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E-raamat: Crisis, Stabilization, and Economic Reform: Therapy by Consensus

(late Vice President, Development Economics and Chief Economist, World Bank)
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This book provides an analysis of severe economic crises, involving high inflation and negative growth, and comprehensive reform programmes that have been tried. A detailed first hand account and explanation is given of the protracted crisis and the successful heterodox stabilization programme of the Israeli economy, which was also followed in Mexico and Eastern Europe. Professor Bruno writes with authority on the Israeli experience, having been Governor of the Central Bank of Israel from 1986-91, and thus is able to give a rare insight into the role of economists and the politics of policy formulation and implementation.
As well as providing a first hand account of the Israeli experience, Professor Bruno makes a systematic attempt to reveal the policy lessons of economic crises and reform across heterogeneous country groups. The analysis of the Israeli experience is combined with a comparative policy-oriented analysis of failures and successes in Latin American reforms (Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, and Mexico) as well as a preliminary evaluation of recent stabilizations and reform attempts in several East European economies.
The approach of this book is analytical but non-technical, with emphasis placed upon the interface of economic policy design with the institutional constraints and the political environment. Readily accessible to economists and students alike, parts of this book were first given as the Clarendon Lecture in Economics.

This book examines the phenomenon of the high inflation processes of the 1970s and 1980s as exemplified by Argentina, Brazil, and Israel. It explores the common characteristics of such processes and their possible cures--with some emphasis on the lessons of the Israeli experience in respect of the role of incomes policy and the political economy of stabilization. The discussion of the theoretical underpinnings of "shock" treatments provides a good example for the blending of a number of disciplines: lessons of economic history, open economy monetary and macro theory, game-theory applications to economic policy design (concepts such as dynamic inconsistency, government reputation, and credibility) and the rationalization of incomes policy.

Arvustused

`Professor Michael Bruno ... is one of those few academics who speak with real authority about the real world, and can draw on practical experience when giving policy advice ... Drawing heavily on his first-hand experience as governor of the Bank of Israel between 1986 and 1991, but not skimping on the economic analysis, Mr Bruno provides a powerful and comprehensive analysis of why some countries get into hyperinflationary difficulties.' Financial Times `a most useful general introduction to the problems examined in subsequent chapters ... This is a lucid and useful book, informed by shrewd political judgement and welcome awareness of the real importance of individual freedom. Its judicious and reasonable tone, with careful use of evidence from a wide range of settings, contrasts notably with the other volume reviewed here.' Economic Affairs

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By the Chief Economist of the World Bank
High inflation, growth crisis and reform - historical perspective and
brief overview; the gathering storm - Israel's structural crisis in the
1970s; shocks and accommodation - the dichotomy and mechanics of high
inflation; preparing for a comprehensive stabilization programme 1981-1985 -
doctrinal debates, politics and trial by error; the fight over stabilization
and the structural adjustment process, 1985-1991; Latin American comparisons
- failures, successes, heterogeneity; stabilization and reform in Eastern
Europe; synthesis, policy lessons and open questions.