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Part I Introduction, Degradation Data Acquisition and Evaluation |
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1 Advances in Data-Driven RUL Prognosis Techniques |
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3 | (20) |
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3 | (2) |
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1.2 Methods Considering Unit-to-Unit Variability |
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5 | (3) |
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1.2.1 Random Coefficients Regression Models |
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6 | (1) |
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1.2.2 Stochastic Process Models with Random Coefficients |
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6 | (2) |
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1.3 Methods Considering Impact of Heterogeneity in Working Environment |
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8 | (5) |
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1.3.1 Methods Based on Stochastic Filtering |
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8 | (1) |
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1.3.2 Multi-stage Degradation Models |
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9 | (1) |
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1.3.3 Covariate Hazards Model |
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10 | (1) |
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1.3.4 Degradation Models Involving Random Shocks |
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11 | (2) |
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1.4 Methods Considering the Impact of Tasks and Workloads |
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13 | (2) |
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1.4.1 Degradation Modeling for Systems with Dynamic Workloads |
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13 | (1) |
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1.4.2 Degradation Modeling for System with Maintenances |
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14 | (1) |
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1.5 Future Research Directions |
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15 | (8) |
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17 | (6) |
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2 Planning Repeated Degradation Testing for Degrading Products |
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23 | (16) |
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23 | (2) |
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2.2 Degradation Modeling with Three-Source Variability |
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25 | (2) |
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2.3 Parameter Estimation and Information Matrix |
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27 | (1) |
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2.4 Estimating the Degradation Distribution and Lifetime Distribution |
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28 | (4) |
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2.4.1 The Quantiles of Degradation Distribution and Its Variance |
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28 | (1) |
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2.4.2 The Lifetime Distribution |
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29 | (3) |
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2.5 Degradation Test Planning |
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32 | (1) |
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2.6 An Illustrative Example |
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33 | (6) |
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36 | (3) |
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3 Specifying Measurement Errors for Required Lifetime Estimation Performance |
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39 | (34) |
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39 | (3) |
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3.2 Properties of the WPDM |
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42 | (1) |
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3.3 Properties of the WPDM with the ME |
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43 | (2) |
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3.4 Permissible ME Parameters for Lifetime Estimation |
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45 | (5) |
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3.4.1 Performance Measures to Quantify the Difference in Lifetime Estimation with Versus Without the ME |
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45 | (1) |
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3.4.2 Permissible ME Parameters Using the Relative Increase Ratio of the CV |
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46 | (3) |
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3.4.3 Permissible ME Parameters Using the Relative Increase Ratio of the Variance |
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49 | (1) |
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3.5 Effect of Lifetime Estimation with or Without ME on an Age-Based Replacement Decision |
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50 | (2) |
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52 | (21) |
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3.6.1 A Numerical Illustration |
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52 | (3) |
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55 | (7) |
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62 | (5) |
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67 | (6) |
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Part II Prognostic Techniques for Linear Degrading Systems |
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4 An Adaptive Remaining Useful Life Estimation Approach with a Recursive Filter |
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73 | (30) |
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73 | (3) |
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4.2 Wiener-Process-Based Degradation Modeling and RUL Estimation |
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76 | (8) |
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4.2.1 An Outline of Wiener-Process-Based Degradation Model for Lifetime Analysis |
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76 | (3) |
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4.2.2 Wiener-Process-Based Degradation Modeling |
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79 | (2) |
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4.2.3 Real-Time Updating of the RUL Distribution |
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81 | (3) |
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84 | (8) |
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84 | (2) |
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4.3.2 The Implementation of EM Algorithm for the Proposed Model |
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86 | (4) |
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4.3.3 Convergence Analysis of Adaptive Model Parameter Estimation Algorithm |
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90 | (2) |
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4.4 A Practical Case Study |
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92 | (11) |
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4.4.1 Problem Description |
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92 | (2) |
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4.4.2 The Implementation of Our Model for RUL Estimation of the INS |
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94 | (2) |
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4.4.3 Comparative Studies |
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96 | (4) |
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100 | (3) |
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5 An Exact and Closed-Form Solution to Degradation Path-Dependent RUL Estimation |
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103 | (40) |
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103 | (4) |
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5.2 A Degradation Path-Dependent Approach for Adaptive RUL Estimation |
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107 | (3) |
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5.2.1 A General Description of Stochastic Process Based Degradation Models |
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107 | (1) |
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5.2.2 A Degradation Path-Dependent Approach for Adaptive RUL Estimation via Real-Time CM Data |
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108 | (2) |
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110 | (13) |
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123 | (7) |
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130 | (13) |
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131 | (5) |
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5.5.2 A Practical Case Study of the Developed Approach in Condition-Based Replacement |
