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E-raamat: Fragile Balance of Terror: Deterrence in the New Nuclear Age

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"This volume explores the characteristics and risks in the new nuclear age, which is populated by potentially more nuclear states with less reliable and smaller nuclear arsenals, often best by volatile domestic politics, face more and more intense rivalries, and operate in a novel information environment-a situation we have never previously confronted and which carries heightened risks of advertent and inadvertent nuclear use"--

In The Fragile Balance of Terror, the foremost experts on nuclear policy and strategy offer insight into an era rife with more nuclear powers. Some of these new powers suffer domestic instability, others are led by pathological personalist dictators, and many are situated in highly unstable regions of the world—a volatile mix of variables.

The increasing fragility of deterrence in the twenty-first century is created by a confluence of forces: military technologies that create vulnerable arsenals, a novel information ecosystem that rapidly transmits both information and misinformation, nuclear rivalries that include three or more nuclear powers, and dictatorial decision making that encourages rash choices. The nuclear threats posed by India, Pakistan, Iran, and North Korea are thus fraught with danger.

The Fragile Balance of Terror, edited by Vipin Narang and Scott D. Sagan, brings together a diverse collection of rigorous and creative scholars who analyze how the nuclear landscape is changing for the worse. Scholars, pundits, and policymakers who think that the spread of nuclear weapons can create stable forms of nuclear deterrence in the future will be forced to think again.

Contributors: Giles David Arceneaux, Mark S. Bell, Christopher Clary, Peter D. Feaver, Jeffrey Lewis, Rose McDermott, Nicholas L. Miller, Vipin Narang, Ankit Panda, Scott D. Sagan, Caitlin Talmadge, Heather Williams, Amy Zegart

Introduction: The Fragile Balance of Terror 2(20)
Vipin Narang
Scott D. Sagan
PART I NEW CHALLENGES IN THE NEW NUCLEAR AGE
22(200)
1 Multipolar Deterrence in the Emerging Nuclear Era
13(26)
Caitlin Talmadge
2 Psychology, Leaders, and New Deterrence Dilemmas
39(24)
Rose Mcdermott
3 Thermonuclear Twitter?
63(27)
Vipin Narang
Heather Williams
4 Understanding New Nuclear Threats: The Open Source Intelligence Revolution?
90(31)
Amy Zegart
PART II ENDURING CHALLENGES WITH A NEW TWIST
121(2)
5 How Much Is Enough? Revisiting Nuclear Reliability, Deterrence, and Preventive War
123(31)
Jeffrey Lewis
Ankit Panda
6 Survivability in the New Era of Counterforce
154(128)
Christopher Clary
7 The Fulcrum of Fragility: Command and Control in Regional Nuclear Powers
182(27)
Giles David Arceneaux
Peter D. Feaver
8 The Limits of Nuclear Learning in the New Nuclear Age
209(21)
Mark S. Bell
Nicholas L. Miller
Conclusion: The Dangerous Nuclear Future 230(21)
Vipin Narang
Scott D. Sagan
Acknowledgments 251(2)
Contributors 253(2)
Index 255
Vipin Narang is the Frank Stanton Professor of Nuclear Security and Political Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He is the author of Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era and Seeking the Bomb. Follow him on X @narangvipin. Scott D. Sagan is the Caroline S. G. Munro Professor of Political Science, the Mimi and Peter Haas University Fellow in Undergraduate Education, and Senior Fellow and Codirector at the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) at Stanford University. He is the author of The Limits of Safety and coauthor of The Spread of Nuclear Weapons.