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E-raamat: Intelligence Analysis Fundamentals

  • Formaat: 333 pages
  • Ilmumisaeg: 06-Aug-2018
  • Kirjastus: CRC Press Inc
  • Keel: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9781351249348
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  • Formaat: 333 pages
  • Ilmumisaeg: 06-Aug-2018
  • Kirjastus: CRC Press Inc
  • Keel: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9781351249348

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There are a limited number of intelligence analysis books available on the market. Intelligence Analysis Fundamentals is an introductory, accessible text for college level undergraduate and graduate level courses. While the principles outlined in the book largely follow military intelligence terminology and practice, concepts are presented to correlate with intelligence gathering and analysis performed in law enforcement, homeland security, and corporate and business security roles. Most of the existing texts on intelligence gathering and analysis focus on specific types of intelligence such as target centric intelligence, and many of these, detail information from a position of prior knowledge. In other words, they are most valuable to the consumer who has a working-level knowledge of the subject.

The book is general enough in nature that a lay studentinterested in pursuing a career in intelligence, Homeland Security, or other related areas of law enforcementwill benefit from it. No prior knowledge of intelligence analysis, functions, or operations is assumed. Chapters illustrate methods and techniques that, over the years, have consistently demonstrate results, superior to those achieved with other means. Chapters describe such analytical methods that are most widely used in the intelligence community and serve as recognized standards and benchmarks in the practice of intelligence analysis. All techniques have been selected for inclusion for their specific application to homeland security, criminal investigations, and intelligence operations.





Uses numerous hands-on activitiesthat can easily be modified by instructors to be more or less challenging depending on the course levelto reinforce concepts





As current and active members of the intelligence community, the authors draw on their decades of experience in intelligence to offer real-world examples to illustrate concepts





All methodologies reflect the latest trends in the intelligence communities assessment, analysis, and reporting processes with all presented being open source, non-classified information





As such, the non-sensitive information presented is appropriateand methods applicablefor use for education and training overseas and internationally





Military-style collection and analysis methods are the primary ones presented, but all are directly correlated intelligence to current concepts, functions and practices within Homeland Security and the law communities





Covers the counterterrorism environment where joint operations and investigative efforts combine military, private sector, and law enforcement action and information sharing

