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E-raamat: Logical Thinking Process: A Systems Approach to Complex Problem Solving

  • Formaat: 449 pages
  • Ilmumisaeg: 24-May-2007
  • Kirjastus: ASQ Quality Press
  • Keel: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9780873895897
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  • Formaat: 449 pages
  • Ilmumisaeg: 24-May-2007
  • Kirjastus: ASQ Quality Press
  • Keel: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9780873895897
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Dettmer (senior partner, Goal Systems International, "a consortium of management professionals") presents a heavily reworked version of Goldratt's Theory of Constraints (1996), which explained how to apply Eliyahu M. Goldratt's Theory of Constraints, a systems-level approach to policy analysis based on deductive logic, to a logical analysis methodology of logic trees dubbed the Thinking Process. The CD-ROM contains a graphical software application designed to create Thinking Process logic trees. Annotation ©2007 Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com)
Preface xxiii
Acknowledgments xxv
Introduction xxvii
PART I - THE DESTINATION
1(88)
Introduction to the Theory of Constraints
3(28)
Systems and ``Profound Knowledge''
4(1)
The System's Goal
5(1)
The Manager's Role
5(3)
Who Is a Manager?
5(1)
What Is the Goal?
6(1)
Goal, Critical Success Factor, or Necessary Condition?
6(2)
The Concept of System Constraints
8(2)
Systems as Chains
8(1)
The ``Weakest Link''
8(1)
Constraints and Non-constraints
9(1)
A Production Example
9(1)
Relation of Constraints to Quality Improvement
10(1)
Change and the Theory of Constraints
11(1)
TOC Principles
12(2)
Systems as Chains
12(1)
Local vs. System Optima
12(1)
Cause and Effect
13(1)
Undesirable Effects and Critical Root Causes
13(1)
Solution Deterioration
14(1)
Physical vs. Policy Constraints
14(1)
Ideas Are NOT Solutions
14(1)
The Five Focusing Steps of TOC
14(2)
Identify the System Constraint
14(1)
Decide How to Exploit the Constraint
14(1)
Subordinate Everything Else
15(1)
Elevate the Constraint
15(1)
Go Back to Step 1, but Beware of ``Inertia''
15(1)
Throughput, Inventory, and Operating Expense
16(5)
Throughput (T)
16(1)
Inventory/Investment (I)
17(1)
Operating Expense (OE)
17(1)
Which Is Most Important: T, I, or OE?
17(1)
T, I, and OE: An Example
18(1)
T, I, and OE in Not-for-Profit Organizations
19(1)
Universal Measures of Value
19(1)
Passive Inventory
20(1)
Active Inventory (Investment)
20(1)
Managing T Through Undesirable Effects
20(1)
The TOC Paradigm
21(1)
Applications and Tools
21(1)
Drum-Buffer-Rope
21(1)
Critical Chain Project Management
21(1)
Replenishment and Distribution
22(1)
Throughput Accounting
22(1)
The Logical Thinking Process
22(1)
The Intermediate Objectives Map
22(1)
The Current Reality Tree
23(1)
The Evaporating Cloud: A Conflict Resolution Diagram
24(1)
The Future Reality Tree
25(1)
The Prerequisite Tree
25(2)
The Transition Tree
27(1)
The Categories of Legitimate Reservation
28(1)
The Logical Tools as a Complete ``Thinking Process''
29(1)
Figure 1.19: The Six Logical Tools as an Integrated Thinking Process
30(1)
Categories of Legitimate Reservation
31(36)
Definition
32(1)
Purpose
32(1)
Assumptions
33(1)
How to Use This
Chapter
34(1)
Description of the Categories of Legitimate Reservation
34(12)
Clarity
34(1)
Why Clarity Comes First
34(1)
What Clarity Means
34(2)
Entity Existence
36(1)
Completeness
36(1)
Structure
36(2)
Validity
38(1)
Causality Existence
38(2)
Cause Insufficiency
40(1)
The Ellipse
40(2)
Relative Magnitude of Dependent Causes
42(1)
How Many Arrows?
42(1)
The Concept of ``Oxygen''
42(2)
Additional Cause
44(1)
Magnitude
44(1)
Test
44(1)
A Unique Variation of Additional Cause
44(2)
Complex Causality
46(2)
What Is It?
