Preface |
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xiii | |
About the Authors |
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xvii | |
1 Defining Intelligence Analysis |
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1 | (12) |
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1 | (1) |
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2 | (1) |
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What Is Intelligence Analysis? |
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2 | (2) |
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3 | (1) |
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3 | (1) |
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4 | (1) |
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Starting with Analysis Requirements |
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4 | (3) |
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5 | (1) |
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5 | (1) |
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Anticipatory Requirements |
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6 | (1) |
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7 | (1) |
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Military Intelligence Analysis |
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8 | (1) |
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Homeland Security Problem Set |
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9 | (1) |
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10 | (1) |
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11 | (1) |
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11 | (2) |
2 The Intelligence Cycle |
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13 | (12) |
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13 | (1) |
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Analysis Is a Single Part of the Cycle |
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14 | (1) |
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14 | (8) |
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15 | (4) |
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19 | (3) |
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22 | (3) |
3 Thinking about Thinking |
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25 | (12) |
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25 | (1) |
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25 | (1) |
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26 | (1) |
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27 | (2) |
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Dewey Sequence Problem Solving |
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27 | (2) |
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29 | (1) |
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29 | (2) |
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29 | (1) |
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30 | (1) |
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31 | (1) |
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Cognitive Factors that Affect Thinking Quality |
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31 | (3) |
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31 | (1) |
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32 | (1) |
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33 | (1) |
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33 | (1) |
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34 | (3) |
4 Perception and Deception |
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37 | (18) |
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37 | (1) |
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38 | (2) |
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38 | (1) |
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38 | (2) |
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40 | (7) |
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Personal (Self) Deception |
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41 | (3) |
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44 | (1) |
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Barton Whaley's 10-Step Deception Process |
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44 | (3) |
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47 | (6) |
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Finding Patterns of Congruity and Incongruity (Scientific Method) |
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47 | (4) |
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51 | (1) |
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The Congruity/Incongruity Rule and the Analyst's Advantage |
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52 | (1) |
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53 | (2) |
5 Knowing Your Audience |
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55 | (18) |
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55 | (1) |
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Identify and Write for Your Audience |
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56 | (1) |
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Choosing Your Supporting Evidence |
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57 | (2) |
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58 | (1) |
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59 | (1) |
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60 | (1) |
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Organizing Information for the User |
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60 | (8) |
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Findings Intelligence Assessments |
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60 | (5) |
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65 | (1) |
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Justification (Logical Reasoning) |
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66 | (2) |
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68 | (5) |
6 Analytical Communication |
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73 | (18) |
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73 | (1) |
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Basic Workings of Analytical Communication |
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73 | (2) |
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Communication Preparation |
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74 | (1) |
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74 | (1) |
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75 | (3) |
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76 | (1) |
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76 | (1) |
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77 | (1) |
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78 | (1) |
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78 | (2) |
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79 | (1) |
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80 | (1) |
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Mastering the BLUF Format |
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80 | (3) |
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81 | (1) |
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Executive Summary and Introduction |
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81 | (1) |
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82 | (1) |
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82 | (1) |
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83 | (1) |
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83 | (1) |
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84 | (1) |
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85 | (1) |
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Analytical Communications Checklist |
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86 | (1) |
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87 | (4) |
7 Defining the Problem |
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91 | (12) |
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91 | (1) |
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Multiple Contingency Situations |
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91 | (4) |
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Brainstorming Contingencies |
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92 | (3) |
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Problems with Some Definitions |
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95 | (1) |
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Taxonomy of Problem Types |
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96 | (3) |
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99 | (1) |
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99 | (4) |
8 Generating the Hypothesis |
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103 | (14) |
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103 | (1) |
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Simple Process to Generate a Hypothesis |
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104 | (1) |
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105 | (3) |
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108 | (1) |
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109 | (1) |
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Choosing between Strategies |
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110 | (1) |
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Dealing with Multiple Hypotheses |
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110 | (4) |
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Strategies for Choosing among Competing Hypotheses |
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112 | (2) |
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114 | (3) |
9 The Collection Process |
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117 | (18) |
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117 | (1) |
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118 | (3) |
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118 | (1) |
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118 | (3) |
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121 | (2) |
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Selecting Sensors and Sources |
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122 | (1) |
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Limitations on Collections |
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123 | (1) |
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Collection Sources and Disciplines |
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123 | (3) |
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125 | (1) |
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125 | (1) |
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125 | (1) |
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125 | (1) |
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126 | (1) |
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126 | (2) |
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127 | (1) |
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127 | (1) |
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127 | (1) |
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127 | (1) |
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Small Element Collection Management Operations |
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128 | (1) |
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Developing an Open Source Collection Plan |
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128 | (3) |
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131 | (4) |
10 Analytical Tradecraft |
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135 | (50) |
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135 | (1) |
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Analytical Methods Techniques |
