Preface |
|
xiii | |
About the Authors |
|
xv | |
1 An Introduction to the Multi-Asset Investment Problem |
|
1 | (8) |
|
1.1 What is Multi-Asset Investing? |
|
|
2 | (2) |
|
1.2 The Conventional Structure |
|
|
4 | (1) |
|
1.3 Transitioning from Active Management to Exposure Allocation |
|
|
4 | (1) |
|
1.4 Creating an Improved Allocation Structure |
|
|
5 | (1) |
|
1.5 Constructing a Multi-Asset Portfolio to Manage Tail Risks |
|
|
6 | (1) |
|
1.6 Multi-Asset Investing in Emerging Markets |
|
|
6 | (1) |
|
1.7 From Multi-Asset Strategies to Multi-Asset Solutions |
|
|
7 | (1) |
|
1.8 Structuring a Multi-Asset Business |
|
|
7 | (2) |
2 The Traditional Allocation Structure |
|
9 | (16) |
|
2.1 The Traditional Investment Process |
|
|
10 | (2) |
|
2.2 The Asset Allocation Process |
|
|
12 | (1) |
|
2.3 The Belief in Diversification |
|
|
13 | (6) |
|
2.4 Harnessing Equity Risk Premium and the Investment Horizon |
|
|
19 | (1) |
|
2.5 Asset Classes as Mutually Exclusive Silos |
|
|
20 | (1) |
|
2.6 Organization Structure and Resource Allocation |
|
|
20 | (1) |
|
2.7 Implications for Skill Required in Asset Allocation |
|
|
21 | (1) |
|
2.8 Requirements for a Revised Allocation Solution |
|
|
22 | (1) |
|
2.9 Parallel Debates Created in the Search for a Revised Allocation Solution |
|
|
23 | (2) |
3 Transitioning from Active Management to Exposure Allocation |
|
25 | (14) |
|
3.1 A Historic Rationalization of Alpha and Beta |
|
|
26 | (1) |
|
3.2 Progression of Active Management |
|
|
27 | (1) |
|
3.3 Generalizing the Beta Concept |
|
|
27 | (1) |
|
3.4 The Demise of Asset Class Demarcated Allocation |
|
|
28 | (1) |
|
3.5 Implications for the Active Investment Process |
|
|
29 | (1) |
|
3.6 Investment Strategy Categorization |
|
|
30 | (1) |
|
3.6.1 Fundamental, Quantitative and Technical |
|
|
30 | (1) |
|
3.6.2 Top-down, Bottom-up and Relative Value |
|
|
31 | (1) |
|
3.7 Positioning of Alternative Investments |
|
|
31 | (1) |
|
3.8 Obsolescence of Portable Alpha |
|
|
32 | (1) |
|
3.9 Positioning of Fundamental Indexation and Smart Beta |
|
|
32 | (1) |
|
3.10 Risk in an Exposure-Based Framework |
|
|
33 | (1) |
|
3.11 Horizon-Based Organizational Demarcation |
|
|
34 | (1) |
|
3.12 Transition from an Asset-Based to an Exposure-Based Organization |
|
|
34 | (3) |
|
|
37 | (2) |
4 Redefining Risk Premium for Multi-Asset Allocation Decisions |
|
39 | (14) |
|
4.1 Incumbent Risk and Risk Premium Frameworks |
|
|
40 | (1) |
|
4.2 Framework for the Concurrent Presence of All Asset Classes |
|
|
41 | (1) |
|
4.3 Incorporating Intra-Horizon Risk |
|
|
42 | (1) |
|
4.4 Risk and Return Premium for Allocation Silos |
|
|
43 | (2) |
|
4.5 Asset Class Premiums - Comparison of Traditional and Proposed Methods |
|
|
45 | (1) |
|
4.6 Asset Class Premiums - Impact of Different Investment Horizons |
|
|
46 | (1) |
|
4.7 Asset Class Risk - Comparison of Traditional and Proposed Methods |
|
|
47 | (1) |
|
