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E-raamat: Crossing Nuclear Thresholds: Leveraging Sociocultural Insights into Nuclear Decisionmaking

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?This book applies the cutting-edge socio-cultural model Cultural Topography Analytic Framework (CTAF) pioneered in the authors’ earlier volume Strategic Culture and Weapons of Mass Destruction: Culturally Based Insights into Comparative National Security Policymaking (Palgrave Macmillan, 2009) with an eye towards isolating those vectors of nuclear decision-making on which the US might exert influence within a foreign state. The case studies included in this volume tackle a number of the nuclear challenges—termed “nuclear thresholds”—likely to be faced by the US and identify the most promising points of leverage available to American policymakers in ameliorating a wide range of over-the-horizon nuclear challenges. Because near and medium-term nuclear thresholds are likely to involve both allies and adversaries simultaneously, meaning that US response will require strategies tailored to both the perception of threat experienced by the actors in question, the value the actors place on their relationship with the US, and the domestic context driving decision-making. This volume offers a nuanced look at each actor’s identity, national norms, values, and perceptual lens in order to offer culturally-focused insights into behavior and intentions.

1 Introduction: Sociocultural Approaches to Understanding Nuclear Thresholds
1(28)
Kerry M. Kartchner
Crossing Nuclear Thresholds
4(3)
Six Nuclear Thresholds
7(1)
Sociocultural Analysis of Nuclear Proliferation
8(1)
Four Perspectives for Sociocultural Analysis
9(7)
Identity
10(2)
Values
12(1)
Norms
13(2)
Perceptual Lens
15(1)
Complementary Approaches in Recent Literature
16(3)
Overview of the Volume
19(10)
2 The Cultural Topography Analytic Framework
29(32)
Jeannie L. Johnson
Marilyn J. Maines
Growing Pains in the Strategic Culture Paradigm
30(3)
The Cultural Topography Analytic Framework
33(24)
Step 1 Identify an Issue of Strategic Interest
35(2)
Step 2 Select Key Actors (Individuals or Groups) for Focused Study
37(3)
Step 3 Research Key Actors from Four Perspectives---Identity, Norms, Values, and Perceptual Lens
40(2)
Research Strategies
42(3)
Step 4 Assess Impact of Cultural Factors on Key Actors
45(1)
Assessment of Cultural Factors in Case Studies
46(3)
Step 5 Develop a Tailored Set of Policy Levers to Impact Nuclear Decisionmaking
49(1)
What Is a Lever?
50(1)
Using Less Direct Approaches to Influence Nuclear Decisions
51(6)
Conclusion
57(4)
3 Iran's Strategic Culture: Implications for Nuclear Policy
61(48)
Niina Gerami
Origins and Evolution of Iran's Nuclear Program
64(4)
Iran's Nuclear Decisionmaking
68(5)
Traditional Keepers of Iran's Strategic Culture
70(2)
Non-traditional Keepers of Iran's Strategic Culture
72(1)
Characteristics of Iran's Strategic Culture
73(7)
Dualism Permeates Iranian Identity
74(1)
Strategic Patience Is Rewarded
75(1)
Iran Has a Historical "Right" to Hegemony
76(2)
Resistance Is Key to Action and Power
78(1)
World Order Is Unjust, Victimizes the Weak
79(1)
Impact of Strategic Culture on Iran's Nuclear Policy
80(12)
Deterrence Is the Best Defense
81(3)
Ambiguity Complicates Decisionmaking Process
84(1)
Islam and Shia Martyrdom Bolster Regime Legitimacy
84(2)
National Interests Supersede Revolutionary Ideals
86(2)
Proportionate Responses Preferable to Escalation
88(2)
Combination of Soft and Hard Power Most Effective for Resisting Enemies
90(1)
Rationalism and Heroic Flexibility Key for Survival
91(1)
Policy Implications and Recommendations
92(5)
Conclusion
97(12)
4 Prospects for Proliferation in Saudi Arabia
109(32)
J. E. Peterson
Background on Saudi Nuclear Interest
110(5)
Saudi Perceptions of Threat and of the United States as Partner
115(5)
Threats Through the Saudi Perceptual Lens
115(3)
Perceptions of the United States
118(2)
Key Players and Decisionmaking Worms
120(6)
Decisionmakers
120(2)
