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E-raamat: Future of Antarctica: Scenarios from Classical Geopolitics

  • Formaat: EPUB+DRM
  • Sari: Springer Polar Sciences
  • Ilmumisaeg: 03-Dec-2021
  • Kirjastus: Springer Verlag, Singapore
  • Keel: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9789811670954
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  • Formaat: EPUB+DRM
  • Sari: Springer Polar Sciences
  • Ilmumisaeg: 03-Dec-2021
  • Kirjastus: Springer Verlag, Singapore
  • Keel: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9789811670954

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As global great power competition intensifies, there is growing concern about the geopolitical future of Antarctica. This book delves into the question of how can we anticipate, prepare for, and potentially even shape that future? Now in its 60th year, the Antarctic Treaty System has been comparatively resilient and successful in governing the Antarctic region. This book assesses how our ability to make accurate predictions about the future of the Antarctic Treaty System reduces rapidly in the face of political and biophysical complexity, uncertainty, and the passage of time. This poses a critical risk for organisations making long-range decisions about their policy, strategy, and investments in the frozen south.







Scenarios are useful planning tools for considering futures beyond the limits of standard prediction. This book explores how a multi-disciplinary focus of classical geopolitics might be applied systematically to create scenarios on Antarctic futures that are plausible, rigorous, and robust. This book illustrates a pragmatic, nine-step scenario development process, using the topical issue of military activities in Antarctica. Along the way, the authors make suggestions to augment current theory and practice of geopolitical scenario planning. In doing so, this book seeks to rediscover the importance of a classical (primarily state-centric) lens on Antarctic geopolitics, which in recent decades has been overshadowed by more critical perspectives.







