.1.3 Technical Trading Rules |
|
|
183 | (7) |
|
6.1.4 A Mathematical Foundation for Technical Analysis |
|
|
190 | (6) |
|
|
196 | (8) |
|
6.2.1 Fundamental Analysis Basic Principles |
|
|
196 | (1) |
|
6.2.2 Business Indicators |
|
|
197 | (2) |
|
|
199 | (3) |
|
|
202 | (2) |
|
6.3 Notes, Computer Lab and Problems |
|
|
204 | (3) |
|
7 Optimization Heuristics in Finance |
|
|
207 | (32) |
|
7.1 Combinatorial Optimization Problems |
|
|
207 | (2) |
|
|
209 | (4) |
|
7.2.1 The Basics of Simulated Annealing |
|
|
210 | (1) |
|
7.2.2 Estimating a GARCH(1, 1) with Simulated Annealing |
|
|
211 | (2) |
|
|
213 | (13) |
|
7.3.1 The Basics of Genetic Programming |
|
|
215 | (3) |
|
7.3.2 Finding Profitable Trading Rules with Genetic Programming |
|
|
218 | (8) |
|
7.4 Ant Colony Optimization |
|
|
226 | (7) |
|
7.4.1 The Basics of Ant Colony Optimization |
|
|
227 | (2) |
|
7.4.2 Valuing Options with Ant Colony Optimization |
|
|
229 | (4) |
|
|
233 | (1) |
|
7.6 Practical Considerations on the Use of Optimization Heuristics |
|
|
234 | (2) |
|
7.7 Notes, Computer Lab and Problems |
|
|
236 | (3) |
|
|
239 | (28) |
|
8.1 The Mean-Variance Model |
|
|
239 | (8) |
|
8.1.1 The Mean-Variance Rule and Diversification |
|
|
239 | (2) |
|
8.1.2 Minimum Risk Mean-Variance Portfolio |
|
|
241 | (2) |
|
8.1.3 The Efficient Frontier and the Minimum Variance Portfolio |
|
|
243 | (1) |
|
8.1.4 General Mean-Variance Model and the Maximum Return Portfolio |
|
|
244 | (3) |
|
8.2 Portfolios with a Risk-Free Asset |
|
|
247 | (9) |
|
8.2.1 The Capital Market Line and the Market Portfolio |
|
|
249 | (1) |
|
|
250 | (1) |
|
8.2.3 The Capital Asset Pricing Model and the Beta of a Security |
|
|
251 | (5) |
|
8.3 Optimization of Portfolios Under Different Constraint Sets |
|
|
256 | (4) |
|
8.3.1 Portfolios with Upper and Lower Bounds in Holdings |
|
|
257 | (1) |
|
8.3.2 Portfolios with Limited Number of Assets |
|
|
258 | (1) |
|
8.3.3 Simulated Annealing Optimization of Portfolios |
|
|
259 | (1) |
|
|
260 | (3) |
|
8.5 Notes, Computer Lab and Problems |
|
|
263 | (4) |
|
|
267 | (16) |
|
9.1 Online Problems and Competitive Analysis |
|
|
268 | (1) |
|
|
269 | (3) |
|
9.2.1 Searching for the Best Price |
|
|
269 | (1) |
|
9.2.2 Searching for a Price at Random |
|
|
270 | (2) |
|
|
272 | (1) |
|
|
272 | (1) |
|
9.4 Online Portfolio Selection |
|
|
273 | (8) |
|
9.4.1 The Universal Online Portfolio |
|
|
274 | (5) |
|
9.4.2 Efficient Universal Online Portfolio Strategies |
|
|
279 | (2) |
|
9.5 Notes, Computer Lab and Problems |
|
|
281 | (2) |
|
Appendix A The R Programming Environment |
|
|
283 | (6) |
|
A.1 R, What is it and How to Get it |
|
|
283 | (1) |
|
A.2 Installing R Packages and Obtaining Financial Data |
|
|
284 | (1) |
|
A.3 To Get You Started in R |
|
|
285 | (1) |
|
A.4 References for R and Packages Used in This Book |
|
|
286 | (3) |
References |
|
289 | (8) |
Index |
|
297 | |