Figures |
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xiii | |
Tables |
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xv | |
Preface |
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xvii | |
Part I Static Portfolio Choice and Asset Pricing |
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1 Choice under Uncertainty |
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3 | (20) |
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3 | (2) |
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1.1.1 Sketch of von Neumann-Morgenstern Theory |
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4 | (1) |
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5 | (5) |
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1.2.1 Jensen's Inequality and Risk Aversion |
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5 | (2) |
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1.2.2 Comparing Risk Aversion |
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7 | (2) |
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1.2.3 The Arrow-Pratt Approximation |
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9 | (1) |
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1.3 Tractable Utility Functions |
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10 | (2) |
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1.4 Critiques of Expected Utility Theory |
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12 | (3) |
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12 | (1) |
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13 | (1) |
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1.4.3 First-Order Risk Aversion and Prospect Theory |
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14 | (1) |
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15 | (5) |
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1.5.1 Comparing Risks with the Same Mean |
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16 | (2) |
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1.5.2 Comparing Risks with Different Means |
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18 | (1) |
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1.5.3 The Principle of Diversification |
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19 | (1) |
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1.6 Solution and Further Problems |
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20 | (3) |
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2 Static Portfolio Choice |
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23 | (24) |
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2.1 Choosing Risk Exposure |
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23 | (7) |
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2.1.1 The Principle of Participation |
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23 | (1) |
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2.1.2 A Small Reward for Risk |
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24 | (1) |
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2.1.3 The CARA-Normal Case |
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25 | (2) |
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2.1.4 The CRRA-Lognormal Case |
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27 | (3) |
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2.1.5 The Growth-Optimal Portfolio |
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30 | (1) |
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2.2 Combining Risky Assets |
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30 | (13) |
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31 | (2) |
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2.2.2 One Risky and One Safe Asset |
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33 | (1) |
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34 | (1) |
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2.2.4 The Global Minimum-Variance Portfolio |
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35 | (4) |
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2.2.5 The Mutual Fund Theorem |
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39 | (1) |
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2.2.6 One Riskless Asset and N Risky Assets |
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39 | (3) |
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2.2.7 Practical Difficulties |
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42 | (1) |
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2.3 Solutions and Further Problems |
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43 | (4) |
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3 Static Equilibrium Asset Pricing |
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47 | (36) |
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3.1 The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) |
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47 | (8) |
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3.1.1 Asset Pricing Implications of the Sharpe-Lintner CAPM |
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48 | (2) |
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50 | (1) |
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3.1.3 Beta Pricing and Portfolio Choice |
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51 | (3) |
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3.1.4 The Black-Litterman Model |
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54 | (1) |
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3.2 Arbitrage Pricing and Multifactor Models |
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55 | (6) |
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3.2.1 Arbitrage Pricing in a Single-Factor Model |
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55 | (4) |
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59 | (1) |
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3.2.3 The Conditional CAPM as a Multifactor Model |
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60 | (1) |
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61 | (16) |
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61 | (5) |
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3.3.2 The CAPM and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns |
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66 | (6) |
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3.3.3 Alternative Responses to the Evidence |
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72 | (5) |
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3.4 Solution and Further Problems |
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77 | (6) |
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4 The Stochastic Discount Factor |
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83 | (38) |
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83 | (7) |
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4.1.1 The SDF in a Complete Market |
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83 | (1) |
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4.1.2 The Riskless Asset and Risk-Neutral Probabilities |
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84 | (1) |
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4.1.3 Utility Maximization and the SDF |
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85 | (1) |
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4.1.4 The Growth-Optimal Portfolio and the SDF |
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85 | (1) |
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4.1.5 Solving Portfolio Choice Problems |
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86 | (1) |
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4.1.6 Perfect Risksharing |
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87 | (1) |
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4.1.7 Existence of a Representative Agent |
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88 | (1) |
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4.1.8 Heterogeneous Beliefs |
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89 | (1) |
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90 | (3) |
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4.2.1 Constructing an SDF in the Payoff Space |
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90 | (2) |
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4.2.2 Existence of a Positive SDF |
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92 | (1) |
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4.3 Properties of the SDF |
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93 | (10) |
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4.3.1 Risk Premia and the SDF |
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93 | (2) |
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95 | (5) |
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100 | (2) |
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102 | (1) |
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4.3.5 Time-Series Properties |
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102 | (1) |
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4.4 Generalized Method of Moments |
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103 | (9) |
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104 | (1) |
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4.4.2 Important GMM Estimators |
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105 | (2) |
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4.4.3 Traditional Tests in the GMM Framework |
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107 | (2) |
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109 | (3) |
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112 | (2) |
