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1 | (16) |
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1.1 The Antarctic Treaty System: Responsive, Resilient--And Largely Successful |
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2 | (2) |
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1.2 The Antarctic Treaty System: Fears for the Future? |
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4 | (1) |
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1.3 Antarctic Futures and Scenarios |
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5 | (2) |
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1.4 Antarctic Futures: A Multi-disciplinary Approach |
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7 | (1) |
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1.5 Classical and Critical Geopolitics |
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8 | (2) |
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1.6 Towards a Critical Realist Geopolitics? |
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10 | (1) |
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1.7 What This Book is About |
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11 | (6) |
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13 | (4) |
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2 History of Antarctic Territorial Claims and Spatial Contestation |
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17 | (14) |
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17 | (1) |
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2.2 The `Antarctic Problem' |
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18 | (2) |
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2.3 Geopolitics and Resolving the `Antarctic Problem' |
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20 | (3) |
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2.4 The Antarctic Treaty: Setting Aside Geopolitical Differences? |
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23 | (4) |
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2.5 Geopolitics and the Future of Antarctica |
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27 | (4) |
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28 | (3) |
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3 Scenario Analysis and the Limits of Prediction |
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31 | (20) |
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31 | (1) |
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32 | (3) |
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3.3 Ten Key Properties of Scenarios |
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35 | (4) |
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3.4 Reality Check: Scenarios and Our Need to Predict |
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39 | (1) |
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3.5 Plausibility and the `aha' Moment |
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40 | (2) |
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3.6 A Revised Model: Introducing the Zone of Plausibility |
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42 | (2) |
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3.7 Dissecting Turbulence, Uncertainty, Novelty and Ambiguity (TUNA) |
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44 | (1) |
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45 | (6) |
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47 | (4) |
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4 Objectives, Approaches and Techniques |
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51 | (32) |
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51 | (2) |
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4.2 Objectives, Approaches, and Techniques |
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53 | (1) |
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4.3 Framing Before Reframing |
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54 | (1) |
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4.4 Level 1--Define Your Strategic Objectives |
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55 | (1) |
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4.5 Level 2--Identify Your General Approach/es |
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55 | (1) |
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56 | (1) |
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4.7 Deductive Approaches: Intuitive, Archetypal, and Normative |
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57 | (1) |
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4.8 Deductive (Intuitive) Approaches |
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58 | (1) |
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4.9 Deductive (Archetype) Approaches |
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59 | (1) |
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4.10 Deductive (Normative) Approaches |
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60 | (1) |
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4.11 Inductive Approaches |
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60 | (1) |
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4.12 Quantitative approaches |
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61 | (2) |
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63 | (1) |
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4.14 Integrated approaches |
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64 | (1) |
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65 | (1) |
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4.16 Engagement approaches |
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65 | (4) |
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4.17 Level 3--Select Your Specific Technique/s |
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69 | (1) |
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4.18 The `Intuitive Logics 2 ×2' Technique |
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69 | (7) |
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4.18.1 Step 1: Identify Your Scenario Standpoint |
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69 | (1) |
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4.18.2 Step 2: Set Your Time Horizon |
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70 | (1) |
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4.18.3 Step 3: Identify the Key Driving Forces |
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70 | (1) |
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4.18.4 Step 4: Distinguish Critical Uncertainties from Predetermined Elements |
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71 | (1) |
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4.18.5 Step 5: Rank Critical Uncertainties by Importance and Uncertainty |
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72 | (1) |
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4.18.6 Step 6: Select Your General Approach/es |
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72 | (1) |
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4.18.7 Step 7: Construct the Scenario Matrix |
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72 | (3) |
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4.18.8 Step 8: Develop the Scenario Narratives |
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75 | (1) |
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4.18.9 Step 9: `Wind Tunnel Test' Current Strategy and Prepare Policy Advice |
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75 | (1) |
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4.19 Insights from the Process and Adding Depth: An Alternative to IL 2 × 2--Towards `IL 5' |