46(1)
Cause Sufficiency
46(1)
Conceptual ``AND''
46(1)
Additional Cause
46(1)
Magnitudinal ``AND''
47(1)
Exclusive ``OR''
47(1)
Symbols
48(9)
Cause-Effect Reversal
49(1)
The ``Fishing Is Good'' Example
49(1)
The Statistical Example
49(1)
The Medical Example
49(1)
Test
50(1)
Predicted Effect Existence
50(1)
Conflict or Differences in Magnitude?
51(1)
Tangible or Intangible?
52(2)
Verbalizing Predicted Effect Existence
54(1)
Tautology (Circular Logic)
55(1)
Baseball Example
56(1)
Vampire Example
56(1)
Test
56(1)
Using the CLR in a Group
57(2)
CLR Known by All
58(1)
CLR Known Only by the Tree-Builder
58(1)
Sufficiency-Based vs. Necessity-Based Logic Trees
59(1)
Symbols and Logic Tree Conventions
59(5)
Three Reasons to Standardize
59(1)
Credibility
60(1)
Ergonomics
60(1)
Miscommunication of Logic
60(1)
A Standard Symbol Set
61(1)
A Standard Convention for Logical Connections
62(2)
Summary
64(1)
Figure 2.36: Categories of Legitimate Reservation: Self-Scrutiny Checklist
65(2)
Intermediate Objectives Map
67(22)
Introduction
68(1)
Definition
68(1)
Purpose
68(1)
Assumptions
68(1)
How to Use This
Chapter
69(1)
System Boundaries, Span of Control, and Sphere of Influence
69(1)
Span of Control
70(1)
Sphere of Influence
70(1)
The External Environment
70(1)
Control vs. Influence
70(1)
Doing the Right Things vs. Doing Things Right
70(2)
The Goal
70(1)
Who Sets the Goal?
71(1)
Critical Success Factors and Necessary Conditions
72(1)
Description of the Intermediate Objectives (IO) Map
72(4)
Strategic Application
73(1)
A Hierarchy of Systems
73(1)
IO Maps Are Unique
74(1)
Characteristics of the IO Map
75(1)
Examples of Strategic Intermediate Objectives Maps
76(1)
Process-Level IO Map
76(1)
System-Level IO Map
76(1)
How to Construct an Intermediate Objectives (IO) Map
76(10)
Define the System
76(2)
Determine the System Goal
78(1)
Determine the Critical Success Factors
79(1)
Determine the Key Necessary Conditions
80(2)
Arrange the IO Map Components
82(1)
Connect the Goal, Critical Success Factors, and Necessary Conditions
82(1)
Verify the Connections
83(2)
The ``10,000-Foot Test''
85(1)
Enlist Outside Scrutiny of the Entire IO Map
85(1)
Figure 3.14: Procedures for Constructing an Intermediate Objectives (IO) Map - abbreviated checklist
86(1)
Summary and Conclusion
87(1)
Figure 3.15: Example: A Real-World IO Map
88(1)
PART II - GAP ANALYSIS AND CORRECTION
89(170)
Current Reality Tree
91(68)
Definition
92(1)
Purpose
93(1)
Assumptions
94(1)
How to Use This
Chapter
94(1)
Description of the Current Reality Tree (CRT)
95(23)
A Single Tool or Part of a Set
96(1)
Span of Control and Sphere of Influence
97(1)
Correlation vs. Cause and Effect
98(1)
Predicting Rain in Siberia: A Simple Example of Correlation
98(1)
Fibromyalgia and Myofascial Pain: A Complex Real-World Example
99(1)
Undesirable Effects
100(1)
Undesirable by What Standard?
100(1)
How to Identify and Check for Undesirability
101(1)
Existence in Reality
101(1)
Why the Emphasis on UDEs?
