Preface |
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ix | |
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1 Impacts, Adaptation, Vulnerability, and Decision-Making |
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1 | (18) |
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1.1 Assessing Climate-Change Impacts on Human Systems |
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1 | (6) |
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1.1.1 A Changing Climate and the Need for Assessment |
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1 | (2) |
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1.1.2 A Brief History of Major Impact Assessments |
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3 | (3) |
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1.1.3 Generating Climate Information for Impact Assessments |
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6 | (1) |
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1.2 Adaptation Strategies for Coping with a Changing Climate |
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7 | (8) |
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1.2.1 Adapting to Changes in Average Climate |
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9 | (2) |
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1.2.2 Adapting to Changes in Weather Extremes |
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11 | (2) |
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1.2.3 Adapting to Rising Seas |
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13 | (2) |
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1.3 Decision Making for Adaptation and Climate Information Needs |
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15 | (4) |
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19 | (21) |
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2.1 The Need for Climate Models |
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19 | (1) |
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2.2 The Evolution of Climate Modeling |
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20 | (4) |
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2.3 Physical Processes in Global Climate Models |
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24 | (4) |
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2.4 Advances in Climate Modeling and Model Resolution |
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28 | (3) |
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2.5 Evaluating Climate Models Using Past Climate |
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31 | (3) |
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2.6 Archives of GCM Simulations |
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34 | (6) |
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3 Assessing Climate-Change Impacts at the Regional Scale |
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40 | (24) |
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3.1 Climate Projections for Regional Assessments |
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40 | (5) |
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3.2 Climate Projections by Region |
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45 | (16) |
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3.2.1 Projected Changes for North America |
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45 | (2) |
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3.2.2 Projected Changes for Central and South America |
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47 | (3) |
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3.2.3 Projected Changes for Europe |
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50 | (1) |
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3.2.4 Projected Changes for East Asia |
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51 | (3) |
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3.2.5 Projected Changes for South Asia |
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54 | (2) |
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3.2.6 Projected Changes for Africa |
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56 | (3) |
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3.2.7 Projected Changes for Australia |
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59 | (2) |
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3.3 Regional Projections of Sea Level Change and Marine Temperature |
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61 | (3) |
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64 | (18) |
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4.1 Regional vs. Global Climate Models |
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64 | (3) |
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4.2 The Physics of Regional Climate Models |
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67 | (3) |
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4.3 Outputs from Dynamical Downscaling Models |
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70 | (3) |
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4.4 Workflow for Performing Dynamically Downscaled Simulations |
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73 | (3) |
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4.5 Evaluation of Dynamical Downscaled Model Simulations |
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76 | (3) |
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4.6 Availability and Use of Climate Projections from RCMs |
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79 | (3) |
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5 Empirical-Statistical Downscaling |
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82 | (20) |
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5.1 The Origin of Empirical-Statistical Bias Correction and Downscaling |
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82 | (1) |
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5.2 Statistical Methods and Models for Bias Correction and Spatial Disaggregation in ESDMs |
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83 | (9) |
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5.3 Statistical Methods and Models for Temporal Disaggregation in ESDMs |
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92 | (4) |
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5.4 Evaluation of Output from ESDMs |
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96 | (2) |
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5.5 Comparison between ESDMs |
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98 | (2) |
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5.6 Availability and Use of Climate Projections from ESDMs |
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100 | (2) |
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6 Added Value of Downscaling |
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102 | (19) |
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6.1 The Concept of Added Value in Downscaling |
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102 | (2) |
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6.2 Added Value from the Perspective of Scientists and Decision Makers |
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104 | (1) |
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6.3 Added Value in the Context of Dynamical Downscaling |
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105 | (4) |
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6.4 Added Value in the Context of ESDM |
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109 | (5) |
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6.5 Comparing Statistical and Dynamical Downscaling |
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114 | (3) |
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6.6 Research Needs to Further Determine Appropriate Use of Different Methods |
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117 | (4) |
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7 Uncertainty in Future Projections, and Approaches for Representing Uncertainty |
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121 | (18) |
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7.1 Identifying the Need for Quantitative Future Projections |
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121 | (2) |
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7.2 Uncertainty due to Natural Variability |
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123 | (2) |
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7.3 Scientific Uncertainty |
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125 | (5) |
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7.3.1 Climate Sensitivity |
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125 | (2) |
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7.3.2 Structural Uncertainty |
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127 | (1) |
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7.3.3 Parametric Uncertainty |
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128 | (1) |
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7.3.4 Accounting for Scientific Uncertainty |
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128 | (2) |
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7.4 Uncertainty due to Human Choices |
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130 | (5) |
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7.4.1 Scenarios Used for GCM Simulations |
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130 | (2) |
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7.4.2 Addressing Scenario Uncertainty in Impact Assessments |
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132 | (3) |
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7.5 The Relative Importance of Different Sources of Uncertainty |
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135 | (1) |
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7.6 The Importance of Quantifying Uncertainty |
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136 | (3) |
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8 Guidance and Recommendations for Use of (Downscaled) Climate Information |
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139 | (18) |
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139 | (3) |
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8.2 Global Climate Model Selection |
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142 | (1) |
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142 | (1) |
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143 | (1) |
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8.5 Selecting Downscaling Approaches |
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143 | (2) |
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8.6 Use of the Different Downscaling Methods |
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145 | (7) |
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8.6.1 Comparing Statistical and Dynamical Approaches to Generating High-Resolution Climate Projections |
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146 | (6) |
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8.7 Recommendations Based on Particular Variables, Questions Asked, and Physical Characteristics of the Region |
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152 | (3) |
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152 | (1) |
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8.7.2 Climate Services and Web Portals |
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153 | (2) |
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155 | (2) |
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9 The Future of Regional Downscaling |
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157 | (9) |
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157 | (1) |
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9.2 Future Directions for Global Modeling |
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158 | (3) |
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9.3 Future Directions for Regional Modeling |
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161 | (1) |
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9.4 Future Directions for Empirical-Statistical Downscaling |
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162 | (2) |
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9.5 Will Downscaling Become Obsolete? |
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164 | (1) |
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9.6 Coupling with GIS and Other Tools |
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164 | (2) |
References |
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166 | (22) |
Index |
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188 | |