4.8 Asset Class Risk - Impact of Different Investment Horizons |
|
|
48 | (1) |
|
4.9 Sovereign Risk and Risk Premium |
|
|
49 | (2) |
|
4.10 Application to Various Multi-Asset Investment Problem Scenarios |
|
|
51 | (1) |
|
|
52 | (1) |
5 A Multi-Strategy Allocation Structure |
|
53 | (14) |
|
5.1 Categories of Allocation Approaches |
|
|
54 | (4) |
|
5.2 A Multi-Strategy Framework for the Allocation Problem |
|
|
58 | (1) |
|
5.3 The Benefits of Strategy Diversification |
|
|
59 | (2) |
|
5.4 Individual Allocation Methodology Requirements |
|
|
61 | (2) |
|
5.5 Example of a Multi-Strategy Allocation Approach |
|
|
63 | (3) |
|
|
66 | (1) |
6 A Fundamental Exposure Allocation Approach-Business Cycles |
|
67 | (10) |
|
6.1 The Passive Economic Model |
|
|
67 | (1) |
|
6.2 An Active Economic Approach |
|
|
68 | (1) |
|
6.3 A Five Cycle Asset Allocation Approach |
|
|
69 | (4) |
|
6.3.1 Cycle I -The Global Business Cycle |
|
|
69 | (1) |
|
6.3.2 Cycle II - The Local Business Cycle |
|
|
70 | (1) |
|
6.3.3 Cycle III - The Monetary Cycle |
|
|
71 | (2) |
|
6.3.4 Cycle IV - The Credit and Capex Cycles |
|
|
73 | (1) |
|
6.3.5 Cycle V - Market Cycle |
|
|
73 | (1) |
|
6.4 Cycle Limiting Risk Parameters |
|
|
73 | (1) |
|
6.5 Segregating the Core and Cyclical Components |
|
|
74 | (1) |
|
6.6 The Composite Five Cycle Framework |
|
|
75 | (2) |
7 A Systematic Exposure Allocation Process - Active Risk Budgeting |
|
77 | (20) |
|
7.1 Modeling the Business Cycle |
|
|
78 | (2) |
|
7.2 Modeling the Monetary Cycle |
|
|
80 | (1) |
|
7.3 Risk Adjustment for Equity Valuation |
|
|
81 | (1) |
|
7.4 Creating an Adjusted Risk Budgeting Allocation Methodology |
|
|
82 | (3) |
|
7.5 Simulated Performance Results |
|
|
85 | (5) |
|
7.6 Confirming Robustness of ARB Allocation Methodology |
|
|
90 | (4) |
|
7.6.1 Performance in Different Time Periods |
|
|
90 | (1) |
|
7.6.2 Performance in Different Market Conditions |
|
|
90 | (4) |
|
7.7 Implementation of a Drawdown Management Process |
|
|
94 | (3) |
8 Estimation of Asset Allocation |
|
97 | (10) |
|
8.1 The Consensus Asset Allocation Dataset |
|
|
97 | (1) |
|
8.2 Using Consensus Data for Allocation Decisions |
|
|
98 | (9) |
|
8.2.1 Basic Allocation Decisions |
|
|
98 | (1) |
|
8.2.2 Creating Tactical Allocation Changes |
|
|
99 | (3) |
|
8.2.3 Conviction Level in Allocation Stances |
|
|
102 | (1) |
|
8.2.4 Currency Hedge Ratio Decisions |
|
|
103 | (2) |
|
8.2.5 Separating the Poor Forecasters from the Accurate Ones |
|
|
105 | (1) |
|
8.2.6 Contrasting the Variety of Allocation Methodologies |
|
|
105 | (2) |
9 Optimization for Multi-Asset Portfolios |
|
107 | (26) |
|
9.1 Evolution of the Mean Variance Framework |
|
|
107 | (2) |
|
9.2 Portfolio Allocation and Measures of Performance |
|
|
109 | (1) |
|
9.3 A Utility-Based Approach |
|
|
110 | (1) |
|
9.4 The Fund Manager's Objectives |
|
|
110 | (2) |
|
9.5 The Efficient Frontier |
|
|
112 | (1) |
|
9.6 Optimal Portfolio Choice |
|
