| About the Author |
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xi | |
| Preface |
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xiii | |
| Acknowledgments |
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xvii | |
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PART ONE AN INTRODUCTION TO THE CRISIS |
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1 | (78) |
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Chapter 1 Healthy Skepticism for Risk Management |
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3 | (18) |
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5 | (3) |
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Key Definitions: Risk Management and Some Related Terms |
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8 | (6) |
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14 | (3) |
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Scope and Objectives of This Book |
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17 | (4) |
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Chapter 2 A Summary of the Current State of Risk Management |
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21 | (14) |
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A Short and Entirely-Too-Superficial History of Risk |
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21 | (4) |
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Current State of Risk Management in the Organization |
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25 | (1) |
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Current Risks and How They Are Assessed |
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26 | (9) |
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Chapter 3 How Do We Know What Works? |
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35 | (26) |
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Anecdote: The Risk of Outsourcing Drug Manufacturing |
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36 | (4) |
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Why It's Hard to Know What Works |
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40 | (4) |
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An Assessment of Self-Assessments |
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44 | (4) |
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Potential Objective Evaluations of Risk Management |
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48 | (9) |
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57 | (4) |
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Chapter 4 Getting Started: A Simple Straw Man Quantitative Model |
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61 | (18) |
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A Simple One-for-One Substitution |
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63 | (1) |
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The Expert as the Instrument |
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64 | (3) |
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A Quick Overview of "Uncertainty Math" |
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67 | (5) |
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Establishing Risk Tolerance |
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72 | (1) |
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Supporting the Decision: A Return on Mitigation |
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73 | (2) |
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Making the Straw Man Better |
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75 | (4) |
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79 | (176) |
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Chapter 5 The "Four Horsemen" of Risk Management: Some (Mostly) Sincere Attempts to Prevent an Apocalypse |
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81 | (28) |
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83 | (3) |
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War Quants: How World War II Changed Risk Analysis Forever |
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86 | (4) |
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90 | (6) |
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Management Consulting: How a Power Tie and a Good Pitch Changed Risk Management |
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96 | (7) |
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103 | (2) |
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Major Risk Management Problems to Be Addressed |
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105 | (4) |
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Chapter 6 An Ivory Tower of Babel: Fixing the Confusion about Risk |
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109 | (26) |
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The Frank Knight Definition |
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111 | (3) |
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Knight's Influence in Finance and Project Management |
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114 | (4) |
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A Construction Engineering Definition |
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118 | (1) |
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119 | (2) |
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121 | (7) |
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128 | (3) |
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131 | (4) |
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Chapter 7 The Limits of Expert Knowledge: Why We Don't Know What We Think We Know about Uncertainty |
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135 | (28) |
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The Right Stuff: How a Group of Psychologists Might Save Risk Analysis |
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137 | (2) |
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Mental Math: Why We Shouldn't Trust the Numbers in Our Heads |
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139 | (3) |
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"Catastrophic" Overconfidence |
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142 | (8) |
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The Mind of "Aces": Possible Causes and Consequences of Overconfidence |
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150 | (5) |
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Inconsistencies and Artifacts: What Shouldn't Matter Does |
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155 | (5) |
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Answers to Calibration Tests |
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160 | (3) |
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Chapter 8 Worse Than Useless: The Most Popular Risk Assessment Method and Why It Doesn't Work |
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163 | (30) |
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A Few Examples of Scores and Matrices |
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164 | (6) |
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Does That Come in "Medium"?: Why Ambiguity Does Not Offset Uncertainty |
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170 | (3) |
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Unintended Effects of Scales: What You Don't Know Can Hurt You |
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173 | (10) |
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Different but Similar-Sounding Methods and Similar but Different-Sounding Methods |
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183 | (10) |
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Chapter 9 Bears, Swans and Other Obstacles to Improved Risk Management |
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193 | (30) |
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Algorithm Aversion and a Key Fallacy |
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194 | (4) |
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Algorithms versus Experts: Generalizing the Findings |
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198 | (5) |
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203 | (6) |
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Major Mathematical Misconceptions |
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209 | (8) |
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We're Special: The Belief That Risk Analysis Might Work, but Not Here |
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217 | (6) |
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Chapter 10 Where Even the Quants Go Wrong: Common and Fundamental Errors in Quantitative Models |
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223 | (32) |
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A Survey of Analysts Using Monte Carlos |
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224 | (4) |
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228 | (8) |
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Financial Models and the Shape of Disaster: Why Normal Isn't So Normal |
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236 | (7) |
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Following Your Inner Cow: The Problem with Correlations |
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243 | (5) |
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The Measurement Inversion |
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248 | (2) |
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Is Monte Carlo Too Complicated? |
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250 | (5) |
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255 | (90) |
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Chapter 11 Starting with What Works |
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257 | (36) |
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259 | (7) |
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Getting Your Probabilities Calibrated |
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266 | (6) |
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Using Data for Initial Benchmarks |
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272 | (8) |
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Checking the Substitution |
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280 | (5) |
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285 | (8) |
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Chapter 12 Improving the Model |
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293 | (30) |
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294 | (11) |
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Adding Detail to the Model |
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305 | (7) |
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Advanced Methods for Improving Expert's Subjective Estimates |
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312 | (3) |
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315 | (2) |
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Self-Examinations for Modelers |
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317 | (6) |
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Chapter 13 The Risk Community: Intra- and Extra-organizational Issues of Risk Management |
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323 | (22) |
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324 | (3) |
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327 | (4) |
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Incentives for a Calibrated Culture |
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331 | (6) |
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Extraorganizational Issues: Solutions beyond Your Office Building |
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337 | (2) |
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Practical Observations from Trustmark |
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339 | (2) |
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Final Thoughts on Quantitative Models and Better Decisions |
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341 | (4) |
| Additional Calibration Tests and Answers |
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345 | (12) |
| Index |
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357 | |