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4.6 Solutions and Further Problems |
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114 | (7) |
Part II Intertemporal Portfolio Choice and Asset Pricing |
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5 Present Value Relations |
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121 | (40) |
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121 | (6) |
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5.1.1 Tests of Autocorrelation in Stock Returns |
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124 | (1) |
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5.1.2 Empirical Evidence on Autocorrelation in Stock Returns |
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125 | (2) |
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5.2 Present Value Models with Constant Discount Rates |
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127 | (7) |
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5.2.1 Dividend-Based Models |
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127 | (4) |
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5.2.2 Earnings-Based Models |
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131 | (1) |
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132 | (2) |
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5.3 Present Value Models with Time-Varying Discount Rates |
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134 | (10) |
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5.3.1 The Campbell-Shiller Approximation |
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134 | (3) |
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5.3.2 Short- and Long-Term Return Predictability |
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137 | (3) |
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5.3.3 Interpreting US Stock Market History |
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140 | (3) |
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5.3.4 VAR Analysis of Returns |
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143 | (1) |
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5.4 Predictive Return Regressions |
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144 | (6) |
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145 | (1) |
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5.4.2 Recent Responses Using Financial Theory |
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146 | (2) |
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148 | (2) |
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5.5 Drifting Steady-State Models |
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150 | (3) |
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5.5.1 Volatility and Valuation |
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150 | (1) |
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5.5.2 Drifting Steady-State Valuation Model |
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151 | (2) |
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5.5.3 Inflation and the Fed Model |
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153 | (1) |
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5.6 Present Value Logic and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns |
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153 | (3) |
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5.6.1 .Quality as a Risk Factor |
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154 | (1) |
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5.6.2 Cross-Sectional Measures of the Equity Premium |
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154 | (2) |
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5.7 Solution and Further Problems |
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156 | (5) |
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6 Consumption-Based Asset Pricing |
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161 | (46) |
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6.1 Lognormal Consumption with Power Utility |
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162 | (1) |
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163 | (5) |
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6.2.1 Responses to the Puzzles |
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166 | (2) |
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168 | (8) |
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6.3.1 Time-Varying Disaster Risk |
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173 | (3) |
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6.4 Epstein-Zin Preferences |
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176 | (6) |
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6.4.1 Deriving the SDF for Epstein-Zin Preferences |
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178 | (4) |
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182 | (5) |
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6.5.1 Predictable Consumption Growth |
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182 | (2) |
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6.5.2 Heteroskedastic Consumption |
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184 | (2) |
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6.5.3 Empirical Specification |
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186 | (1) |
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187 | (4) |
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191 | (8) |
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6.7.1 A Ratio Model of Habit |
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192 | (1) |
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6.7.2 The Campbell-Cochrane Model |
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193 | (5) |
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6.7.3 Alternative Models of Time-Varying Risk Aversion |
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198 | (1) |
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199 | (2) |
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6.9 Solutions and Further Problems |
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201 | (6) |
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7 Production-Based Asset Pricing |
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207 | (22) |
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7.1 Physical Investment with Adjustment Costs |
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207 | (8) |
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7.1.1 A q-Theory Model of Investment |
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208 | (4) |
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212 | (2) |
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7.1.3 Explaining Firms' Betas |
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214 | (1) |
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7.2 General Equilibrium with Production |
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215 | (7) |
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7.2.1 Long-Run Consumption Risk in General Equilibrium |
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215 | (5) |
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7.2.2 Variable Labor Supply |
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220 | (2) |
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7.2.3 Habit Formation in General Equilibrium |
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222 | (1) |
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7.3 Marginal Rate of Transformation and the SDF |
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222 | (4) |
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7.4 Solution and Further Problem |
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226 | (3) |
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8 Fixed-Income Securities |
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229 | (40) |
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230 | (7) |
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8.1.1 Yields and Holding-Period Returns |
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230 | (4) |
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234 | (2) |
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236 | (1) |
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8.2 The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure |
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237 | (4) |
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8.2.1 Restrictions on Interest Rate Dynamics |
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238 | (1) |
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239 | (2) |
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8.3 Affine Term Structure Models |
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241 | (9) |
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8.3.1 Completely Affine Homoskedastic Single-Factor Model |
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242 | (3) |
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8.3.2 Completely Affine Heteroskedastic Single-Factor Model |
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245 | (1) |
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8.3.3 Essentially Affine Models |
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246 | (3) |
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8.3.4 Strong Restrictions and Hidden Factors |
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249 | (1) |
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8.4 Bond Pricing and the Dynamics of Consumption Growth and Inflation |
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250 | (7) |