|
113 | (1) |
|
9.7 Incorporating the Constraints |
|
|
114 | (1) |
|
|
115 | (1) |
|
|
115 | (1) |
|
|
116 | (1) |
|
|
116 | (1) |
|
|
117 | (1) |
|
9.13 Formulation of the Optimization Problem |
|
|
118 | (1) |
|
9.14 The Unconstrained Allocation |
|
|
119 | (2) |
|
9.15 Applying the Constraints |
|
|
121 | (6) |
|
9.16 The Preferred Portfolio |
|
|
127 | (3) |
|
|
130 | (3) |
10 Managing Tail Risk in Multi-Asset Portfolios |
|
133 | (22) |
|
10.1 Portfolio Management - The Practical Setting |
|
|
134 | (1) |
|
10.2 Asset Allocation - The Practical Setting |
|
|
134 | (1) |
|
10.3 Creating a Real Risk Measure: End-of-Horizon vs. Intra-Horizon Risk |
|
|
135 | (4) |
|
|
139 | (4) |
|
|
143 | (7) |
|
10.6 Implementing Tail Risk Management |
|
|
150 | (3) |
|
10.7 Notation and Variables |
|
|
153 | (2) |
11 Multi-Asset Investing in Emerging Markets |
|
155 | (14) |
|
11.1 Observation 1: Sub-Optimal Geographic Categorization of Emerging Markets |
|
|
155 | (1) |
|
11.2 Observation 2: Inappropriate Sector Classification for Emerging Markets |
|
|
156 | (2) |
|
11.3 Observation 3: Stock Concentration in Equity Indices |
|
|
158 | (1) |
|
11.4 Observation 4: The Potential for Active Management |
|
|
159 | (1) |
|
11.5 Observation 5: Performance of Active Managers |
|
|
159 | (3) |
|
11.6 Observation 6: Over-Dependence on a Single Investment Decision |
|
|
162 | (1) |
|
11.7 Summary of Observations |
|
|
162 | (1) |
|
11.8 Pitfalls in Emerging Market Investment Frameworks |
|
|
163 | (1) |
|
11.9 An Improved Framework for Emerging Market Investments |
|
|
164 | (5) |
12 The Importance of Asset Allocation in Asian Equities |
|
169 | (10) |
|
12.1 Impact of Breadth on Portfolio Excess Return |
|
|
169 | (1) |
|
12.2 Impact of Varying Cross-Sectional Dispersion on Portfolio Excess Return |
|
|
170 | (2) |
|
12.3 The Relative Importance of Asset Allocation and Stock Selection |
|
|
172 | (1) |
|
12.4 Comparing the US and Asian Equity Investment Universe |
|
|
173 | (3) |
|
|
176 | (3) |
13 Implementing a Multi-Asset Strategy-Active or Passive |
|
179 | (6) |
|
13.1 Investment Determinants for the Active-Passive Decision |
|
|
179 | (5) |
|
13.2 Asset Owner Constraints Impacting the Active-Passive Decision |
|
|
184 | (1) |
14 An Exposure-Based Risk Diagnostics Framework |
|
185 | (10) |
|
14.1 Shortcomings of a Traditional Risk Analysis Approach |
|
|
185 | (1) |
|
14.2 Evaluating Intended and Unintended Risk |
|
|
186 | (1) |
|
14.3 A Multi-Dimensional Risk Architecture |
|
|
187 | (8) |
|
|
188 | (1) |
|
14.3.2 Investment Process Component Analysis |
|
|
189 | (1) |
|
14.3.3 Regime Risk Analysis |
|
|
189 | (1) |
|
14.3.4 Style and Factor Risk Analysis |
|
|
190 | (1) |
|
14.3.5 Macro Risk Analysis |
|
|
190 | (1) |
|
14.3.6 Stress Event Risk Analysis |
|
|
191 | (1) |
|
14.3.7 Peer Group Comparison Analysis |
|
|
192 | (3) |
15 Impact of Manager Compensation on Allocation Decisions |
|
195 | (16) |
|
