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E-raamat: Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives

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  • Formaat: 344 pages
  • Ilmumisaeg: 30-Jun-2020
  • Kirjastus: Princeton University Press
  • Keel: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9780691215075
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Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological PerspectivesSuurem pilt
  • Formaat: 344 pages
  • Ilmumisaeg: 30-Jun-2020
  • Kirjastus: Princeton University Press
  • Keel: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9780691215075
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Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them. To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications.



The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis. Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly.

Arvustused

"The book sets out to examine the many roles that counterfactuals and counterfactual reasoning play in the study of world politics. It has many merits. The quality of the papers is high. It is well edited by Philip E. Tetlock and Aaron Belkin. It succeeds very well in building on earlier discussions of counterfactuals in social science, from Weber to Elster, and linking them with a wide range of concrete problems and issues in international relations."---Andrew Hurrell, The Times Literary Supplement

List of Contributors vii(2) Acknowledgments ix PART ONE: Counterfactual Inference: Form and Function 1(68) 1 Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives 1(38) Philip E. Tetlock Aaron Belkin 2 Causes and Counterfactuals in Social Science: Exploring an Analogy between Cellular Automata and Historical Processes 39(30) James D. Fearon PART TWO: Counterfactual Analysis of Particular Events 69(102) 3 Counterfactual Reasoning in Western Studies of Soviet Politics and Foreign Relations 69(26) George W. Breslauer 4 Confronting Hitler and Its Consequences 95(24) Yuen Foong Khong 5 Back to the Past: Counterfactuals and the Cuban Missile Crisis 119(30) Richard Ned Lebow Janice Gross Stein 6 Counterfactual Reasoning in Motivational Analysis: U.S. Policy toward Iran 149(22) Richard K. Herrmann Michael P. Fischerkeller PART THREE: Counterfactual Analysis of Classes of Events 171(40) 7 Counterfactuals about War and Its Absence 171(16) Bruce Russett 8 Using Counterfactuals in Historical Analysis: Theories of Revolution 187(24) Edgar Kiser Margaret Levi PART FOUR: Counterfactuals and Game Theory 211(36) 9 Counterfactuals and International Affairs: Some Insights from Game Theory 211(19) Bruce Bueno de Mesquita 10 Off-the-Path Behavior: A Game-Theoretic Approach to Counterfactuals and Its Implications for Political and Historical Analysis 230(17) Barry R. Weingast PART FIVE: Computer and Mental Simulations of Possible Worlds 247(44) 11 Rerunning History: Counterfactual Simulation in World Politics 247(21) Lars-Erik Cederman 12 Counterfactuals, Past and Future 268(23) Steven Weber PART SIX: Commentaries 291(26) 1 Conceptual Blending and Counterfactual Argument in the Social and Behavioral Sciences 291(5) Mark Turner 2 Psychological Biases in Counterfactual Thought Experiments 296(5) James M. Olson Neal J. Roese Ronald J. Deibert 3 Counterfactual Inferences as Instances of Statistical Inferences 301(8) Robyn M. Dawes 4 Counterfactuals, Causation, and Complexity 309(8) Robert Jervis References 317(20) Index 337
Philip E. Tetlock is Harold E. Burtt Professor of Psychology and Political Science at the Ohio State University. He is coeditor of Psychology and Social Policy and coauthor of Reasoning and Choice: Explorations in Political Psychology. Aaron Belkin is a Ph.D. candidate in political science at the University of California, Berkeley.
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