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E-raamat: Introduction to Cyber Modeling and Simulation

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Introduces readers to the field of cyber modeling and simulation and examines current developments in the US and internationally

This book provides an overview of cyber modeling and simulation (M&S) developments. Using scenarios, courses of action (COAs), and current M&S and simulation environments, the author presents the overall information assurance process, incorporating the people, policies, processes, and technologies currently available in the field. The author ties up the various threads that currently compose cyber M&S into a coherent view of what is measurable, simulative, and usable in order to evaluate systems for assured operation.

An Introduction to Cyber Modeling and Simulation provides the reader with examples of tools and technologies currently available for performing cyber modeling and simulation. It examines how decision-making processes may benefit from M&S in cyber defense. It also examines example emulators, simulators and their potential combination. The book also takes a look at corresponding verification and validation (V&V) processes, which provide the operational community with confidence in knowing that cyber models represent the real world. This book:

  • Explores the role of cyber M&S in decision making
  • Provides a method for contextualizing and understanding cyber risk
  • Shows how concepts such the Risk Management Framework (RMF) leverage multiple processes and policies into a coherent whole
  • Evaluates standards for pure IT operations, "cyber for cyber," and operational/mission cyber evaluations—"cyber for others"
  • Develops a method for estimating both the vulnerability of the system (i.e., time to exploit) and provides an approach for mitigating risk via policy, training, and technology alternatives
  • Uses a model-based approach

An Introduction to Cyber Modeling and Simulation is a must read for all technical professionals and students wishing to expand their knowledge of cyber M&S for future professional work. 

