Acknowledgments |
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xiii | |
CHAPTER 1. Introduction |
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1 | |
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2 | |
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1.2 The Birth of the Sahara Desert |
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3 | |
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5 | |
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6 | |
Part I THEORY OF CRITICAL TRANSITIONS |
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CHAPTER 2. Alternative Stable States |
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13 | |
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36 | |
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CHAPTER 3. Cycles and Chaos |
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42 | |
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3.3 Basin Boundary Collision |
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50 | |
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54 | |
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CHAPTER 4. Emergent Patterns in Complex Systems |
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55 | |
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56 | |
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4.2 Stability of Complex Interacting Networks |
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65 | |
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4.3 The Adaptive Cycle Theory |
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79 | |
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CHAPTER 5. Implications of Fluctuations, Heterogeneity, and Diversity |
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5.2 Spatial Heterogeneity and Modularity |
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CHAPTER 6. Conclusion: From Theoretical Concepts to Reality |
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6.1 Alternative Stable States |
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Part II CASE STUDIES |
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7.1 Transparency of Shallow Lakes |
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110 | |
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125 | |
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7.3 Other Alternative Stable States |
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131 | |
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138 | |
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139 | |
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8.1 Deep Time Climate Shifts |
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141 | |
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8.3 Abrupt Climate Change on Shorter Timescales |
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164 | |
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9.2 Early Animal Evolution and the Cambrian Explosion |
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168 | |
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9.3 The End-Permian Extinction |
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172 | |
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9.4 The Angiosperm Radiation |
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174 | |
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9.5 From Dinosaurs to Mammals |
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176 | |
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9.6 Global Warming and the Birth of Primates, Deer, and Horses |
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177 | |
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9.7 In Search of the Big Picture |
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178 | |
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184 | |
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186 | |
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10.1 Open Ocean Regime Shifts |
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187 | |
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201 | |
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213 | |
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CHAPTER 11. Terrestrial Ecosystems |
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216 | |
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11.1 Vegetation–Climate Shifts in Dry Regions |
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216 | |
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11.2 Small-Scale Transitions in Semiarid Vegetation |
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221 | |
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11.3 Boreal Forests and Tundra |
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226 | |
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11.4 The Rise and Fall of Raised Bogs |
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11.5 Species Extinction in Fragmented Landscapes |
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11.6 Epidemics as Critical Transitions |
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12.4 Inertia and Shifts in Group Attitudes |
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CHAPTER 13. Conclusion: Critical Transitions in a Complex World |
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259 | |
Part III DEALING WITH CRITICAL TRANSITIONS |
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CHAPTER 14. Now to Know if Alternative Basins of Attraction Exist |
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265 | |
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14.1 Hints from Field Data |
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14.2 Experimental Evidence |
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270 | |
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273 | |
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280 | |
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CHAPTER 15. Now to Know if a Threshold Is Near |
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15.1 The Theory: Signs of Upcoming Transitions |
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283 | |
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15.2 Precursors of Transitions in Real Systems |
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290 | |
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15.3 Reliablility of the Signals |
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293 | |
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294 | |
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CHAPTER 16. The Winding Road from Science to Policy |
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296 | |
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16.1 Exploiting Nature in the Smartest Way |
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297 | |
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16.2 Barriers to Good Solutions |
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303 | |
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309 | |
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CHAPTER 17. New Approaches to Managing Change |
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311 | |
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17.1 Promoting Good Transitions |
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312 | |
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17.2 Preventing Bad Transitions |
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320 | |
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326 | |
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18.1 The Delicate Issue of the Burden of Proof |
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326 | |
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18.2 Toward a Practical Science of Critical Transitions |
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327 | |
Appendix |
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329 | |
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332 | |
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332 | |
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A.4 Competition between Two Species |
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334 | |
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A.5 Multispecies Competition |
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338 | |
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339 | |
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341 | |
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A.8 Stabilization by Spatial Heterogeneity |
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341 | |
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A.9 Basin Boundary Collision |
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344 | |
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344 | |
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A.11 Self-Organized Patterns |
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345 | |
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A.12 Alternative Stable States in Shallow Lakes |
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347 | |
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348 | |
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A.14 Contingency in Behavior |
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350 | |
Glossary |
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353 | |
Notes |
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359 | |
Index |
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379 | |