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E-raamat: Financial Modelling in Commodity Markets

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Financial Modelling in Commodity Markets provides a basic and self-contained introduction to the ideas underpinning financial modelling of products in commodity markets.

The book offers a concise and operational vision of the main models used to represent, assess and simulate real assets and financial positions related to the commodity markets. It discusses statistical and mathematical tools important for estimating, implementing and calibrating quantitative models used for pricing and trading commodity-linked products and for managing basic and complex portfolio risks.

Key features:











Provides a step-by-step guide to the construction of pricing models, and for the applications of such models for the analysis of real data





Written for scholars from a wide range of scientific fields, including economics and finance, mathematics, engineering and statistics, as well as for practitioners





Illustrates some important pricing models using real data sets that will be commonly used in financial markets

Arvustused

"A concise survey of arbitrage pricing models for commodities, this book may serve as an introduction to the subject and a textbook for a course on commodity price modeling with an eye toward implementation."

Professor Andrea Roncoroni, ESSEC Business School

"This book represents a valuable synthesis of the most relevant classical concepts on commodity markets and of the related financial models. The theoretical arguments are presented in a clear and rigorous way, and a great effort is spent on proposing paradigmatic applications. A very informative methodological appendix assists the reader in grasping a great part of the computational details. I am strongly convinced that this work can effectively act as a textbook for high-level students as well as handbook for scholars."

Professor Roy Cerqueti, Università degli Studi di Macerata

"Financial Modelling in Commodity Markets provides an accessible and clear introduction to important stochastic models for finance, with a special focus on energy markets. Different from competing textbooks, a particular emphasis is placed on the practical implementation of different models and techniques. The exercises at the end of each chapter represent a useful pedagogical tool. This book will be a valuable addition to the library of every graduate student and practitioner in the field."

Professor Claudio Fontana, University of Padova "This book offers a concise and operational vision of the main models used to represent, assess, and simulate real assets and financial positions related to the commodity markets. It discusses statistical and mathematical tools important for estimating, implementing, and calibrating quantitative models for pricing and trading commodity-linked products and managing basic and complex portfolio risks. As a brief investigation of arbitrage price models for commodities, the book can be seen as an introductory book and a commodity price modeling textbook. The book brings together classical notions on commodities and related financial models. The models are presented in a clear fashion with suggested practical applications.

Financial Modeling of Commodity Markets introduces stochastic modeling and practical implementation of models and techniques. There are assignments at the end of each chapter, which is a useful pedagogical tool. This should be valuable for many students in financial modeling.

A nice feature of the book is that it provides a step-by-step guide to the construction of pricing models and the applications of such models to analyze real data. It is written for scholars from a wide range of scientific fields, including economics and finance, mathematics, engineering, statistics, and practitioners. It illustrates some important pricing models using real data sets that are commonly used in the financial markets." Stein Frydenberg, Quantitative Finance Journal

"A concise survey of arbitrage pricing models for commodities, this book may serve as an introduction to the subject and a textbook for a course on commodity price modeling with an eye toward implementation." Professor Andrea Roncoroni, ESSEC Business School

"This book represents a valuable synthesis of the most relevant classical concepts on commodity markets and of the related financial models. The theoretical arguments are presented in a clear and rigorous way, and a great effort is spent on proposing paradigmatic applications. A very informative methodological appendix assists the reader in grasping a great part of the computational details. I am strongly convinced that this work can effectively act as a textbook for high-level students as well as handbook for scholars." Professor Roy Cerqueti, Università degli Studi di Macerata

"Financial Modelling in Commodity Markets provides an accessible and clear introduction to important stochastic models for finance, with a special focus on energy markets. Different from competing textbooks, a particular emphasis is placed on the practical implementation of different models and techniques. The exercises at the end of each chapter represent a useful pedagogical tool. This book will be a valuable addition to the library of every graduate student and practitioner in the field." Professor Claudio Fontana, University of Padova

