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E-raamat: Critical Transitions in Nature and Society

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How do we explain the remarkably abrupt changes that sometimes occur in nature and society--and can we predict why and when they happen? This book offers a comprehensive introduction to critical transitions in complex systems--the radical changes that happen at tipping points when thresholds are passed. Marten Scheffer accessibly describes the dynamical systems theory behind critical transitions, covering catastrophe theory, bifurcations, chaos, and more. He gives examples of critical transitions in lakes, oceans, terrestrial ecosystems, climate, evolution, and human societies. And he demonstrates how to deal with these transitions, offering practical guidance on how to predict tipping points, how to prevent "bad" transitions, and how to promote critical transitions that work for us and not against us. Scheffer shows the time is ripe for understanding and managing critical transitions in the vast and complex systems in which we live. This book can also serve as a textbook and includes a detailed appendix with equations. * Provides an accessible introduction to dynamical systems theory * Covers critical transitions in lakes, oceans, terrestrial ecosystems, the climate, evolution, and human societies * Explains how to predict tipping points * Offers strategies for preventing "bad" transitions and triggering "good" ones * Features an appendix with equations

Arvustused

One of Choice's Outstanding Academic Titles for 2009 "This excellent, well-crafted volume outlines theoretical/applied evidence describing regime shifts that occur in natural and societal systems, and suggests how to address deleterious change to further human welfare. Scheffer expertly argues that system shifts are critical transitions arising when normal cyclical processes are stressed, thereby generating 'tipping points'... A highly important book of intellectual and applied significance."--M. Evans, Choice "Scheffer's book is a good read. It is fluently written and breathes authority, while still being highly consistent in its terminology."--Carsten F. Dormann, Basic and Applied Ecology "We recommend this book as the best integration of the multiple rubrics (resilience, regime change, panarchy, complexity, dynamical systems theory) found on the subject of critical transitions or abrupt change, and as an enjoyable as well as enlightening synthesis of a timely and important topic bearing on many of the crucial dilemmas of our time."--William A. Reiners, Ecology "The marvelous Scheffer's book is strongly recommended for all geoscientists because of three main reasons. First, it explains the outstanding importance of critical transitions in the abiotic, biotic, and social evolution and establishes a helpful framework for their further studies. Second, this book gives an exceptional opportunity to realize how broad, even philosophical treatment of very particular ideas can facilitate development of the tatters. Third, the author was very successful in demonstration of how do general laws work in the both nature and society. This unconventional book is very informative, well-written, and stimulating, and, consequently, nobody will lose her/his time reading it."--Dmitry A. Ruban, Zentralblatt fur Geologie und Palaontologie