This book is written for anyone with an interest in the rigorous assessment of geopolitical futures - in Antarctica and beyond.
1 Introduction
1(16)
1.1 The Antarctic Treaty System: Responsive, Resilient--And Largely Successful
2(2)
1.2 The Antarctic Treaty System: Fears for the Future?
4(1)
1.3 Antarctic Futures and Scenarios
5(2)
1.4 Antarctic Futures: A Multi-disciplinary Approach
7(1)
1.5 Classical and Critical Geopolitics
8(2)
1.6 Towards a Critical Realist Geopolitics?
10(1)
1.7 What This Book is About
11(6)
References
13(4)
2 History of Antarctic Territorial Claims and Spatial Contestation
17(14)
2.1 Introduction
17(1)
2.2 The `Antarctic Problem'
18(2)
2.3 Geopolitics and Resolving the `Antarctic Problem'
20(3)
2.4 The Antarctic Treaty: Setting Aside Geopolitical Differences?
23(4)
2.5 Geopolitics and the Future of Antarctica
27(4)
References
28(3)
3 Scenario Analysis and the Limits of Prediction
31(20)
3.1 Overview
31(1)
3.2 What Are Scenarios?
32(3)
3.3 Ten Key Properties of Scenarios
35(4)
3.4 Reality Check: Scenarios and Our Need to Predict
39(1)
3.5 Plausibility and the `aha' Moment
40(2)
3.6 A Revised Model: Introducing the Zone of Plausibility
42(2)
3.7 Dissecting Turbulence, Uncertainty, Novelty and Ambiguity (TUNA)
44(1)
3.8 Summary
45(6)
References
47(4)
4 Objectives, Approaches and Techniques
51(32)
4.1 Introduction
51(2)
4.2 Objectives, Approaches, and Techniques
53(1)
4.3 Framing Before Reframing
54(1)
4.4 Level 1--Define Your Strategic Objectives
55(1)
4.5 Level 2--Identify Your General Approach/es
55(1)
4.6 A Scenario Toolbox
56(1)
4.7 Deductive Approaches: Intuitive, Archetypal, and Normative
57(1)
4.8 Deductive (Intuitive) Approaches
58(1)
4.9 Deductive (Archetype) Approaches
59(1)
4.10 Deductive (Normative) Approaches
60(1)
4.11 Inductive Approaches
60(1)
4.12 Quantitative approaches
61(2)
4.13 Hybrid approaches
63(1)
4.14 Integrated approaches
64(1)
4.15 Scoping approaches
65(1)
4.16 Engagement approaches
65(4)
4.17 Level 3--Select Your Specific Technique/s
69(1)
4.18 The `Intuitive Logics 2 ×2' Technique
69(7)
4.18.1 Step 1: Identify Your Scenario Standpoint
69(1)
4.18.2 Step 2: Set Your Time Horizon
70(1)
4.18.3 Step 3: Identify the Key Driving Forces
70(1)
4.18.4 Step 4: Distinguish Critical Uncertainties from Predetermined Elements
71(1)
4.18.5 Step 5: Rank Critical Uncertainties by Importance and Uncertainty
72(1)
4.18.6 Step 6: Select Your General Approach/es
72(1)
4.18.7 Step 7: Construct the Scenario Matrix
72(3)
4.18.8 Step 8: Develop the Scenario Narratives
75(1)
4.18.9 Step 9: `Wind Tunnel Test' Current Strategy and Prepare Policy Advice
75(1)
4.19 Insights from the Process and Adding Depth: An Alternative to IL 2 × 2--Towards `IL 5'
76(2)
4.20 Summary
78(5)
References
79(4)
5 Antarctic Geopolitics: Background
83(22)
5.1 Overview
83(1)
5.2 A Brief Recap: Geopolitics--Classical, Critical, and Other Approaches
84(1)
5.3 Antarctica and Classical Geopolitical Analysis
85(1)
5.4 Nine Themes for the Driving Forces of Antarctic Geopolitics
86(1)
5.5 Challenges for the Scenario Planner!
87(2)
5.6 Four Dynamics of Driving Forces
89(3)
5.7 Pulling These Together: The `Dynamic Signature' of a Driving Force
92(1)
5.8 Nine Themes for Driving Forces
93(6)
5.9 Summary
99(6)
References
100(5)
6 Militarisation of Antarctica
105(1)
6.1 Introduction
105(1)
6.2 History of Militarisation in Antarctica
106(5)
6.3 Managing Militarisation Under the Antarctic Treaty 1959
111(1)
6.4 Traditional Military/Strategic Threats in Antarctica
112(7)
6.5 `Dual-Use' Equipment in Antarctica
119(3)
6.6 Summary
122(3)
References
123(2)
7 Antarctic Militarisation: Scenario Analysis
125(1)
7.1 Introduction
125(1)
7.2 Step 1: Identify Your Scenario Standpoint
126(1)
7.3 Step 2: Set Your Time Horizon
127(1)
7.4 Step 3: Identify Driving Forces of Antarctic Militarisation
127(2)
7.5 Step 4: Classify Driving Forces as Predetermined Elements or Critical Uncertainties
129(9)
7.6 Step 5: Rank Driving Forces by Importance and Uncertainty
138(6)
7.7 Step 6: Select Your General Approach/es
144(1)
7.8 Step 7: Construct the Scenario Matrix
145(4)
7.9 Summary
149(4)
References
150(3)
8 Antarctic Militarisation: Five Scenarios
153(16)
8.1 Introduction
153(11)
8.1.1 Scenario 1: Splendid Isolation
154(1)
8.1.2 Scenario 2: Quarantine
155(2)
8.1.3 Scenario 3: Stealth
157(1)
8.1.4 Scenario 4: Cold War II
158(3)
8.1.5 IL 5: A Fifth Scenario for Antarctic Militarisation
161(1)
8.1.6 Scenario 5: Pressures Managed
162(2)
8.2 Step 9: Wind Tunnel Test Current Strategy and Prepare Policy Advice
164(2)
8.3 Summary
166(3)
Reference
167(2)
9 Scenario Analysis and the Classical View of Antarctic Geopolitics
169(16)
9.1 Introduction
169(1)
9.2 Geopolitics: The Intersection of Power, Authority, and Space
170(6)
9.2.1 Power
170(1)
9.2.2 Military Power
171(1)
9.2.3 Scientific and Logistical Power
172(2)
9.2.4 Authority
174(1)
9.2.5 Space
175(1)
9.3 Antarctica Through a Classical Geopolitical Lens
176(6)
9.3.1 Power and International Law
178(2)
9.3.2 Antarctica and `Space in Rivalry Between States'
180(2)
9.4 Summary
182(3)
References
183(2)
10 Conclusion
185(8)
10.1 Our Objectives
186(1)
10.2 Our Findings: Geopolitical Scenario Analysis
187(2)
10.3 Our Findings: Geopolitical Futures for Antarctica
189(4)
References
192(1)
Index 193
Jeffrey McGee is Associate Professor at the Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS) and Faculty of Law at the University of Tasmania. His work is published in leading international journals in the fields of Antarctic policy, international environmental law, and climate change policy. He co-edited the book Anthropocene Antarctica, a special issue of the Australian Journal of Maritime and Ocean Affairs on 21st Century Challenges to the Antarctic Treaty System, and the Edward Elgar Research Handbook on Climate Change, Oceans and Coasts. He is an affiliated researcher with Humanities and Social Science expert group of the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research. He is also a member of the Australian Governments consultative forum for the Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources and the Tasmanian Polar Network. In 2021, Jeff was a member of the Australian delegation to the 43rdAntarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting. He also has experience as a lecturer on tourist flights to the Ross Sea area and East Antarctica.















David Edmiston is a PhD candidate in the Faculty of Law at the University of Tasmania. A career public servant, David holds Masters degrees in public administration and environmental governance, with a focus on Antarctica. In 2019, David undertook an intensive course in geopolitical scenario planning at the Maastricht University Summer School, under the guidance of Dr Leonhardt van Efferink. Davids doctoral project is titled: Portents from the North: Is the Arctic an indicator of future challenges for Antarctic geopolitics, law and governance?















Marcus Haward is Professor of Antarctic and Ocean Governance at the Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania.  He has been a member of Australian delegations to the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting, and to the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources. Marcus has published extensively on Antarctic and ocean governance. He is currently co-leading (with Jeffrey McGee) a multi-year project on Antarctic Geopolitics funded by the Australian Research Council. Marcus co-edited Australia and the Antarctic Treaty System: Fifty Years of Influence UNSW Press, 2011 and most recently authored Governing Oceans in a Time of Change: Fishing for a Future, Edward Elgar, 2020.