Decision Influencers
122(1)
Regime Opponents
123(1)
Decisionmaking Norms
124(2)
Values and the Paradoxes in Saudi Society
126(3)
Factors in Nuclear Decisionmaking
129(3)
Drivers
129(2)
Triggers
131(1)
US Policy Options
132(2)
Dissuasion
132(1)
Assurance
133(1)
Conclusions
134(7)
5 Israeli Strategic Culture and the Iran "Preemption Scare" of 2009--2013
141(32)
Gregory F. Giles
A Snapshot of Israelis Historical Engagement with Nuclear Issues
141(5)
Preserving Israel's Nuclear Monopoly: The Begin Doctrine
141(2)
The Begin Doctrine in Action: The September 2007 Destruction of Syria's Al-Kibar Reactor
143(3)
Analysis and Key Insights Provided by the Cultural Topography Analytical Framework
146(9)
Netanyahu at the Helm: "To Attack or Not to Attack"
146(3)
So Why Didn't Netanyahu Pull the Trigger?
149(2)
2009
151(1)
2010
151(1)
2011
152(1)
2012
153(2)
2013
155(1)
Alternate Explanations of Israel's Failure to Strike Iran
155(2)
Strategic Culture Insights
157(5)
How Much Influence Did the United States Have on Israeli Decisionmaking?
159(2)
How Did Iran Perceive and Influence the Situation?
161(1)
Policy Implications and Recommendations
162(11)
The Value of Strategic Culture Analysis
162(2)
Israel's Willingness to Use Force Against Iran's Nuclear Program in the Future: Strategic Culture Guideposts
164(9)
6 Cultural Underpinnings of Current Russian Nuclear and Security Strategy
173(26)
Dmitry (Dima) Adamsky
Russian Identity and Current Geopolitical Threat Perceptions
174(2)
The Nuclear Community and Its Decisionmaking Architecture
176(3)
The Evolution of Russian Nuclear Strategy
179(4)
"Regional Nuclear Deterrence" (1991--2010)
180(1)
"New Generation Warfare" (2010--Present)
181(2)
Cultural Underpinnings of Russian Strategic Behavior
183(11)
Moral-Psychological vs. Material Factors in the Culture of War
183(2)
Holistic Approach to Strategy
185(2)
Theory-Driven Military Innovations
187(4)
Culture of Management and Military Innovations
191(2)
Siege Mentality
193(1)
Conclusion
194(5)
7 Ukraine's Nuclear Culture: Past, Present, Future
199(28)
Ekaterina Svyatets
Methodology and Sources
200(2)
Factors Strengthening Nuclear Nonproliferation in Ukraine
202(9)
Ukraine's Lack of Control of the Soviet Nuclear Arsenal
202(1)
Ukraine's Identity as a Leader in the Global Nonproliferation Movement
203(5)
Nuclear Narratives in Popular Culture: The Fear of Another Nuclear Disaster
208(3)
Non -governmental Organizations as Drivers of Ecological Awareness and Nonproliferation Norms
211(1)
Nuclear "Enabling" Factors Potentially Weakening Ukraine's Non-nuclear Status
211(7)
Nuclear Weapon Technology Latency
212(2)
The Perceptual Lens of the Conflict with Russia
214(3)
Nuclear Terrorism and Cyber Terrorism Threats
217(1)
Key Political Actors and Influencers of Ukrainian Nuclear Culture
218(3)
Conclusions and Policy Levers
221(6)
8 North Korea's Strategic Culture and Its Evolving Nuclear Strategy
227(24)
Shane Smith
The Supreme Leader: Ultimate Decisionmaker and Embodiment of North Korean National Identity
228(3)
North Korean Identity and Nuclear Weapons
231(4)
North Korean Values and Nuclear Weapons
235(3)
North Korean Norms and Nuclear Weapons
238(2)
North Korean Perceptual Lens and Nuclear Weapons
240(4)
Policy Implications and Recommendations
244(7)
9 Conclusion: Using Strategic Culture to Explain Real-World Decisionmaking
251(16)
Jeffrey A. Larsen
Introduction
251(1)
Changes in the Past Decade
252(2)
Strategic Culture as a Theory and as a Methodology
254(3)
Strategic Culture Does Matter
257(2)
Practical Matters: A Checklist of Policy Responses to Nuclear Thresholds
259(6)
Nuclear Decision Thresholds
259(6)
Conclusion
265(2)
Index 267
Jeannie L. Johnson is Assistant Professor in the Political Science Department at Utah State University, USA.

Kerry M. Kartchner is Visiting Lecturer at the Bush School of Government and Public Policy at Texas A&M University, USA.





Marilyn Maines is Faculty Member at the Center for Advanced Study of Language at the University of Maryland in College Park, USA.