15.1 Compensation Structure |
|
|
196 | (1) |
|
15.2 Managerial Constraints |
|
|
197 | (2) |
|
|
198 | (1) |
|
15.2.2 Managerial Risk Preferences |
|
|
198 | (1) |
|
|
199 | (3) |
|
15.4 The Distribution of Performance |
|
|
202 | (1) |
|
15.5 The Importance of Skill |
|
|
203 | (2) |
|
|
205 | (1) |
|
15.7 Implications for a Multi-Period Setting |
|
|
206 | (2) |
|
15.7.1 Compensation Structure |
|
|
206 | (1) |
|
15.7.2 The Distribution of Performance |
|
|
206 | (2) |
|
15.8 Examples of Managerial Contracts |
|
|
208 | (1) |
|
|
209 | (2) |
16 From Multi-Asset Strategies to Multi-Asset Solutions |
|
211 | (10) |
|
16.1 Current Phase of Industry Transition |
|
|
213 | (1) |
|
16.2 Multi-Asset Solutions as an Industry Function |
|
|
214 | (1) |
|
16.3 Characteristics of a Multi-Asset Solution Provider |
|
|
215 | (1) |
|
16.4 Customization Parameters for an Investment Solution |
|
|
215 | (4) |
|
16.5 Requirements for a Standardized Implementation |
|
|
219 | (1) |
|
16.6 The Importance of Attributing Performance |
|
|
219 | (1) |
|
|
220 | (1) |
17 Multi-Asset Investing for Private Wealth Assets |
|
221 | (12) |
|
17.1 The Private Wealth Multi-Asset Investment Problem |
|
|
221 | (3) |
|
17.2 Business Model and Organizational Issues |
|
|
224 | (2) |
|
17.3 Incumbent Investment Frameworks |
|
|
226 | (1) |
|
17.4 A Multi-Asset Private Wealth Investment Platform |
|
|
227 | (1) |
|
17.5 Goals-Based Allocation |
|
|
228 | (2) |
|
17.6 Implication for the Long-Only Active Manager |
|
|
230 | (1) |
|
|
230 | (3) |
18 Structuring a Multi-Asset Investing Business |
|
233 | (12) |
|
18.1 Product Structure and Positioning |
|
|
233 | (2) |
|
18.2 Product Advantages and Disadvantages |
|
|
235 | (1) |
|
18.3 Product Investment Skills |
|
|
236 | (1) |
|
18.4 Target Client Segmentation |
|
|
237 | (1) |
|
18.5 Where Did Existing Products Fall Short? |
|
|
238 | (4) |
|
18.6 Client Segment - Expectations and Evaluation |
|
|
242 | (3) |
19 Competing for Better Institutional Investment Outcomes |
|
245 | (20) |
|
19.1 Mission and Beliefs - The First and Most Critical Step |
|
|
246 | (2) |
|
19.2 Frameworks: Traditional Asset Class Versus Risk Premium |
|
|
248 | (2) |
|
19.3 Linking Beliefs With Return Drivers and Portfolio Construction Decisions |
|
|
250 | (6) |
|
|
252 | (1) |
|
19.3.2 A Wider Opportunity Set for Exploiting Alpha |
|
|
253 | (2) |
|
19.3.3 Ensuring That Everything Is Consistent with Beliefs |
|
|
255 | (1) |
|
19.4 Governance Consideration |
|
|
256 | (3) |
|
19.4.1 Closing the Governance Gap: Build or Buy |
|
|
256 | (1) |
|
19.4.2 The Separation of Governing and Executive Functions |
|
|
257 | (2) |
|
19.5 Choosing an Implementation Route for Delegation |
|
|
259 | (3) |
|
19.5.1 Bundling Multiple Investment Strategies into Pooled Funds |
|
|
259 | (1) |
|
19.5.2 Fully Bespoke Implementation |
|
|
260 | (2) |
|
|
262 | (1) |
|
|
263 | (2) |
Bibliography and References |
|
265 | (4) |
Index |
|
269 | |