This timely Handbook explores how the trajectory of technology can be predicted and strategically prepared for. It provides insight into the value and application of forecasting and roadmapping, covering foundational theories, method taxonomies and established approaches such as foresight and scenario planning.
This timely Handbook explores how the trajectory of technology can be predicted and strategically prepared for. It provides insight into the value and application of forecasting and roadmapping, covering foundational theories, method taxonomies and established approaches such as foresight and scenario planning.
Leading experts examine how the rise of data-driven methods, including patent analysis and bibliometrics, enables earlier identification of trends and innovations, as well as how emerging tools such as AI and machine learning are transforming the accuracy and responsiveness of forecasting. The Handbook presents two unique projects which outline the process of creating relevant technology roadmaps. Contributing authors also showcase outcomes from international collaborative projects, demonstrating how different forecasting tools and collaborative methods can enhance future decision-making.
The Handbook of Technological Forecasting and Roadmapping is a valuable resource for scholars and students of organisational innovation, the economics of innovation, industrial economics, technology and ICT, and science and technology studies. It is also beneficial for policymakers, regulators, government officials and technology managers looking to plan and anticipate future technological developments.
Arvustused
In these uncertain times forecasting and roadmapping are essential tools in forming strategies that are resilient to change. This book takes the reader on a journey into advanced AI and data- driven approaches and illustrates their application in a diverse range of sectors. I recommend it to all who are seeking systematic ways to grasp the future. -- Luke Georghiou, University of Manchester, UK
Contents
Foreword xxi
Scott W. Cunningham
Introduction: from foresight to impact, introducing forecasting and
roadmapping in a transforming world 1
Marina Dabi and Tugrul U. Daim
PART I INTRODUCTION TO TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT
1 The foundation of the general theory of scientific variability for
technological evolution: technological forecasting and managerial
implications 13
Mario Coccia
2 Uncertainities & methods of Futurology, Forecasting, Foresight, and Futures
Research. Case study: artificial intelligence (AI) 33
Sahar Kousari and Sepehr Ghazinoory
3 How medical virtual agents shape individuals behavioural activation
systems: dealing with product intelligence and anthropomorphism, and
implications for product design 50
Andrea Sestino, Luigi Nasta and Stefano Bresciani
4 Integrating technology foresight for problem-solving in European
enterprises 65
Marzenna Anna Weresa, Arkadiusz Micha Kowalski and Magorzata Stefania
Lewandowska
5 Technology foresight toolbox: example from a global automotive supplier 90
Volker Grienitz
PART II TECHNOLOGY INTELLIGENCE BASED FORECASTING
6 Future applications of artificial intelligence in smart manufacturing: a
bibliometric approach 110
Gordana Zeba, Marina Dabi and Tugrul U. Daim
7 Transformation of solar energy technologies through the lens of topic
modeling 152
Tugrul U. Daim, Marina Dabi, Amir Rahmani and Mehdi Zamani
8 Consumer behavioural analytics in metaverses using machine and deep
learning: a literature review and research agenda 175
Pedro Mota Veiga, Sara Santos, Julien Diogo, João J. Ferreira and Cristina
Fernandes
9 An integrated approach to social, technological, economic, environmental
and ethical dimensions in AI-driven smart and sustainable mobility 207
Burcu Aracolu, Haydar Yalçn and Tugrul U. Daim
10 Fintech and supply chain management: exploring financial stability
dynamics through techmining and expert insights 227
Ali Erhan Zalluholu, Dilek Demirhan, Türker Susmu, Burcu Aracolu, ükrü
Sertaç Çak and Haydar Yalçn
11 Roadmapping the emergence of smartphone technologies using patent
analysis: a technology convergence perspective 262
Yan Wang and Xin Li
PART III ROADMAPPING METHODS
12 Foresight insights from hindsight using retrospective roadmapping 283
Killian Manyuchi and Robert Phaal
13 Critical factors for the implementation of technology roadmapping in SMEs:
the case of Trieste Coffee Cluster 305
Cinzia Battistella, Gianluca Murgia and Roberto Pillon
PART IV ROADMAPPING EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES
14 Technology roadmapping in e-commerce: the case study of Akinon e-commerce
company 329
Edwin Garces, Hakan Örengül, Missem Karakurt, Mueyyed Garzuddin, Talha Yiit
Aktan, Tuçe Sayn, Yunus Emre Klçaslan and Fayez Alsoubaie
15 A technology roadmap for a sustainable gaming industry 344
Tugrul U. Daim, rem Düzdar, Ezgi Idil Mert, Zeynep Kiral, Fatma Meltem Nur
Masmas, Murat Sen and Huzeyfe Omer Abdusselamoglu
16 Product roadmap for insurtech companies: the case of telematics 377
Evren Balc, Hüseyin Ege Gökcan, Meltem Mutlu, Ömer Faruk Kutlu, Sena Yüzer,
Angel Contreras Cruz and Tugrul U. Daim
17 Technology roadmap for the fintech industry 390
Gülin dil S. Bolatan, Nilay Öcal, Sercan Ger, Seval Cirlak, Fatih Safa
Akta, Yunus Emre Kuzu, layda Kargac and rem Nur Erya
18 Pharmaceutical technology roadmap 402
Denizhan Demirkol, Shahrzad Z.G. Vahdat, Sla Yildirim, Dilara Özgür, Ramazan
Dere, Fatma Cayvaz Parlak, Zeynep Çetinkale and Tugrul U. Daim
19 Yldz Technopark product roadmap for AI companies: chatbot 421
Nihan Yldrm, Tugrul U. Daim, Dilara Özyldrm, Alper Yldz, Hakan
Turpcu, Gökhan Özbek, Hasan Hüseyin Çelebi, Özlem Genç, Arda Nusirevan Toprak
and eymanur Usta
20 Last mile delivery and logistic industry roadmap 438
Arzu Karaman Akgül, Çala Uçkan, Mehmet Vefa lgün, Aykut Celep, Ahmet Hakan
Parlak and Tugrul U. Daim
PART V ROADMAPPING FOR DISASTERS
21 A technology roadmap for sustainable energy infrastructure in case of
natural disasters 452
Tugrul U. Daim, M. Özgür Kayalica, Üner Çolak, rem Düzdar, Nihan Yldrm,
Gülin dil S. Bolatan, Darya Amini, Denizhan Guven, Arda Korkmaz, Ali Elmas,
Cafer utademir, lke Bikin, Mehmet Kürat Tek, Mustafa Ülker and Bura
Kocada
22 Technology roadmapping for resilient and mobile energy systems to sustain
electricity continuity after earthquakes 472
M. Özgür Kayalica, Sermin Onaygil, Atakan Kirac, Erdem Hayat, Furkan
Koçaslan, Murat Doukan Dolaz, Tamer Koç and Darya Amini
23 Technology roadmap for disaster response and recovery in energy systems
489
Tugrul U. Daim, Nihan Yldrm, M. Özgür Kayalica, Gülin dil S. Bolatan,
rem Düzdar, Darya Amini, Bar Tekin, Sevgi As, Hüseyin Yildirim, Sevim
Beçet, Talha Görücü and Denizhan Guven
Index 507
Edited by Marina Dabi, Professor of International Entrepreneurship and International Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, University of Dubrovnik, Croatia, School of Economics and Business, University of Ljubljana, Slovenia and Tugrul U. Daim, Professor and Associate Director, Mark O. Hatfield Cybersecurity & Cyber Defence Policy Center, Portland State University, US
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