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E-raamat: Experimenting with Dynamic Macromodels: Growth and Cycles

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Experimenting with Dynamic Macromodels: Growth and CyclesSuurem pilt
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This book presents a macroeconomic dynamic model a la Solow-Swan, including the market for labor, in a discrete time structure. The model is expanded to include expenditure on R&D and public expenditure on infrastructure. For each of the three models the results are shown in time series figures, which demonstrate that even small changes in the parameters produce responses in the time behavior of the main variables: from steady growth, to regular cycles, to chaotic-like time paths.
Preface VII
Part I Basics
1 Foundations of Macroeconomic Dynamics
3
1.1 Introduction
3
1.2 Growth and Cycles
4
1.3 Solow's Model: Continuous Time Version
6
1.4 Harrod--Domar's Alternative
9
1.5 Discrete Time Formulation of Solow's Model
10
1.6 Continuous Versus Discrete Time
12
1.7 Aggregation
12
2 Population Dynamics and the Labour Market
15
2.1 Laws of Population Dynamics
15
2.1.1 Continuous Time Laws
15
2.1.2 Discrete Time Laws
17
2.2 Labour Supply
18
2.3 Labour Demand
20
2.4 Market Equilibrium
21
3 Production Functions
23
3.1 Introduction
23
3.2 Cobb—Douglas Production Functions
24
3.3 CES Production Functions
25
3.4 Leontief Production Functions
27
3.5 Remainder
28
Part II Simple Dynamic Macromodels
4 A Model Without R&D and Public Expenditure
31
4.1 Introduction
31
4.2 The Macro Model
32
4.3 Choice of Functions to Implement the Model
35
4.3.1 Cobb-Douglas Production Function
36
4.3.2 CES Production Function
36
4.3.3 Leontief Technology
36
4.3.4 Labour Supply
37
5 Some Determinants of Endogenous Growth
39
5.1 Introduction
39
5.2 Expenditure on R&D
39
5.3 Endogenous Technical Progress
40
5.4 Choice of Functions for the Simulations
44
6 Public Expenditure and Taxes
45
6.1 Introduction
45
6.2 Modelling Taxes and Public Expenditure
45
6.3 The Production Sector of the Economy
46
6.4 A Macromodel with R&D and Public Expenditure
47
6.5 Choosing the Functions for the Simulations
49
Part III Computer Simulations
7 Stationary Population: Cobb-Douglas Simulations
55
7.1 Preliminary
55
7.2 No R&D Activity
56
7.2.1 First COD-Simulation
56
7.2.2 Second COD-Simulation
63
7.2.3 Third COD-Simulation
70
7.3 Positive R&D Expenditure
76
7.3.1 Fourth COD-Simulation
76
7.3.2 Fifth COD-Simulation
84
8 Stationary Population: CES Simulations
91
8.1 Introduction
91
8.2 No R&D Activity
92
8.2.1 First CES-Simulation
92
8.2.2 Second CES-Simulation
99
8.2.3 Third CES-Simulation
105
8.2.4 Fourth CES-Simulation
113
8.3 Positive R&D Expenditure
119
8.3.1 Fifth CES-Simulation
119
8.3.2 Sixth CES-Simulation
125
8.4 Afterthought
133
9 Stationary Population: Leontief Simulations
135
9.1 Introduction
135
9.2 No R&D Activity
135
9.2.1 First LEO-Simulation
135
9.2.2 Second LEO-Simulation
141
9.2.3 Third LEO-Simulation
150
9.3 Positive R&D Expenditure
151
9.3.1 Fourth LEO-Simulation
151
9.3.2 Fifth LEO-Simulation
159
10 Steady Growing Population
169
10.1 Introduction
169
10.2 No R&D Activity
169
10.2.1 First COD-Simulation
169
10.3 Positive R&D Expenditure
173
10.3.1 Second COD-Simulation
173
10.3.2 Third COD-Simulation
181
11 Logistic Growing Population
189
11.1 Preliminary
189
11.2 No R&D Activity
191
11.2.1 First COD-Simulation
191
11.2.2 Second COD-Simulation
196
11.3 Positive R&D Expenditure
204
11.3.1 Third COD-Simulation
204
11.3.2 Fourth COD-Simulation
210
11.4 Logistic Population Growth: A Caveat
213
12 Effects of Public Expenditure
215
12.1 Preliminary
215
12.2 Zero R&D Activity
215
12.2.1 First CODPE-Simulation
216
12.2.2 Second CODPE-Simulation
224
12.3 Positive R&D Expenditure
227
12.3.1 Third CODPE-Simulation
227
12.3.2 Fourth CODPE-Simulation
236
12.3.3 Fifth CODPE-Simulation
245
12.4 Conclusion
247
13 Material Welfare Comparisons
249
13.1 Motivation
249
13.2 Material Welfare Results
250
Appendix 253
References 259
Index 263
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