The book will be a welcome addition to the body of literature available and a widely used reference for professionals and students alike.
Preface xiii
About the Authors xvii
1 Defining Intelligence Analysis 1(12)
Introduction
1(1)
What Is Intelligence?
2(1)
What Is Intelligence Analysis?
2(2)
Origins
3(1)
Differences
3(1)
Commonalities
4(1)
Starting with Analysis Requirements
4(3)
Descriptive Requirements
5(1)
Explanatory Requirements
5(1)
Anticipatory Requirements
6(1)
Crime Analysis
7(1)
Military Intelligence Analysis
8(1)
Homeland Security Problem Set
9(1)
The Hybrid Threat
10(1)
Practical Exercise
11(1)
Chapter Summary
11(2)
2 The Intelligence Cycle 13(12)
Introduction
13(1)
Analysis Is a Single Part of the Cycle
14(1)
The Intelligence Cycle
14(8)
Cycle Phases
15(4)
Practical Exercise
19(3)
Chapter Summary
22(3)
3 Thinking about Thinking 25(12)
Introduction
25(1)
Problem Solving
25(1)
Critical Thinking
26(1)
Reflective Thinking
27(2)
Dewey Sequence Problem Solving
27(2)
Practical Exercise
29(1)
Higher-Order Thinking
29(2)
Analysis
29(1)
Evaluation
30(1)
Creating
31(1)
Cognitive Factors that Affect Thinking Quality
31(3)
Complexity
31(1)
Uncertainty
32(1)
Bias
33(1)
Subject Matter Expertise
33(1)
Chapter Summary
34(3)
4 Perception and Deception 37(18)
Introduction
37(1)
Perception
38(2)
Practical Exercise
38(1)
Misperception
38(2)
Deception
40(7)
Personal (Self) Deception
41(3)
How to Deceive
44(1)
Barton Whaley's 10-Step Deception Process
44(3)
How to Detect Deception
47(6)
Finding Patterns of Congruity and Incongruity (Scientific Method)
47(4)
The Plus or Minus Rule
51(1)
The Congruity/Incongruity Rule and the Analyst's Advantage
52(1)
Chapter Summary
53(2)
5 Knowing Your Audience 55(18)
Introduction
55(1)
Identify and Write for Your Audience
56(1)
Choosing Your Supporting Evidence
57(2)
Statistics
58(1)
Factual Examples
59(1)
Expert Opinions
60(1)
Organizing Information for the User
60(8)
Findings Intelligence Assessments
60(5)
Foundational Evidence
65(1)
Justification (Logical Reasoning)
66(2)
Chapter Summary
68(5)
6 Analytical Communication 73(18)
Introduction
73(1)
Basic Workings of Analytical Communication
73(2)
Communication Preparation
74(1)
Communication Execution
74(1)
Product Writing Style
75(3)
Clarity
76(1)
Succinctness
76(1)
Precision
77(1)
Briefings
78(1)
Using Product Templates
78(2)
Sample Product Template
79(1)
Practical Exercise
80(1)
Mastering the BLUF Format
80(3)
Title
81(1)
Executive Summary and Introduction
81(1)
Background
82(1)
Analysis
82(1)
Conclusion
83(1)
Writing for Release
83(1)
Product Visuals
84(1)
Text Boxes
85(1)
Analytical Communications Checklist
86(1)
Chapter Summary
87(4)
7 Defining the Problem 91(12)
Introduction
91(1)
Multiple Contingency Situations
91(4)
Brainstorming Contingencies
92(3)
Problems with Some Definitions
95(1)
Taxonomy of Problem Types
96(3)
Practical Exercise
99(1)
Chapter Summary
99(4)
8 Generating the Hypothesis 103(14)
Introduction
103(1)
Simple Process to Generate a Hypothesis
104(1)
Situational Logic
105(3)
Applying Theory
108(1)
Historical Comparison
109(1)
Choosing between Strategies
110(1)
Dealing with Multiple Hypotheses
110(4)
Strategies for Choosing among Competing Hypotheses
112(2)
Chapter Summary
114(3)
9 The Collection Process 117(18)
Introduction
117(1)
Collection Management
118(3)
Traditional Methods
118(1)
Modern Methods
118(3)
Collection Planning
121(2)
Selecting Sensors and Sources
122(1)
Limitations on Collections
123(1)
Collection Sources and Disciplines
123(3)
People
125(1)
Physical Objects
125(1)
Emanations
125(1)
Documents/Records
125(1)
Special Sources
126(1)
Collection Operations
126(2)
Tipping and Cuing
127(1)
Redundancy
127(1)
Mix
127(1)
Integration
127(1)
Small Element Collection Management Operations
128(1)
Developing an Open Source Collection Plan
128(3)
Chapter Summary
131(4)
10 Analytical Tradecraft 135(50)
Introduction
135(1)
Analytical Methods Techniques
136(3)
SATs
139(35)
Benefits of Using SATs
139(2)
SAT Groupings
141(1)
Pattern Recognition Techniques
141(2)
Social Network Analysis
143(5)
Geospatial Analysis
148(2)
Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA)
150(3)
Diagnostic Techniques
153(8)
Contrarian Techniques
161(5)
Imaginative Thinking Techniques
166(7)
Choosing a Suitable SAT
173(1)
Chapter Summary
174(11)
11 Cognitive Traps for Intelligence Analysis 185(16)
Introduction
185(1)
Bias Categories
185(6)
Personality of the Observer
186(1)
Confirmation Bias
187(1)
Target Fixation
187(1)
Wrong Analogy
188(2)
Organizational Culture
190(1)
Avoiding Cognitive Traps
191(7)
Recognizing the Patterns
191(2)
Properly Framing Problems
193(2)
Leveraging Other Perspectives
195(1)
Structured Analytic Techniques (SATs)
196(2)
Chapter Summary
198(3)
12 Probability Estimation 201(28)
Introduction
201(1)
Analytical Applications to Probability
202(3)
Assessment Probability
202(2)
Reliability and Credibility of Sources
204(1)
Simple Inference
205(3)
Theoretical Probability
205(2)