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8.4.1 Real Bonds and Consumption Dynamics |
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250 | (2) |
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8.4.2 Permanent and Transitory Shocks to Marginal Utility |
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252 | (2) |
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8.4.3 Real Bonds, Nominal Bonds, and Inflation |
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254 | (3) |
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8.5 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates |
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257 | (7) |
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8.5.1 Interest Parity and the Carry Trade |
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258 | (2) |
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8.5.2 The Domestic and Foreign SDF |
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260 | (4) |
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8.6 Solution and Further Problems |
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264 | (5) |
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269 | (38) |
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9.1 Myopic Portfolio Choice |
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270 | (2) |
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9.2 Intertemporal Hedging |
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272 | (11) |
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272 | (1) |
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9.2.2 Hedging Interest Rates |
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273 | (4) |
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9.2.3 Hedging Risk Premia |
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277 | (6) |
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9.2.4 Alternative Approaches |
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283 | (1) |
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9.3 The Intertemporal CAPM |
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283 | (7) |
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283 | (4) |
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9.3.2 Hedging Volatility: A Three-Beta Model |
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287 | (3) |
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9.4 The Term Structure of Risky Assets |
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290 | (5) |
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290 | (1) |
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9.4.2 Asset Pricing Theory and the Risky Term Structure |
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291 | (4) |
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295 | (4) |
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9.6 Solutions and Further Problems |
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299 | (8) |
Part III Heterogeneous Investors |
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307 | (34) |
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10.1 Labor Income and Portfolio Choice |
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308 | (10) |
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10.1.1 Static Portfolio Choice Models |
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308 | (4) |
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10.1.2 Multiperiod Portfolio Choice Models |
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312 | (4) |
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10.1.3 Labor Income and Asset Pricing |
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316 | (2) |
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10.2 Limited Participation |
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318 | (5) |
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10.2.1 Wealth, Participation, and Risktaking |
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318 | (4) |
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10.2.2 Asset Pricing Implications of Limited Participation |
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322 | (1) |
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10.3 Underdiversification |
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323 | (8) |
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10.3.1 Empirical Evidence |
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324 | (3) |
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10.3.2 Effects on the Wealth Distribution |
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327 | (2) |
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10.3.3 Asset Pricing Implications of Underdiversification |
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329 | (2) |
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10.4 Responses to Changing Market Conditions |
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331 | (3) |
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334 | (1) |
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10.6 Solutions and Further Problems |
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335 | (6) |
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11 Risksharing and Speculation |
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341 | (30) |
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342 | (5) |
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11.1.1 Asset Pricing with Uninsurable Income Risk |
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342 | (3) |
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11.1.2 Market Design with Incomplete Markets |
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345 | (1) |
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11.1.3 General Equilibrium with Imperfect Risksharing |
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346 | (1) |
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347 | (2) |
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349 | (5) |
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11.3.1 Punishment by Exclusion |
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349 | (4) |
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11.3.2 Punishment by Seizure of Collateral |
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353 | (1) |
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11.4 Heterogeneous Beliefs |
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354 | (9) |
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354 | (2) |
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11.4.2 The Harrison-Kreps Model |
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356 | (3) |
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11.4.3 Endogenou Margin Requirements |
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359 | (4) |
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11.5 Solution and Further Problems |
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363 | (8) |
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12 Asymmetric Information and liquidity |
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371 | (34) |
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12.1 Rational Expectations Equilibrium |
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372 | (12) |
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12.1.1 Fully Revealing Equilibrium |
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372 | (3) |
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12.1.2 Partially Revealing Equilibrium |
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375 | (3) |
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12.1.3 News, Trading Volume, and Returns |
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378 | (2) |
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12.1.4 Equilibrium with Costly Information |
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380 | (3) |
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12.1.5 Higher-Order Expectations |
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383 | (1) |
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12.2 Market Microstructure |
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384 | (8) |
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12.2.1 Information and the Bid-Ask Spread |
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385 | (4) |
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12.2.2 Information and Market Impact |
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389 | (3) |
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12.2.3 Diminishing Returns in Active Asset Management |
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392 | (1) |
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12.3 Liquidity and Asset Pricing |
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392 | (8) |
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12.3.1 Constant Trading Costs and Asset Prices |
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393 | (2) |
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12.3.2 Random Trading Costs and Asset Prices |
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395 | (1) |
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12.3.3 Margins and Asset Prices |
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396 | (1) |
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12.3.4 Margins and Trading Costs |
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397 | (3) |
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12.4 Solution and Further Problems |
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400 | (5) |
References |
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405 | (30) |
Index |
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435 | |