This open access volume surveys the state of the field to examine whether a fifth wave of deterrence theory is emerging. Bringing together insights from world-leading experts from three continents, the volume identifies the most pressing strategic challenges, frames theoretical concepts, and describes new strategies.
The use and utility of deterrence in today’s strategic environment is a topic of paramount concern to scholars, strategists and policymakers. Ours is a period of considerable strategic turbulence, which in recent years has featured a renewed emphasis on nuclear weapons used in defence postures across different theatres; a dramatic growth in the scale of military cyber capabilities and the frequency with which these are used; and rapid technological progress including the proliferation of long-range strike and unmanned systems. These military-strategic developments occur in a polarized international system, where cooperation between leading powers on arms control regimes is breaking down, states widely make use of hybrid conflict strategies, and the number of internationalized intrastate proxy conflicts has quintupled over the past two decades. Contemporary conflict actors exploit a wider gamut of coercive instruments, which they apply across a wider range of domains. The prevalence of multi-domain coercion across but also beyond traditional dimensions of armed conflict raises an important question: what does effective deterrence look like in the 21st century? Answering that question requires a re-appraisal of key theoretical concepts and dominant strategies of Western and non-Western actors in order to assess how they hold up in today’s world.
Air Commodore Professor Dr. Frans Osinga is the Chair of the War Studies Department of the Netherlands Defence Academy and the Special Chair in War Studies at the University Leiden. Dr. Tim Sweijs is the Director of Research at The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies and a Research Fellow at the Faculty of Military Sciences of the Netherlands Defence Academy in Breda.
Chapter
1. Introduction.- Part I. Concepts of Deterrence (Evolution,
Rediscovery, Conventional, Nuclear, Cross-domain).
Chapter
2. Understanding
Deterrence.
Chapter
3. Deterrence Rediscovered: NATO and Russia.
Chapter
4.
The Continuing Relevance of Conventional Deterrence.
Chapter
5. Nuclear
Deterrence: A Guarantee for or Threat to Strategic Stability?.
Chapter
6.
The US and Extended Deterrence.
Chapter
7. Deterrence by Punishment or
Denial: The EFP Case.
Chapter
8. The Essence of Cross-domain Deterrence.-
Part II. Non-Western Concepts of Deterrence.
Chapter
9. Deterrence à la
Ruse: Its Uniqueness, Sources and Implications.
Chapter
10. An Overview of
Chinese Thinking about Characteristics of Deterrence.
Chapter
11. Japanese
Concepts of Deterrence.
Chapter
12. Deterrence (In)stability between India
and Pakistan.
Chapter
13. Irans Syria Strategy.
Chapter
14. The Evolution
of Deterrence.- Part III. Deterrence of Non-State Actors.
Chapter
15.
Deterring Violent Non-State Actors.
Chapter
16. All Deterrence is Local: The
Utility and Application of Localised Deterrence in Counterinsurgency.-
Chapter
17. This has triggered a civil war: Russian Deterrence of
Democratic Revolts.
Chapter
18. Deterrence in Peace Operations.- Part IV.-
New Instruments and Domains of Deterrence.
Chapter
19. Sanctions and
Deterrence: Targeted Sanctions.
Chapter
20. Deterrence, Resilience and the
Shooting Down of Flight MH17.
Chapter
21. Cyber Deterrence: The Past,
Present, and Future.
Chapter
22. New Technologies and Deterrence: Artificial
Intelligence and Adversarial Behaviour.- Part V Rationality, Psychology and
Emotions.
Chapter
23. Nuclear Deterrence in the Algorithmic Age: Game Theory
Revisited.
Chapter
24. Whats on the Human Mind? Decision Theory and
Deterrence.
Chapter
25. Deterrence: A Continuation of Emotional Life with
the Admixture of Violent Means.
Chapter
26. The Missing Component in
Deterrence Theory: The Legal Framework.- Conclusion: Insights fromTheory and
Practice.
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