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136 | (5) |
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141 | (2) |
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6 Estimating RUL with Three-Source Variability in Degradation Modeling |
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143 | (40) |
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143 | (4) |
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143 | (2) |
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145 | (1) |
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6.1.3 Main Works of This Chapter |
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146 | (1) |
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6.2 Description of Degradation Modeling with Three-Source Variability for RUL Estimation |
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147 | (2) |
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6.3 RUL Estimation with Three-Source Variability |
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149 | (18) |
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6.3.1 RUL Estimation with Temporal Variability and Unit-to-Unit Variability |
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149 | (5) |
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6.3.2 RUL Estimation with Temporal Variability and Uncertain Measurements |
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154 | (4) |
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6.3.3 RUL Estimation with Three-Source Variability |
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158 | (9) |
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167 | (3) |
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170 | (13) |
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6.5.1 Problem Description |
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171 | (3) |
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6.5.2 Comparisons for Model Fitting |
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174 | (1) |
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6.5.3 Comparisons for the Estimated RUL |
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175 | (3) |
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178 | (5) |
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Part III Prognostic Techniques for Nonlinear Degrading Systems |
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7 RUL Estimation Based on a Nonlinear Diffusion Degradation Process |
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183 | (34) |
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183 | (3) |
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186 | (1) |
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7.3 Motivating Examples and RUL Modeling Principle |
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187 | (4) |
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7.4 Lifetime Distribution and Parameter Estimation of the Proposed Degradation Model |
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191 | (11) |
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7.4.1 Derivation of the Lifetime Distribution |
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191 | (7) |
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7.4.2 Lifetime Distribution Under Random Effects |
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198 | (2) |
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7.4.3 The Distribution of the RUL Estimation |
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200 | (2) |
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7.5 Parameters Estimation |
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202 | (3) |
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7.6 Examples of the Applications of the Models |
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205 | (12) |
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206 | (2) |
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7.6.2 Drift Degradation Data of INS |
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208 | (3) |
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7.6.3 Fatigue Crack Data of 2017-T4 |
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211 | (2) |
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213 | (4) |
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8 Prognostics for Age- and State-Dependent Nonlinear Degrading Systems |
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217 | (30) |
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217 | (2) |
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219 | (2) |
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8.3 RUL Estimation by Degradation Modeling |
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221 | (5) |
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8.4 Model Parameter Estimation Framework |
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226 | (2) |
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8.5 An Illustrative Example |
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228 | (4) |
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8.5.1 Degradation Model and Lifetime Estimation |
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228 | (2) |
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8.5.2 Parameters Estimation |
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230 | (1) |
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8.5.3 Verifying the Accuracy of the Proposed Method |
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231 | (1) |
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232 | (15) |
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243 | (4) |
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9 Adaptive Prognostic Approach via Nonlinear Degradation Modeling |
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247 | (26) |
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247 | (3) |
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9.2 Nonlinear Model Description and RUL Estimation |
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250 | (6) |
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9.2.1 Modeling Description |
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250 | (1) |
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9.2.2 Derivation of the RUL Distribution |
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251 | (2) |
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9.2.3 Adaptive RUL Estimation |
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253 | (3) |
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9.3 Adaptive Parameter Estimation |
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256 | (4) |
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9.4 An Illustrative Example |
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260 | (1) |
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9.5 Numerical Example and Case Study |
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261 | (12) |
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261 | (4) |
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9.5.2 Lithium-Ion Battery Life Prognosis |
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265 | (3) |
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268 | (5) |
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10 Prognostics for Hidden and Age-Dependent Nonlinear Degrading Systems |
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273 | (40) |
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273 | (4) |
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273 | (1) |
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274 | (2) |
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10.1.3 Main Works of This Chapter |
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276 | (1) |
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10.2 Problem Formulation and RUL Estimation |
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277 | (10) |
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10.2.1 Problem Formulation |
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277 | (2) |
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279 | (5) |
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10.2.3 Comparative Discussions |
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284 | (3) |
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10.3 Parameter Estimation |
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287 | (4) |
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10.4 Illustrative Examples |
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291 | (6) |
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10.4.1 The Derivation of the RUL for Three Cases |
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291 | (2) |
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10.4.2 The Derivation of Parameter Estimation Algorithm for Three Cases |
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293 | (4) |
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297 | (8) |
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305 | (8) |
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10.6.1 The Data and State-Space-Based Degradation Model |