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76 | (2) |
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78 | (5) |
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79 | (4) |
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5 Antarctic Geopolitics: Background |
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83 | (22) |
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83 | (1) |
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5.2 A Brief Recap: Geopolitics--Classical, Critical, and Other Approaches |
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84 | (1) |
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5.3 Antarctica and Classical Geopolitical Analysis |
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85 | (1) |
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5.4 Nine Themes for the Driving Forces of Antarctic Geopolitics |
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86 | (1) |
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5.5 Challenges for the Scenario Planner! |
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87 | (2) |
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5.6 Four Dynamics of Driving Forces |
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89 | (3) |
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5.7 Pulling These Together: The `Dynamic Signature' of a Driving Force |
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92 | (1) |
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5.8 Nine Themes for Driving Forces |
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93 | (6) |
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99 | (6) |
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100 | (5) |
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6 Militarisation of Antarctica |
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105 | (1) |
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105 | (1) |
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6.2 History of Militarisation in Antarctica |
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106 | (5) |
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6.3 Managing Militarisation Under the Antarctic Treaty 1959 |
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111 | (1) |
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6.4 Traditional Military/Strategic Threats in Antarctica |
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112 | (7) |
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6.5 `Dual-Use' Equipment in Antarctica |
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119 | (3) |
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122 | (3) |
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123 | (2) |
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7 Antarctic Militarisation: Scenario Analysis |
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125 | (1) |
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125 | (1) |
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7.2 Step 1: Identify Your Scenario Standpoint |
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126 | (1) |
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7.3 Step 2: Set Your Time Horizon |
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127 | (1) |
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7.4 Step 3: Identify Driving Forces of Antarctic Militarisation |
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127 | (2) |
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7.5 Step 4: Classify Driving Forces as Predetermined Elements or Critical Uncertainties |
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129 | (9) |
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7.6 Step 5: Rank Driving Forces by Importance and Uncertainty |
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138 | (6) |
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7.7 Step 6: Select Your General Approach/es |
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144 | (1) |
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7.8 Step 7: Construct the Scenario Matrix |
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145 | (4) |
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149 | (4) |
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150 | (3) |
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8 Antarctic Militarisation: Five Scenarios |
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153 | (16) |
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153 | (11) |
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8.1.1 Scenario 1: Splendid Isolation |
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154 | (1) |
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8.1.2 Scenario 2: Quarantine |
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155 | (2) |
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8.1.3 Scenario 3: Stealth |
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157 | (1) |
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8.1.4 Scenario 4: Cold War II |
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158 | (3) |
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8.1.5 IL 5: A Fifth Scenario for Antarctic Militarisation |
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161 | (1) |
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8.1.6 Scenario 5: Pressures Managed |
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162 | (2) |
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8.2 Step 9: Wind Tunnel Test Current Strategy and Prepare Policy Advice |
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164 | (2) |
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166 | (3) |
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167 | (2) |
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9 Scenario Analysis and the Classical View of Antarctic Geopolitics |
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169 | (16) |
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169 | (1) |
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9.2 Geopolitics: The Intersection of Power, Authority, and Space |
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170 | (6) |
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170 | (1) |
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171 | (1) |
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9.2.3 Scientific and Logistical Power |
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172 | (2) |
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174 | (1) |
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175 | (1) |
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9.3 Antarctica Through a Classical Geopolitical Lens |
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176 | (6) |
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9.3.1 Power and International Law |
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178 | (2) |
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9.3.2 Antarctica and `Space in Rivalry Between States' |
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180 | (2) |
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182 | (3) |
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183 | (2) |
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185 | (8) |
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186 | (1) |
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10.2 Our Findings: Geopolitical Scenario Analysis |
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187 | (2) |
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10.3 Our Findings: Geopolitical Futures for Antarctica |
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189 | (4) |
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192 | (1) |
Index |
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193 | |