Experimental Probability
207(1)
Conditional Probability
207(1)
Calculating Risk of Terrorist Attack
208(3)
Historical Application
208(1)
A More Contemporary Application
209(2)
Crime Probabilities
211(4)
Probability in Solving Crime
211(1)
Probability and Law Enforcement Policy
212(1)
Probability in Criminal Justice Policy
213(2)
Tools for Calculating Probability
215(6)
Event Trees
216(1)
Probability Trees
217(1)
Calculating Probability Distribution/Density Using Excel
217(4)
Practical Exercise
221(1)
Chapter Summary
222(7)
13 Creating an Analytical Plan 229(18)
Introduction
229(1)
Initial Appraisal
230(3)
Practical Exercise
233(2)
Exercise Scenario
233(2)
Identifying and Prioritizing the Intelligence Gaps
235(2)
Developing the Collection Plan
237(5)
Allocating Resources and Schedule Development
239(1)
Processing and Exploitation
239(1)
Analysis Phase
240(1)
Allocating Resources and Schedule Development Example
240(2)
Production and Dissemination
242(1)
Chapter Summary
243(4)
14 Preparing and Conducting Intelligence Briefings 247(16)
Introduction
247(4)
Briefings in Law Enforcement and Business
251(1)
Responsibilities of Intelligence Analysts
251(1)
Preparation of Briefing Slides
252(5)
Roles and Relationships
257(2)
Practicing Your Briefing
259(3)
Body Positioning
259(1)
Types of Briefs
260(2)
Summary and Review
262(1)
15 Best Practices 263(20)
Introduction
263(1)
ICD 203's List of Nine Standards
264(1)
Properly Describe Quality and Reliability of Underlying Sources
265(1)
Guidance to Better Describe Quality and Credibility of Underlying Sources
265(1)
Practical Exercise
266(1)
Properly Caveat and Expresses Uncertainties or Confidence in Analytic Judgments
266(2)
Guidance to Ensure Explanation and Expression of Uncertainties or Confidence in Analytic Judgments
267(1)
Properly Distinguish between Underlying Intelligence and Analysts' Assumptions and Judgments
268(1)
Guidance on How to Properly Distinguish between Underlying Intelligence and Analytical Assumptions and Judgments
268(1)
Incorporate Alternative Analysis Where Appropriate
268(3)
Guidance on How to Incorporate Alternative Analysis Where Appropriate
269(2)
Demonstrate Customer Relevance and Addresses Implications
271(1)
Guidance on How to Ensure Customer Relevance and Addresses Implications
271(1)
Use Logical Argumentation
272(2)
Guidance on Using Logical Argumentation
272(2)
Exhibit Consistency of Analysis over Time, or Highlights Changes and Explains Rationale
274(2)
Guidance on Consistency of or Explaining Changes to Analytical Judgments
275(1)
Make Accurate Judgments and Assessments
276(1)
Guidance on Making Accurate Judgments and Assessments
276(1)
Incorporate Effective Visual Information Where Appropriate
277(1)
Guidance on Incorporating Effective Visual Information Where Appropriate
277(1)
Chapter Summary
278(5)
16 Operations Security (OPSEC) 283(20)
Introduction
283(1)
The Foundation of OPSEC
284(13)
OPSEC Process
284(2)
Intelligence vs. Counterintelligence
286(2)
Enforcing OPSEC
288(1)
Open Source Information (OSINT) and Its Effect on OPSEC
289(2)
In a Perfect World
291(2)
Nuts and Bolts
293(4)
Document Markings and Classifications
297(3)
Practical Exercise
299(1)
Chapter Summary
300(3)
Index 303
Dr. Godfrey Garner is a professor at Mississippi College and adjunct professor at Tulane University, teaching Counterterrorism and Intelligence Analysis for the Homeland Security degree programs. Dr. Garner is Director for Mississippi College Center for Counterterror Studies and is a locally recognized authority on terrorism, counterterrorism and conflicts in the Middle East. His work has appeared in Homeland Security Today, Journal of American Diplomacy and Foreign Policy Journal. He is the author of the novels The Balance of Exodus, Danny Kane and the Hunt for Mullah Omar and Clothed in White Raiment. He served in Viet Nam and Afghanistan and completed two military and eight civilian government, intelligence and counterintelligence related tours in Afghanistan.

Patrick McGlynn is a retired Army Intelligence Officer. He has authored multiple authoritative strategic-level intelligence reports addressing terrorism, irregular warfare, WMD, and information operations (IO). His military career has included assignments with the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), military and civilian contractor tours in Afghanistan, Iraq and other Middle East locations serving in various senior theatre-level staff intelligence positions. Since retiring from the military in 2007, Mr. McGlynn has authored technical papers on targeting, articles for various intelligence professional periodicals and has developed analytical training courses for Counter-Improvised Explosive Devices (C-IED), Counter Insurgency Operation (COIN), Analytical Tradecraft, Terrorism, Information Operations, Collection Management, and Network Analysis. Patrick McGlynn has a Masters in Adult Education and Industrial Technology from Georgia Southern University.