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E-raamat: Microeconometric Evaluation of Labour Market Policies

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Microeconometric Evaluation of Labour Market PoliciesSuurem pilt
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This study was accepted as a doctoral thesis by the Department of E- nomics of the Johann Wolfgang Goethe-University in Frankfurt/Main. It was undertaken within the research project 'The E ects of Job Creation and Structural Adjustment Schemes on the Participating Individuals', which was conducted by the Institute of Statistics and Econometrics (Empirical E- nomic Research) in cooperation with the Institute for Employment Research in Nuremberg. I have to thank numerous people. First of all my thesis supervisor, Prof. Dr. Reinhard Hujer, for initiating this thesis and providing me with a great scienti c environment. I owe the data I used to his persistent lobbying to promote and anchor evaluation research in Germany. I am also very grateful to Prof. Dr. Roland Eisen who did not hesitate to act as the second thesis supervisor. Thanks also to Christian Brinkmann and his team at the Institute for Employment Research (Institut fur .. Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung) for valuable help with the datasets. Ihavealsobene tedfromcontinualdiscussionswithmycolleaguesStephan L.(!)Thomsen,DubravkoRadic,PauloRodrigues,SandraVuleticandChris- pher Zeiss. A warm thanks goes also to Birgit Kreiner and all our current and former student research assistants.
Abbreviations XIII
Symbols XV
Introduction 1(8)
Part I Microeconometric Evaluation Methods
1 Introduction in Programme Evaluation
9(34)
1.1 Introduction
9(2)
1.2 The Evaluation Framework
11(6)
1.2.1 Potential Outcome Approach and the Fundamental Evaluation Problem
11(2)
1.2.2 Parameters of Interest and Selection Bias
13(2)
1.2.3 Linking the Potential-Outcome-Framework to Textbook Econometrics
15(1)
1.2.4 Homogeneous vs. Heterogeneous Treatment Effects
16(1)
1.3 How Do Randomised Experiments Solve the Evaluation Problem?
17(2)
1.3.1 Possible Problems with Randomised Experiments
18(1)
1.4 Evaluation Estimators
19(11)
1.4.1 Three Commonly Used Evaluation Estimators
21(4)
1.4.2 Alternative Evaluation Estimators
25(5)
1.5 The Principle of linconfoundedness
30(8)
1.5.1 The Basic Idea of Matching Under Unconfoundedness
30(2)
1.5.2 How Does Matching Solve the Selection Problem'?
32(1)
1.5.3 Redefining Selection Bias
33(2)
1.5.4 How Do Matching and Regression Under Unconfoundedness Differ?
35(3)
1.6 Summary - Which Estimator to Choose?
38(5)
2 The Evaluation of Policy Interventions with Matching Estimators
43(28)
2.1 Introduction
43(2)
2.2 The Balancing Property of the Propensity Score
45(1)
2.3 Alternative Matching Estimators
46(8)
2.3.1 Nearest-Neighbour-Matching
47(1)
2.3.2 Caliper and Radius Matching
48(1)
2.3.3 Stratification and Interval Matching
49(1)
2.3.4 Kernel and Local Polynomial Matching
50(3)
2.3.5 Weighting on the Propensity Score
53(1)
2.4 Matching on Covariates
54(2)
2.4.1 Simple Matching Estimator
55(1)
2.5 Combination of Matching with Other Methods
56(3)
2.5.1 Conditional DID or DID Matching Estimator
57(1)
2.5.2 Regression-Adjusted Matching Estimators
58(1)
2.5.3 Bias-Corrected Matching Estimator
58(1)
2.6 Efficiency and Large-Sample Properties of Matching Estimators
59(6)
2.6.1 Estimating the Variance for Treatment Effects
62(3)
2.7 Which Matching Estimator to Choose?
65(6)
3 Some Practical Guidance for the implementation of Propensity Score Matching Estimators
71(28)
3.1 Introduction
71(2)
3.2 The Implementation of Matching Estimators
73(11)
3.2.1 Estimating the Propensity Score
73(5)
3.2.2 Assessing the Matching Quality
78(2)
3.2.3 Overlap and Common Support
80(3)
3.2.4 Choice-Based Sampling
83(1)
3.2.5 When to Compare and Locking-in Effects
83(1)
3.3 Sensitivity Analysis with Rosenbaum Bounds
84(3)
3.4 More Practical Issues
87(6)
3.4.1 Programme Heterogeneity
87(2)
3.4.2 Sequential Matching Estimators
89(2)
3.4.3 Choosing the Right Control Group - Random Programme Starts
91(2)
3.5 Conclusion
93(6)
Part II The Evaluation of Job Creation Schemes in Germany
4 The German Labour Market and Active Labour Market Policies - A Brief Overview
99(28)
4.1 Introduction
99(2)
4.2 Institutional Setup and Instruments
101(12)
4.2.1 The German Labour Market - Some Stylised Facts
101(2)
4.2.2 Labour Market Policies
103(8)
4.2.3 Job Creation Schemes
111(2)
4.3 Previous Empirical Studies
113(6)
4.3.1 Microeconometric Evaluations of Job Creation Schemes
113(2)
4.3.2 Macroeconomic Evaluations
115(4)
4.4 Dataset Used in our Analysis
119(5)
4.5 Outline of the Empirical Analysis
124(3)
5 Microeconometric Evaluation of Job Creation Schemes - Part I: Individual and Regional Heterogeneity
127(34)
5.1 Introduction
127(2)
5.2 Groups of Analysis and Selected Descriptives
129(5)
5.2.1 Groups of Analysis
129(2)
5.2.2 Selected Descriptives for the Four Main Groups
131(2)
5.2.3 Selected Descriptives for the Regional Clusters
133(1)
5.3 Implementation of the Matching Estimator
134(13)
5.3.1 Plausibility of CIA
134(1)
5.3.2 Estimating the Propensity Score
135(3)
5.3.3 Choosing the Matching Algorithm
138(3)
5.3.4 Common Support
141(2)
5.3.5 Matching Quality
143(4)
5.4 Results
147(11)
5.4.1 Results for the Main Groups
148(1)
5.4.2 Results for the Selected Sub-Groups
149(6)
5.4.3 Results for the Regional Clusters
155(1)
5.4.4 Sensitivity of the Results to Unobserved Heterogeneity
156(2)
5.5 Conclusion
158(3)
6 Microeconometric Evaluation of Job Creation Schemes - Part II: Progranune Heterogeneity
161(22)
6.1 Introduction
161(1)
6.2 Groups of Analysis and Selected Descriptives
162(6)
6.2.1 Groups of Analysis
162(4)
6.2.2 Selected Descriptives
166(2)
6.3 Implementation of the Propensity Score Matching
168(4)
6.3.1 Propensity Score Estimation
168(2)
6.3.2 Matching Quality and Common Support
170(2)
6.4 Results
172(9)
6.4.1 Results for the Five Sectors
173(2)
6.4.2 Results for the Sectors and Types of Promotion
175(3)
6.4.3 Results for the Sectors and Providers
178(3)
6.5 Conclusions
181(2)
7 Conclusions and Outlook
183(6)
A Additional Material to
Chapter 4		 189(4)
B Additional Material to
Chapter 5		 193(26)
C Additional Material to
Chapter 6		 219(20)
List of Tables 239(4)
List of Figures 243(2)
References 245


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