102(1)
Root Causes
102(3)
Core Problems and Root Causes
105(1)
The ``70 Percent'' Criterion
105(1)
Inability to Act on a Core Problem
105(1)
A Solution to the Core Problem Conundrum
106(2)
Critical Root Cause: A Definition
108(1)
Main Body of the CRT
108(1)
Archetypical CRTs
109(1)
Depicting a Current Reality Tree
109(1)
Entities
109(1)
Entities in a Current Reality Tree
110(1)
Arrows
110(1)
Underlying Assumptions
111(1)
Ellipses, Magnitudinal ANDs, and Exclusive ORs
112(1)
Ellipses
112(1)
Magnitudinal ANDs
113(1)
Exclusive ORs
114(1)
Variations on a Theme
115(1)
Numbering Entities in a Tree
115(3)
The Most Common Logical Errors in a Sufficiency Tree
118(4)
Clarity in the Arrow
118(1)
Don't Induce Confusion
119(1)
Don't Miss Opportunities to Break the Chain of Cause and Effect
119(1)
Cause Insufficiency
120(1)
The Concept of ``Oxygen'' Revisited
121(1)
Entity Existence
122(1)
Reading a Current Reality Tree
122(2)
Negative Reinforcing Loops
124(2)
Reading a Negative Reinforcing Loop
125(1)
How to Construct a Current Reality Tree
126(14)
Gather Materials
127(1)
Define the System to be Modeled
128(1)
Determine the Undesirable Effects
128(1)
Compare Reality with Benchmarks of System Success
129(1)
Create a Starting Matrix
129(1)
Determine the First Two Levels of Causality
130(1)
Transfer UDEs and Causes to Post-it Notes
130(1)
Begin the Current Reality Tree
131(1)
Improve the Logic of the Initial Clusters
131(2)
Identify Possible Additional Causes
133(1)
Two Criteria for Additional Causes
134(1)
Look for Lateral Connections
135(1)
Build the Cause-and-Effect Chains Downward
136(1)
Scrutinize the Entire Current Reality Tree
137(1)
Decide Which Root Causes to Attack
138(2)
Scrutinizing the Current Reality Tree
140(6)
The Categories of Legitimate Reservation
140(1)
Techniques for ``Shortstopping'' Logical Challenges
140(1)
When ``All'' or ``None'' Are Not Acceptable
141(1)
Inclusive and Exclusive
141(1)
Qualifying Words
141(1)
Too Many Arrows?
142(1)
Simple Logical Aid #1: Means, Method, and Motivation
143(1)
Simple Logical Aid #2: The Syllogism
144(2)
Using the CRT with Other Parts of the Thinking Process
146(1)
The Current Reality Tree and the Evaporating Cloud
146(1)
The Current Reality Tree and the Future Reality Tree
146(1)
Summary
147(1)
Figure 4.45: Procedures for Constructing a Current Reality Tree (CRT) - abbreviated checklist
148(4)
Figure 4.46: Current Reality Tree: Fordyce Corporation
152(7)
Evaporating Cloud
159(46)
Definition
160(1)
Purpose
161(1)
Assumptions
161(1)
How to Use This
Chapter
162(1)
Description of the Evaporating Cloud
162(21)
The Nature of Conflict
163(1)
Conflict Is Not Always Obvious
163(1)
Two Types of Conflict
163(1)
Opposite Conditions
163(1)
Different Alternatives
163(1)
Compromise, ``Win-Lose'' or ``Win-Win''?
163(1)
Compromise
164(1)
Win-Lose
164(1)
Win-Win
164(1)
An Indication of Hidden Conflict
164(1)
``Breakthrough Solutions''
164(1)
Elements of the Evaporating Cloud
165(1)
Symbology
165(1)
Objective
166(1)
Requirements
166(2)
Prerequisites
168(1)
How the Evaporating Cloud Relates to the Current Reality Tree
169(2)
Why Do Root Causes of Undesirable Effects Exist?
171(1)
Policies and Constraints
171(1)
Policy Constraints: A Source of Conflict
171(1)
Conflict is Usually Embedded in the CRT
172(1)
Assumptions
172(1)
Invalid Assumptions
172(1)
Some Assumptions Can Be Invalidated
173(2)
``Win-Win'' vs. ``Win-Lose''
175(1)
Five Potential ``Break'' Points
175(1)
Invalid Assumptions: An Example
176(1)
Injections: The Role of Invalid Assumptions
177(1)
How Are Injections Related to Assumptions?
178(2)
Injections: Actions or Conditions?
180(1)
``Silver Bullets''
180(1)
Creating ``Breakthrough'' Ideas to Resolve Conflict
180(1)
All Arrows Are Fair Game
181(1)
Is the Idea Feasible?
182(1)
Reading an Evaporating Cloud
182(1)
Verbalizing Assumptions
182(1)
What to Remember About Evaporating Clouds
183(1)
How to Construct An Evaporating Cloud
184(13)
A Nine-Step Path to Conflict Resolution
184(1)
Construct a Blank Evaporating Cloud
185(1)
Articulate the Conflicting ``Wants'' of Each Side
185(1)
Determine the ``Needs'' of Each Side
186(1)
The ``Easy Way'' to Articulate Requirements
187(1)
Formulate the Objective
188(1)
Why Use an Intermediate Objectives Map?