1 Brief Review of Cyber Incidents
1(8)
1.1 Cyber's Emergence as an Issue
3(1)
1.2 Estonia and Georgia -- Militarization of Cyber
4(2)
1.3 Conclusions
6(3)
2 Cyber Security -- An Introduction to Assessment and Maturity Frameworks
9(10)
2.1 Assessment Frameworks
9(1)
2.2 NIST 800 Risk Framework
9(5)
2.2.1 Maturity Models
12(1)
2.2.2 Use Cases/Scenarios
13(1)
2.3 Cyber Insurance Approaches
14(3)
2.3.1 An Introduction to Loss Estimate and Rate Evaluation for Cyber
17(1)
2.4 Conclusions
17(1)
2.5 Future Work
18(1)
2.6 Questions
18(1)
3 Introduction to Cyber Modeling and Simulation (M&S)
19(10)
3.1 One Approach to the Science of Cyber Security
19(2)
3.2 Cyber Mission System Development Framework
21(1)
3.3 Cyber Risk Bow-Tie: Likelihood to Consequence Model
21(1)
3.4 Semantic Network Model of Cyberattack
22(2)
3.5 Taxonomy of Cyber M&S
24(1)
3.6 Cyber Security as a Linear System - Model Example
25(1)
3.7 Conclusions
26(1)
3.8 Questions
27(2)
4 Technical and Operational Scenarios
29(16)
4.1 Scenario Development
30(4)
4.1.1 Technical Scenarios and Critical Security Controls (CSCs)
31(1)
4.1.2 ARMOUR Operational Scenarios (Canada)
32(2)
4.2 Cyber System Description for M&S
34(5)
4.2.1 State Diagram Models/Scenarios of Cyberattacks
34(1)
4.2.2 McCumber Model
35(1)
4.2.3 Military Activity and Cyber Effects (MACE) Taxonomy
36(1)
4.2.4 Cyber Operational Architecture Training System (COATS) Scenarios
37(2)
4.3 Modeling and Simulation Hierarchy - Strategic Decision Making and Procurement Risk Evaluation
39(3)
4.4 Conclusions
42(1)
4.5 Questions
43(2)
5 Cyber Standards for Modeling and Simulation
45(14)
5.1 Cyber Modeling and Simulation Standards Background
46(1)
5.2 An Introduction to Cyber Standards for Modeling and Simulation
47(4)
5.2.1 MITRE's (MITRE) Cyber Threat Information Standards
47(2)
5.2.2 Cyber Operational Architecture Training System
49(1)
5.2.3 Levels of Conceptual Interoperability
50(1)
5.3 Standards Overview - Cyber vs. Simulation
51(5)
5.3.1 Simulation Interoperability Standards Organization (SISO) Standards
52(2)
5.3.2 Cyber Standards
54(2)
5.4 Conclusions
56(1)
5.5 Questions
57(2)
6 Cyber Course of Action (COA) Strategies
59(16)
6.1 Cyber Course of Action (COA) Background
59(5)
6.1.1 Effects-Based Cyber-COA Optimization Technology and Experiments (EBCOTE) Project
59(1)
6.1.2 Crown Jewels Analysis
60(1)
6.1.3 Cyber Mission Impact Assessment (CMIA) Tool
61(2)
6.1.4 Analyzing Mission Impacts of Cyber Actions
63(1)
6.2 Cyber Defense Measurables -- Decision Support System (DSS) Evaluation Criteria
64(4)
6.2.1 Visual Analytics
65(2)
6.2.2 Managing Cyber Events
67(1)
6.2.3 DSS COA and W&A
68(1)
6.3 Cyber Situational Awareness (SA)
68(2)
6.3.1 Active and Passive Situational Awareness for Cyber
69(1)
6.3.2 Cyber System Monitoring and Example Approaches
69(1)
6.4 Cyber COAs and Decision Types
70(1)
6.5 Conclusions
71(1)
6.6 Further Considerations
72(1)
6.7 Questions
72(3)
7 Cyber Computer-Assisted Exercise (CAX) and Situational Awareness (SA) via Cyber M&S
75(14)
7.1 Training Type and Current Cyber Capabilities
77(1)
7.2 Situational Awareness (SA) Background and Measures
78(1)
7.3 Operational Cyber Domain and Training Considerations
79(2)
7.4 Cyber Combined Arms Exercise (CAX) Environment Architecture
81(5)
7.4.1 CAX Environment Architecture with Cyber Layer
82(2)
7.4.2 Cyber Injections into Traditional CAX -- Leveraging Constructive Simulation
84(1)
7.4.3 Cyber CAX -- Individual and Group Training
85(1)
7.5 Conclusions
86(1)
7.6 Future Work
87(1)
7.7 Questions
87(2)
8 Cyber Model-Based Evaluation Background
89(12)
8.1 Emulators, Simulators, and Verification/Validation for Cyber System Description
89(1)
8.2 Modeling Background
90(9)
8.2.1 Cyber Simulators
91(2)
8.2.2 Cyber Emulators
93(1)
8.2.3 Emulator/Simulator Combinations for Cyber Systems
94(2)
8.2.4 Verification, Validation, and Accreditation (W&A)
96(3)
8.3 Conclusions
99(1)
8.4 Questions
100(1)
9 Cyber Modeling and Simulation and System Risk Analysis
101(24)
9.1 Background on Cyber System Risk Analysis
101(3)
9.2 Introduction to using Modeling and Simulation for System Risk Analysis with Cyber Effects
104(1)
9.3 General Business Enterprise Description Model
105(11)
9.3.1 Translate Data to Knowledge
107(7)
9.3.2 Understand the Enterprise
114(1)
9.3.3 Sampling and Cyber Attack Rate Estimation
114(2)
9.3.4 Finding Unknown Knowns -- Success in Finding Improvised Explosive Device Example
116(1)
9.4 Cyber Exploit Estimation
116(4)
9.4.1 Enterprise Failure Estimation due to Cyber Effects
118(2)
9.5 Countermeasures and Work Package Construction
120(2)
9.6 Conclusions and Future Work
122(2)
9.7 Questions
124(1)
10 Cyber Modeling & Simulation (M&S) for Test and Evaluation (T&E)
125(12)
10.1 Background
125(1)
10.2 Cyber Range Interoperability Standards (CRIS)
126(1)
10.3 Cyber Range Event Process and Logical Range
127(3)
10.4 Live, Virtual, and Constructive (LVC) for Cyber
130(4)
10.4.1 Role of LVC in Capability Development
132(1)
10.4.2 Use of LVC Simulations in Cyber Range Events
133(1)
10.5 Applying the Logical Range Construct to System Under Test (SUT) Interaction
134(1)
10.6 Conclusions
135(1)
10.7 Questions
136(1)
11 Developing Model-Based Cyber Modeling and Simulation Frameworks
137(6)
11.1 Background
137(1)
11.2 Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) and System of Systems Description (Data Centric)
137(1)
11.3 Knowledge-Based Systems Engineering (KBSE) for Cyber Simulation
138(3)
11.3.1 DHS and SysML Modeling for Buildings (CEPHEID VARIABLE)
139(1)
11.3.2 The Cyber Security Modeling Language (CySeMoL)
140(1)
11.3.3 Cyber Attack Modeling and Impact Assessment Component (CAMIAC)
140(1)
11.4 Architecture-Based Cyber System Optimization Framework
141(1)
11.5 Conclusions
141(1)
11.6 Questions
142(1)
12 Appendix: Cyber M&S Supporting Data, Tools, and Techniques
143(18)
12.1 Cyber Modeling Considerations
143(5)
12.1.1 Factors to Consider for Cyber Modeling
143(1)
12.1.2 Lessons Learned from Physical Security
144(2)
12.1.3 Cyber Threat Data Providers
146(1)
12.1.4 Critical Security Controls (CSCs)
147(1)
12.1.5 Situational Awareness Measures
147(1)
12.2 Cyber Training Systems
148(6)
12.2.1 Scalable Network Defense Trainer (NDT)
153(1)
12.2.2 SELEX ES NetComm Simulation Environment (NCSE)
153(1)
12.2.3 Example Cyber Tool Companies
154(1)
12.3 Cyber-Related Patents and Applications
154(6)
12.4 Conclusions
160(1)
Bibliography 161(14)
Index 175
JERRY M. COURETAS, PHD, is Technology Lead for the Office of Secretary Defense's (OSD) Modeling and Simulation Coordination Office (DM&SCO) of Booz, Allen & Hamilton in McLean, VA, USA. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief of The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation. Dr. Couretas is a Global Industrial Cyber Security Professional (GICSP), a Project Management Professional (PMP), and a Certified Enterprise Architect (FEAC Institute).
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