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E-raamat: Econometrics of Sequential Trade Models: Theory and Applications Using High Frequency Data

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The present study has been accepted as a doctoral thesis by the Depart­ ment of Economics of the Johann Wolfgang Goethe-University in Frankfurt am Main. It grew out from my five year long participation in two research projects, "Econometric analysis of transaction intensity and volatility on fi­ nancial markets", and "Microstructure on financial markets", that were both conducted by the chair of Statistics and Econometrics (Empirical Economic Research) at the Department of Economics and Business Administration, Jo­ hann Wolfgang Goethe-University in Frankfurt am Main and financed by the state of Hessen. During this time I have benefitted from many people. First and foremost I would like to thank my thesis supervisor, Prof. Dr. Reinhard Hujer, for initiating and supporting my studies with great encouragement. I am also very grateful to Prof. Dr. Christian Schlag for acting as the second thesis supervisor. Furthermore, I wish to thank Prof. Dr. Joachim Grammig who introduced me to the topics covered in this study in the first place and helped me to sharpen my views on econometrics and financial market microstructure theory through many discussions and also through his willingness to work with me on several related studies.

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Contents ix
Introduction
1(4)
Trading Mechanisms on Financial Markets
5(10)
Typology of Security Markets
5(4)
Market Participants and Institutional Setup on the NYSE
9(6)
Market Participants
9(1)
Handling of Orders and Execution
10(3)
Order Routing and Information Systems
13(2)
Sequential Trade Models
15(46)
Market Microstructure Theory
15(2)
Microstructure Models of the Black Box under Asymmetric Information
17(7)
Sequential Trade Models
17(3)
Walrasian Batch Models
20(2)
Critical Assessment
22(2)
The Basic Sequential Trade Model
24(3)
Extensions
27(16)
Trade Size Effects, No-Trading Events, and History Dependence
27(6)
Discriminating Between Market and Limit Orders
33(4)
Models for Dually Listed Assets
37(6)
Estimation of Structural Models
43(7)
Estimation of the Basic Model Using Information on Buys and Sells
43(1)
Estimation of the Basic Model Using Information on Trades
44(3)
Estimation of Related Models
47(3)
Results of Previous Studies
50(11)
Econometric Analysis of Sequential Trade Models
61(32)
The EKOP Model and Finite Mixture Models
61(21)
Motivation
61(3)
An Alternative Version of the EKOP Model
64(3)
A Multivariate Finite Mixture Poisson Regression Model
67(4)
A Mixture Regression Model Based on the Negative Binomial Distribution
71(2)
Accounting for Intraday Seasonality
73(1)
Autoregressive Specification of the Conditional Mean Function
74(2)
A Markov Switching Approach
76(6)
Model Evaluation and Specification Testing
82(9)
Specification Tests in Static Mixture and Markov Switching Models
82(2)
Determining the Number of Regimes
84(2)
A Conditional Moment Test for Goodness of Fit
86(1)
Testing Parameter Restrictions
87(2)
Testing for Autocorrelation
89(2)
Mixture and Regime Switching Models in Econometrics
91(2)
Empirical Results
93(52)
The TAQ Database
93(3)
The Trade Direction
96(10)
Algorithms for the Determination of the Trade Direction
96(2)
Empirical Evidence on the Accuracy of Classification
98(5)
Classification of Trades
103(3)
Descriptive Statistics
106(6)
Estimation Results
112(33)
Model Selection
112(8)
Parameter Estimates
120(9)
Specification Tests
129(6)
Classification of Regimes
135(7)
Testing Parameter Restrictions
142(3)
Conclusions
145(2)
Appendix
147(30)
A.1 The Poisson Process
149(2)
A.2 Maximum Likelihood Estimation of a Multivariate Poisson Mixture Model
151(2)
A.3 The EM-Algorithm
153(3)
A.4 The Poisson Regression Model
156(1)
A.5 The Negative Binomial Regression Model
157(3)
A.6 Moments of Mixture Distributions
160(7)
A.7 Unobserved Individual Variation of Trade Arrival Rates
167(2)
A.8 Markov Chains
169(3)
A.9 The Smoothing Algorithm
172(1)
A.10 Estimation of Transition Probabilities in the Markov Switching Model
173(1)
A.11 Moments of the Dependent Variable in a Markov Switching Model
174(3)
References 177(12)
List of Figures 189(2)
List of Tables 191