188(2)
Evaluate the Whole Relationship
190(2)
Develop Underlying Assumptions
192(1)
Extreme Wording
192(2)
Evaluate Assumptions
194(1)
Create Injections
195(1)
Select the Best Injection(s)
195(2)
Scrutinizing An Evaporating Cloud
197(2)
Reflection of Current Reality
197(1)
Perception
198(1)
Figure 5.32: Procedures for Constructing an Evaporating Cloud - abbreviated checklist
199(3)
Figure 5.33: Evaporating Cloud: Master Blank Form
202(1)
Figure 5.34: Evaporating Cloud: Wurtzburg Corporation
203(1)
Summary
204(1)
Future Reality Tree
205(54)
Definition
206(1)
Purpose
207(1)
Assumptions
208(1)
How to Use This
Chapter
208(1)
Description of the Future Reality Tree
209(22)
A Real-World Example
209(1)
A Framework for Change
210(1)
Negative Branches
211(1)
The Positive Reinforcing Loop
211(2)
Future Reality Tree Symbology
213(1)
Injections
214(1)
Injections: Actions or Conditions?
215(1)
The Risk of Actions as Injections
216(1)
Build Upward, from Injections to Desired Effects
216(1)
Example: Building a House
217(1)
Multiple Injections: The ``Silver Bullet'' Fallacy
217(1)
Where Injections Come From
217(2)
The Future Reality Tree and Other Thinking Process Trees
219(1)
The Future Reality Tree and the Current Reality Tree
219(1)
The Logical Structure of Reality, Current and Future
220(1)
The Future Reality Tree and the Evaporating Cloud
221(1)
The Future Reality Tree and the Prerequisite Tree
222(3)
The Future Reality Tree as a ``Safety Net''
225(1)
Negative Branches
225(1)
Using the Negative Branch as a ``Stand-Alone''
225(1)
Added Realities
226(2)
Assumptions
228(1)
``Trimming'' Negative Branches
228(1)
When to Raise Negative Branch Reservations
228(1)
Positive Reinforcing Loops
228(2)
Strategic Planning with a Future Reality Tree
230(1)
How to Construct a Future Reality Tree
231(11)
Gather Necessary Information and Materials
231(1)
Formulate Desired Effects
232(1)
Positive, Not Neutral
232(1)
Use Present Tense
233(1)
Lay Out Desired Effects
233(1)
Add the Injection(s) and Evaporating Cloud Requirements
234(1)
Where Do We Find Injections?
234(1)
Injections at the Bottom
235(1)
Fill in the Gaps
235(1)
Build Upward
235(1)
Continue Building from the Expected Effects
235(2)
Build in Positive Reinforcing Loops
237(1)
Look for Negative Branches
238(2)
Develop Negative Branches
240(1)
Trim Negative Branches
240(1)
Incorporate the ``Branch-Trimming'' Injection into the FRT
241(1)
Scrutinize the Entire FRT
241(1)
Scrutinizing a Future Reality Tree
242(1)
Existence Reservations
242(1)
Additional Cause
242(1)
Scrutinizing Injections
243(1)
``Oxygen''
243(1)
Summary
243(1)
Figure 6.27: Procedures for Constructing a Future Reality Tree
244(4)
Figure 6.28: Using the Negative Branch as a Stand-Alone Tool
248(4)
Figure 6.29: Future Reality Tree Example: Fordyce Corporation
252(7)
PART III - EXECUTING CHANGE
259(80)
Prerequisite and Transition Trees
261(50)
A Consolidation of Two Trees
262(1)
Definition
263(1)
Purpose
264(1)
Assumptions
264(1)
How to Use This
Chapter
265(1)
Description of the Prerequisite Tree
265(14)
Necessity vs. Sufficiency
265(2)
Depicting a Prerequisite Tree
267(1)
The Objective
267(1)
Intermediate Objectives
268(2)
Different Alternatives
270(1)
Not Always a One-to-One Relationship
270(1)
Obstacles
270(1)
Overcome, Not Obliterate
271(1)
Enlist Assistance to Identify Obstacles
272(1)
A Single Tool or Part of a Set
272(1)
Intermediate Objectives: Actions or Conditions?