Muu info

Short-listed for Choice Magazine Outstanding Reference/Academic Book Award 2009.This is an important book. Critical transitions and resilience are powerful explanatory tools in ecology today, and it is significant that Scheffer, the leading expert in the applications of critical transitions in ecology, has written a monograph in this area. Scheffer is an excellent writer, and a very good expositor of theoretical concepts in ecology. The ideas in this book should be part of every educated person's mental framework. -- Donald L. DeAngelis, University of Miami This is a timely book that will have considerable impact on multiple disciplines, including ecology, the social sciences, and economics. It focuses on the theory, examples, and implications of complex systems, particularly critical transitions resulting from positive feedbacks. Scheffer has always been a master at presenting complex issues in a simple way, and this book is no exception. This is a rare gem. -- Jon Norberg, Stockholm University
Acknowledgments xiii
CHAPTER
1. Introduction
1
1.1 Coral Reef Collapse
2
1.2 The Birth of the Sahara Desert
3
1.3 Shifts in Societies
5
1.4 Content of this Book
6
Part I THEORY OF CRITICAL TRANSITIONS
CHAPTER
2. Alternative Stable States
11
2.1 The Basics
13
2.2 Some Mechanisms
25
2.3 Synthesis
36
CHAPTER
3. Cycles and Chaos
37
3.1 The Limit Cycle
37
3.2 Complex Dynamics
42
3.3 Basin Boundary Collision
50
3.4 Synthesis
54
CHAPTER
4. Emergent Patterns in Complex Systems
55
4.1 Spatial Patterns
56
4.2 Stability of Complex Interacting Networks
65
4.3 The Adaptive Cycle Theory
75
4.4 Synthesis
79
CHAPTER
5. Implications of Fluctuations, Heterogeneity, and Diversity
81
5.1 Permanent Change
82
5.2 Spatial Heterogeneity and Modularity
85
5.3 Diversity of Players
90
5.4 Synthesis
95
CHAPTER
6. Conclusion: From Theoretical Concepts to Reality
96
6.1 Alternative Stable States
96
6.2 Basins of Attraction
98
6.3 Resilience
101
6.4 Adaptive Capacity
103
6.5 Critical Transitions
104
6.5 Synthesis
104
Part II CASE STUDIES
CHAPTER
7. Lakes
109
7.1 Transparency of Shallow Lakes
110
7.2 Dynamics
125
7.3 Other Alternative Stable States
131
7.4 Synthesis
138
CHAPTER
8. Climate
139
8.1 Deep Time Climate Shifts
141
8.2 Glaciation Cycles
149
8.3 Abrupt Climate Change on Shorter Timescales
157
8.4 Synthesis
164
CHAPTER
9. Evolution
166
9.1 Introduction
166
9.2 Early Animal Evolution and the Cambrian Explosion
168
9.3 The End-Permian Extinction
172
9.4 The Angiosperm Radiation
174
9.5 From Dinosaurs to Mammals
176
9.6 Global Warming and the Birth of Primates, Deer, and Horses
177
9.7 In Search of the Big Picture
178
9.8 Synthesis
184
CHAPTER
10. Oceans
186
10.1 Open Ocean Regime Shifts
187
10.2 Coastal Ecosystems
201
10.3 Synthesis
213
CHAPTER
11. Terrestrial Ecosystems
216
11.1 Vegetation–Climate Shifts in Dry Regions
216
11.2 Small-Scale Transitions in Semiarid Vegetation
221
11.3 Boreal Forests and Tundra
226
11.4 The Rise and Fall of Raised Bogs
230
11.5 Species Extinction in Fragmented Landscapes
234
11.6 Epidemics as Critical Transitions
237
11.7 Synthesis
239
CHAPTER
12. Humans
240
12.1 Shifting Cells
242
12.2 Shifting Minds
243
12.3 Behavioral Lock-In
244
12.4 Inertia and Shifts in Group Attitudes
246
12.5 Societies in Crisis
250
12.6 Synthesis
257
CHAPTER
13. Conclusion: Critical Transitions in a Complex World
259
Part III DEALING WITH CRITICAL TRANSITIONS
CHAPTER
14. Now to Know if Alternative Basins of Attraction Exist
265
14.1 Hints from Field Data
265
14.2 Experimental Evidence
270
14.3 Mechanistic Insight
273
14.4 Synthesis
280
CHAPTER
15. Now to Know if a Threshold Is Near
282
15.1 The Theory: Signs of Upcoming Transitions
283
15.2 Precursors of Transitions in Real Systems
290
15.3 Reliablility of the Signals
293
15.4 Synthesis
294
CHAPTER
16. The Winding Road from Science to Policy
296
16.1 Exploiting Nature in the Smartest Way
297
16.2 Barriers to Good Solutions
303
16.3 Synthesis
309
CHAPTER
17. New Approaches to Managing Change
311
17.1 Promoting Good Transitions
312
17.2 Preventing Bad Transitions
320
17.3 Synthesis
324
CHAPTER
18. Prospects
326
18.1 The Delicate Issue of the Burden of Proof
326
18.2 Toward a Practical Science of Critical Transitions
327
Appendix 329
A.1 Logistic Growth
329
A.2 Allee Effect
332
A.3 Overexploitation
332
A.4 Competition between Two Species
334
A.5 Multispecies Competition
338
A.6 Predator–Prey Cycles
339
A.7 The Hopf Bifurcation
341
A.8 Stabilization by Spatial Heterogeneity
341
A.9 Basin Boundary Collision
344
A.10 Periodic Forcing
344
A.11 Self-Organized Patterns
345
A.12 Alternative Stable States in Shallow Lakes
347
A.13 Floating Plants
348
A.14 Contingency in Behavior
350
Glossary 353
Notes 359
Index 379
Marten Scheffer is professor of environmental sciences at Wageningen University in the Netherlands. He is the author of "Ecology of Shallow Lakes".