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305 | (2) |
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10.6.2 Results and Discussions |
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307 | (2) |
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309 | (4) |
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11 Prognostics for Nonlinear Degrading Systems with Three-Source Variability |
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313 | (24) |
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313 | (2) |
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11.2 Nonlinear Prognostic Model Description |
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315 | (2) |
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11.3 RUL Estimate Method with Three-Source Variability |
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317 | (11) |
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11.3.1 RUL Estimate Only with the Temporal Variability |
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317 | (1) |
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11.3.2 RUL Estimate with the Temporal Variability and the Unit-to-Unit Variability |
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318 | (3) |
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11.3.3 RUL Estimate with the Temporal Variability and the Measurement Variability |
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321 | (3) |
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11.3.4 RUL Estimate with Three-Source Variability |
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324 | (4) |
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11.3.5 Parameter Estimation |
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328 | (1) |
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11.4 Experimental Studies |
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328 | (9) |
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329 | (3) |
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332 | (3) |
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335 | (2) |
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12 RSL Prediction Approach for Systems with Operation State Switches |
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337 | (26) |
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337 | (2) |
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339 | (1) |
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12.3 Problem Description for RSL Estimation |
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340 | (2) |
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12.4 Model Formulation for Transitions Between the Operating State and Storage State |
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342 | (4) |
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12.4.1 Randomly Varying System Operation Process |
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342 | (2) |
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12.4.2 Bayesian Estimation for Parameters in the System's Operation Process |
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344 | (2) |
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12.5 Model Formulation of the System Degradation Process to Predict the RSL |
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346 | (7) |
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12.5.1 Predicting the RSL Conditional on the Model Parameters and Fixed System Operation Process |
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346 | (3) |
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12.5.2 Bayesian Estimation for Parameters in the Degradation Process |
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349 | (1) |
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12.5.3 RSL Prediction Considering the Future Transitions and Updated Parameters |
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350 | (3) |
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353 | (10) |
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12.6.1 Background and Data Description |
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353 | (4) |
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12.6.2 Results and Discussions |
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357 | (2) |
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359 | (4) |
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Part IV Applications of Prognostic Information |
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13 Reliability Estimation Approach for PMS |
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363 | (30) |
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363 | (3) |
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13.2 Assumptions and Problem Description |
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366 | (2) |
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13.2.1 Problem Description |
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366 | (1) |
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367 | (1) |
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13.3 Mission Process to Estimate the Mission Time |
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368 | (6) |
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13.4 System Degradation Process to Estimate the Lifetime |
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374 | (8) |
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374 | (2) |
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13.4.2 Bayesian Updating of Model Parameters |
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376 | (1) |
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13.4.3 Estimating the RUL of PMS |
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377 | (5) |
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13.5 Reliability Estimation for PMS |
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382 | (1) |
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13.6 Experimental Studies |
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383 | (10) |
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13.6.1 Numerical Simulations |
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383 | (5) |
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388 | (2) |
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390 | (3) |
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14 A Real-Time Variable Cost-Based Maintenance Model |
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393 | (12) |
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393 | (2) |
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14.2 Degradation Modeling for Prognostics |
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395 | (4) |
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14.2.1 Degradation Modeling |
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395 | (3) |
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398 | (1) |
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14.3 Replacement Decision Modeling |
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399 | (2) |
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401 | (4) |
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403 | (2) |
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15 An Adaptive Spare Parts Demand Forecasting Method Based on Degradation Modeling |
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405 | (14) |
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405 | (2) |
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15.2 Degradation Modeling Description |
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407 | (1) |
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15.3 Adaptive Lifetime Estimation |
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408 | (2) |
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15.4 Adaptively Forecasting Spare Parts Demand |
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410 | (2) |
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15.5 Adaptive Parameter Estimation |
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412 | (1) |
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413 | (6) |
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416 | (3) |
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16 Variable Cost-Based Maintenance and Inventory Model |
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419 | (11) |
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419 | (1) |
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16.2 Degradation Modeling for Prognostics |
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420 | (2) |
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16.2.1 Degradation Modeling |
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421 | (1) |
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421 | (1) |
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16.3 Parameter Estimation |
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422 | (2) |
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16.4 Replacement and Inventory Decision Modeling |
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424 | (3) |
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427 | (3) |
References |
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