272(1)
Obstacles: Always Conditions
273(1)
Sequence Dependency
274(1)
Parallelism
274(2)
Reading a Prerequisite Tree
276(1)
Top to Bottom
277(1)
Bottom to Top
278(1)
Building a Prerequisite Tree
279(11)
Determine the Objective
279(1)
Identify All Intermediate Objectives
279(2)
Surface All Possible Obstacles
281(1)
Organize the Intermediate Objectives and Obstacles
281(3)
Sequence the Intermediate Objectives Within Each Branch
284(1)
Connect the Intermediate Objectives
285(1)
Overcome the Obstacles
285(2)
Integrate the Branches
287(2)
Connect the Main Body of the Tree to the Objective
289(1)
Scrutinize the Entire Tree
290(1)
Scrutinizing a Prerequisite Tree
290(4)
Entity Existence
291(1)
Cause Sufficiency
291(1)
Additional Cause
292(1)
The IO-Obstacle Validity Test
292(2)
The Transition Tree
294(6)
A Little History
294(1)
Prerequisite Tree and Transition Tree: Original Concept
295(2)
Transition Tree Structure
297(2)
The Five-Element Transition Tree
299(1)
In Search of Robust Execution
300(2)
Managing Change as a Project
300(1)
Critical Chain Project Management
300(1)
What Critical Chain Project Management Does
300(1)
What Critical Chain Project Management Requires
301(1)
A Three-Phase Change Management Framework
301(1)
Summary
302(2)
Figure 7.31: Procedures for Constructing a Prerequisite Tree
304(3)
Figure 7.32: Prerequisite Tree Self-Scrutiny Checklist
307(1)
Figure 7.33: Prerequisite Tree: Conference Planning and Management
308(3)
Changing the Status Quo
311(28)
Purpose
312(1)
Assumptions
312(1)
How to Use This
Chapter
313(1)
The Key to System Improvement
313(2)
The Elements of System Improvement
314(1)
Reinforcement
315(1)
Human Behavior
315(7)
Active Resistance
315(1)
Passive Resistance
316(1)
Is Behavior Logical?
316(1)
Changing Minds, or Changing Behavior?
316(1)
Why Do People Resist Change?
317(1)
Maslow
317(1)
Herzberg
318(1)
McClelland
318(1)
Adams
318(1)
Anaclitic Depression Blues
319(1)
Security or Satisfaction?
320(1)
The Impact on Solutions
320(2)
Leadership
322(3)
Leadership Is About People
322(1)
Leadership and the Blitzkrieg
323(1)
Mutual Trust
323(1)
Personal Professional Skill
323(1)
Moral Contract
324(1)
Focus
324(1)
Level 5 Leadership
325(1)
Leadership and Behavior
325(3)
The Leader's Behavior
327(1)
Subordinates' Behavior
328(1)
Creating and Sustaining Desired Behaviors
328(3)
Behavior Change is a Leadership Function
329(1)
A Behavioral Approach to Change
329(1)
Rewards or Reinforcement?
330(1)
A General Strategy for Implementing Change
331(6)
A Common Scenario
331(1)
Assumptions
331
How Change ``Gets In''
323(1)
The Leader as Change Agent-in-Chief
323(10)
A Model for Implementing Change
333(2)
Leader Commitment
335(1)
Modified Behavior Defined
335(1)
Mission/Task Charter Communicated
335(1)
Leader Commitment Demonstrated
336(1)
Subordinate Commitment
336(1)
Performance Management Process
336(1)
A List Thought about Ensuring Effective Change
336(1)
Summary
337(2)
Epilogue
339(58)
Appendices
Appendix A: Strategic Intermediate Objectives Map
341(2)
Appendix B: Executive Summary Trees
343(13)
Appendix C: Current Reality Tree Exercise
356(1)
Appendix D: Evaporating Cloud Exercise
357(2)
Appendix E: The 3-UDE Cloud
359(10)
Appendix F: The Challenger Conflict
369(7)
Appendix G: Correlation Versus Cause and Effect
376(1)
Appendix H: Theories of Motivation
377(5)
Appendix I: Legal Application of the Thinking Process
382(12)
Appendix J: Transformation Logic Tree Software
394(3)
Glossary of Thinking Process Terms 397(4)
Bibliography 401(4)
Index 405