Preface xi
Introduction xiii
1 Commodity-linked Products
1(22)
1.1 Forward Contracts and Exchange Traded Futures
1(8)
1.1.1 Forward Price
1(3)
1.1.2 Futures Price
4(1)
1.1.3 Spot-forward Relationship
5(2)
1.1.3.1 Spot/Futures Arbitrage and the Basis
7(2)
1.2 Options
9(6)
1.2.1 European Options
9(2)
1.2.2 American Options
11(1)
1.2.3 Option Strategies
11(4)
1.2.4 Exotic Options
15(1)
1.3 Swaps
15(4)
1.3.1 Plain Vanilla Swap
17(1)
1.3.2 Other Swap Types
18(1)
1.4 Commodity Spreads
19(1)
1.5 Exercises
20(2)
1.6 Answers
22(1)
2 Spot Price Modelling
23(18)
2.1 One-factor Models
23(5)
2.1.1 Geometric Brownian Motion
23(3)
2.1.2 Mean-reverting Process
26(2)
2.2 Two-factor and Three-factor Models
28(3)
2.3 Jump-diffusion Models
31(2)
2.4 Seasonality Modelling
33(2)
2.5 Stochastic Volatility Model
35(4)
2.6 Regime-switching Models
39(1)
2.7 Exercises
39(1)
2.8 Answers
40(1)
3 Forward Price Modelling
41(10)
3.1 Forward/Futures Valuation
41(4)
3.2 Forward Price Models
45(3)
3.3 Modelling the Seasonality
48(1)
3.4 Exercises
49(1)
3.5 Answers
50(1)
4 Derivative Valuation
51(18)
4.1 Introduction to Valuation Models
51(2)
4.2 Closed Form Solution Models
53(4)
4.2.1 The Black and Scholes Model
53(3)
4.2.2 The Black Model
56(1)
4.2.3 The Volatility Smile
57(1)
4.3 The Binomial Model
57(7)
4.4 The Monte Carlo Approach
64(2)
4.5 Exercises
66(2)
4.6 Answers
68(1)
5 Applications
69(46)
5.1 Modelling the Italian Electricity Spot Market
69(17)
Jumps or Spikes
70(1)
High Volatility
71(1)
Mean Reversion
71(1)
Seasonality
71(1)
Asymmetric Probability Distribution
72(1)
5.1.1 Data Analysis
72(1)
5.1.2 Price Analysis
73(4)
5.1.3 Log-return Analysis
77(1)
5.1.4 The Model
78(5)
5.1.5 Hedging Strategy
83(3)
Case 1 One-year Payoff Period
86(2)
Case 2 One-month Payoff Period
88(1)
5.2 Spark Spread Modelling
88(10)
5.2.1 The Spot Price Models
90(2)
5.2.2 Data Analysis
92(6)
5.3 Arbitrage Strategy in Commodity Markets
98(17)
5.3.1 Mispricing Investigation
102(4)
5.3.2 Statistical Arbitrage Trading Strategies
106(4)
5.3.3 Forecasting Model
110(5)
6 Essential Statistics and Data Analysis
115(8)
6.1 Plotting Time Series
115(3)
6.2 Probability Distribution Analysis
118(1)
6.3 Some Essential Statistical Tests
119(4)
6.3.1 QQ Test
119(1)
6.3.2 The Autocorrelation Test
120(1)
6.3.3 R2
121(2)
Bibliography 123(6)
Index 129
Viviana Fanelli is Associate Professor of Mathematical Methods of Economics, Actuarial Science and Finance at the University of Bari Aldo Moro in Italy. She has also been an advisor at Mantho Solutions Ltd., London, where she focused on mathematical modelling and quantitative analysis. She has been appointed as course leader on financial risk management at a GARP-ERP Certification Program and as lecturer in energy finance at MIP - Polytechnic of Milan. Her research interests cover commodity finance, asset pricing, arbitrage strategies, dynamic models, interest rate and credit risk modelling. She regularly publishes in academic journals, including Quantitative Finance, European Journal of Operational Research, Applied Energy and Nonlinear Analysis RWA. Viviana holds a PhD in mathematical methods for financial and economic decisions.