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136 | (3) |
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139 | (35) |
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139 | (2) |
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141 | (1) |
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Pattern Recognition Techniques |
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141 | (2) |
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143 | (5) |
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148 | (2) |
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Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) |
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150 | (3) |
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153 | (8) |
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161 | (5) |
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Imaginative Thinking Techniques |
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166 | (7) |
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173 | (1) |
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174 | (11) |
11 Cognitive Traps for Intelligence Analysis |
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185 | (16) |
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185 | (1) |
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185 | (6) |
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Personality of the Observer |
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186 | (1) |
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187 | (1) |
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187 | (1) |
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188 | (2) |
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190 | (1) |
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191 | (7) |
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191 | (2) |
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Properly Framing Problems |
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193 | (2) |
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Leveraging Other Perspectives |
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195 | (1) |
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Structured Analytic Techniques (SATs) |
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196 | (2) |
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198 | (3) |
12 Probability Estimation |
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201 | (28) |
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201 | (1) |
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Analytical Applications to Probability |
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202 | (3) |
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202 | (2) |
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Reliability and Credibility of Sources |
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204 | (1) |
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205 | (3) |
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205 | (2) |
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207 | (1) |
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207 | (1) |
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Calculating Risk of Terrorist Attack |
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208 | (3) |
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208 | (1) |
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A More Contemporary Application |
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209 | (2) |
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211 | (4) |
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Probability in Solving Crime |
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211 | (1) |
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Probability and Law Enforcement Policy |
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212 | (1) |
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Probability in Criminal Justice Policy |
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213 | (2) |
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Tools for Calculating Probability |
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215 | (6) |
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216 | (1) |
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217 | (1) |
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Calculating Probability Distribution/Density Using Excel |
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217 | (4) |
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221 | (1) |
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222 | (7) |
13 Creating an Analytical Plan |
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229 | (18) |
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229 | (1) |
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230 | (3) |
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233 | (2) |
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233 | (2) |
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Identifying and Prioritizing the Intelligence Gaps |
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235 | (2) |
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Developing the Collection Plan |
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237 | (5) |
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Allocating Resources and Schedule Development |
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239 | (1) |
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Processing and Exploitation |
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239 | (1) |
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240 | (1) |
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Allocating Resources and Schedule Development Example |
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240 | (2) |
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Production and Dissemination |
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242 | (1) |
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243 | (4) |
14 Preparing and Conducting Intelligence Briefings |
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247 | (16) |
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247 | (4) |
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Briefings in Law Enforcement and Business |
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251 | (1) |
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Responsibilities of Intelligence Analysts |
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251 | (1) |
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Preparation of Briefing Slides |
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252 | (5) |
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257 | (2) |
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259 | (3) |
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259 | (1) |
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260 | (2) |
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262 | (1) |
15 Best Practices |
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263 | (20) |
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263 | (1) |
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ICD 203's List of Nine Standards |
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264 | (1) |
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Properly Describe Quality and Reliability of Underlying Sources |
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265 | (1) |
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Guidance to Better Describe Quality and Credibility of Underlying Sources |
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265 | (1) |
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266 | (1) |
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Properly Caveat and Expresses Uncertainties or Confidence in Analytic Judgments |
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266 | (2) |
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Guidance to Ensure Explanation and Expression of Uncertainties or Confidence in Analytic Judgments |
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267 | (1) |
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Properly Distinguish between Underlying Intelligence and Analysts' Assumptions and Judgments |
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268 | (1) |
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Guidance on How to Properly Distinguish between Underlying Intelligence and Analytical Assumptions and Judgments |
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268 | (1) |
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Incorporate Alternative Analysis Where Appropriate |
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268 | (3) |
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Guidance on How to Incorporate Alternative Analysis Where Appropriate |
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269 | (2) |
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Demonstrate Customer Relevance and Addresses Implications |
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271 | (1) |
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Guidance on How to Ensure Customer Relevance and Addresses Implications |
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271 | (1) |
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Use Logical Argumentation |
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272 | (2) |
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Guidance on Using Logical Argumentation |
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272 | (2) |
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Exhibit Consistency of Analysis over Time, or Highlights Changes and Explains Rationale |
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274 | (2) |
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Guidance on Consistency of or Explaining Changes to Analytical Judgments |
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275 | (1) |
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Make Accurate Judgments and Assessments |
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276 | (1) |
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Guidance on Making Accurate Judgments and Assessments |
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276 | (1) |
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Incorporate Effective Visual Information Where Appropriate |
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277 | (1) |
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Guidance on Incorporating Effective Visual Information Where Appropriate |
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277 | (1) |
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278 | (5) |
16 Operations Security (OPSEC) |
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283 | (20) |
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283 | (1) |
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284 | (13) |
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284 | (2) |
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Intelligence vs. Counterintelligence |
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286 | (2) |
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288 | (1) |
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Open Source Information (OSINT) and Its Effect on OPSEC |
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289 | (2) |
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291 | (2) |
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293 | (4) |
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Document Markings and Classifications |
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297 | (3) |
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299 | (1) |
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300 | (3) |
Index |
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303 | |