E-raamat: Decision Analysis for Creating the Future

Reading Decision Analysis for Creating the Future is like opening a magic box and discovering the art and science of decision-making. In his simple yet rigorous language, Larry Phillips offers us a fascinating distillation of his vast and diverse experience of applying decision analysis in decision conferencing with small groups. This is not just another book on decision-making. Rather, it is the missing masterpiece on how to construct and exploit analytical models interactively to help decision-makers visualise and discuss alternative paths for a better future in the face of multiple sources of complexity and uncertainty. Carlos A. Bana e Costa, University of Lisbon and LSE This book is well-suited for applied analytics programs, where students move quickly from theory to practice. Its emphasis on foundational concepts equips readers to solve not just one problem, but any problem. Additionally, the discussion of decision context is especially valuable, highlighting that the real challenge is often aligning stakeholders around a path forward not just making the decision itself. David Kreutter, Senior Lecturer in Applied Analytics, Columbia University The concepts and stories used to bring the theory to life are fascinating and insightful, and the signposting throughout the book makes it a very enjoyable and flowing read. Clare Bridger, Incendium Consulting This book is a must-read for anyone who wants to make better decisions with analysis. It uniquely combines the foundations of decision analysis with a deep understanding of the social processes that make it work in practice. Detlof von Winterfeldt, Professor of Industrial & Systems Engineering and Policy, Planning, and Development, University of Southern California Decision Analysis for Creating the Future describes all the practical concepts and ideas, and useful procedures to implement them, that are the basis for a thorough and practical analysis of any decision worthy of thought. Ralph Keeney, President of US Marketing and Decisions Group,Inc. and Professor Emeritus at Duke University and the University of Southern California An excellent guide for current and future generations. Bob Kitchen, Founder and former Managing Director of Catalyze Ltd.