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E-raamat: Epistemology of Indicative Conditionals: Formal and Empirical Approaches

(Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Paris)
  • Formaat: PDF+DRM
  • Ilmumisaeg: 12-Nov-2015
  • Kirjastus: Cambridge University Press
  • Keel: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9781316426876
  • Formaat - PDF+DRM
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  • Formaat: PDF+DRM
  • Ilmumisaeg: 12-Nov-2015
  • Kirjastus: Cambridge University Press
  • Keel: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9781316426876

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"The importance of the role that conditionals play in both everyday and scientific discourse and reasoning is hard to overestimate. Perhaps it is no surprise then that for quite some time, conditionals have been a central area of investigation not only in philosophy, but also in linguistics and psychology, and to some extent in computer science. What is surprising, however, is that despite the considerable expenditure of time and effort of many researchers from those fields, there is still little that one can say about conditionals that is not highly controversial"--

"Conditionals are sentences of the form 'If A, then B', and they play a central role in scientific, logical, and everyday reasoning. They have been in the philosophical limelight for centuries, and more recently, they have been receiving attention from psychologists, linguists, and computer scientists. In spite of this, many key questions concerning conditionals remain unanswered. While most of the work on conditionals has addressed semantical questions - questions about the truth conditions of conditionals - this book focuses on the main epistemological questions that conditionals give rise to, such as: what are the probabilities of conditionals? When is a conditional acceptable or assertable? What do we learn when we receive new conditional information? In answering these questions, this book combines the formal tools of logic and probability theory with the experimental approach of cognitive psychology. It will be of interest to students and researchers in logic, epistemology, and psychology of reasoning"--

Conditionals are sentences of the form 'If A, then B', and they play a central role in scientific, logical, and everyday reasoning. They have been in the philosophical limelight for centuries, and more recently, they have been receiving attention from psychologists, linguists, and computer scientists. In spite of this, many key questions concerning conditionals remain unanswered. While most of the work on conditionals has addressed semantical questions – questions about the truth conditions of conditionals – this book focuses on the main epistemological questions that conditionals give rise to, such as: what are the probabilities of conditionals? When is a conditional acceptable or assertable? What do we learn when we receive new conditional information? In answering these questions, this book combines the formal tools of logic and probability theory with the experimental approach of cognitive psychology. It will be of interest to students and researchers in logic, epistemology, and psychology of reasoning.

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Addresses central questions concerning conditionals by combining the methods of formal epistemology with those of cognitive psychology.
List of Figures and Tables
vii
Preface and Acknowledgments ix
1 Agenda
1(28)
1.1 Key questions
4(5)
1.2 Scope of the book
9(7)
1.3 Methodology
16(9)
1.4 What is to come
25(2)
1.5 Intended audience
27(2)
2 Semantics
29(35)
2.1 The main semantics of conditionals
30(5)
2.2 Inferentialism
35(8)
2.3 Why believe that conditionals have truth conditions?
43(6)
2.4 Arguments against the material conditional account
49(3)
2.5 Arguments against the possible worlds account
52(5)
2.6 The probabilities of conditionals: further considerations against the material conditional account and the possible worlds account
57(4)
2.7 Edgington against truth-conditionality
61(3)
3 Probability
64(27)
3.1 Triviality
64(2)
3.2 Probabilities of conditionals: the empirical turn
66(5)
3.3 Triviality undone
71(6)
3.4 The return of triviality?
77(4)
3.5 Bradley's preservation argument
81(10)
4 Acceptability
91(32)
4.1 Graded acceptability
93(9)
4.2 Qualitative Adams' Thesis
102(5)
4.3 The role of evidential support
107(2)
4.4 Anticipated objections
109(6)
4.5 Aside: the acceptability of counterfactuals
115(2)
4.6 Testing the role of evidential support
117(3)
4.7 Refining the proposal?
120(3)
5 Closure
123(27)
5.1 The Lottery and Preface Paradoxes, conditional versions
124(3)
5.2 Closure principles: analytical results
127(6)
5.3 Going beyond strict validity: a conjecture
133(3)
5.4 Determining degrees of validity
136(9)
5.5 Testing the conjecture: some pointers
145(5)
6 Updating
150(23)
6.1 The data
151(3)
6.2 Charting the field
154(10)
6.3 Updating on conditionals as explanatory reasoning
164(9)
7 Progress?
173(6)
Appendices
A Proof of Theorem 5.2.1
179(17)
B Survey experiment materials
196(1)
Bibliography 197(16)
Index 213
Igor Douven is Directeur de Recherche at Sciences, normes, décision, Université Paris-Sorbonne.