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E-raamat: Point Process Theory and Applications: Marked Point and Piecewise Deterministic Processes

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This text offers a mathematically rigorous exposition of the basic theory of marked point processes developing randomly over time, and shows how this theory may be used to treat piecewise deterministic stochastic processes in continuous time. The point processes are constructed from scratch with detailed proofs. The second part of the book addresses applications of the just developed theory; this analysis of various models in applied statistics and probability includes examples and exercises. Graduate students and researchers will find this text an excellent resource, requiring for mastery a solid foundation in probability theory, measure and integration, as well as some knowledge of stochastic processes and martingales. However, the material is presented so as to be accessible to a wider cross-disciplinary audience.

This text offers a mathematically rigorous exposition of the basic theory of marked point processes developing randomly over time, and shows how this theory may be used to treat piecewise deterministic stochastic processes in continuous time.The focus is on point processes that generate only finitely many points in finite time intervals, resulting in piecewise deterministic processes with "few jumps". The point processes are constructed from scratch with detailed proofs and their distributions characterized using compensating measures and martingale structures. Piecewise deterministic processes are defined and identified with certain marked point processes, which are then used in particular to construct and study a large class of piecewise deterministic Markov processes, whether time homogeneous or not.The second part of the book addresses applications of the just developed theory. This analysis of various models in applied statistics and probability includes examples and exercises in survival analysis, branching processes, ruin probabilities, sports (soccer), finance and risk management (arbitrage and portfolio trading strategies), and queueing theory.Graduate students and researchers interested in probabilistic modeling and its applications will find this text an excellent resource, requiring for mastery a solid foundation in probability theory, measure and integration, as well as some knowledge of stochastic processes and martingales. However, an explanatory introduction to each chapter highlights those portions that are crucial and those that can be omitted by non-specialists, making the material more accessible to a wider cross-disciplinary audience.

Arvustused

From the reviews:



"The most remarkable aspect of the book is the reader-friendly structure and the style in which it has been written. The importance of the book both from the practical and from the theoretical standpoint is unquestionable. This book will be an essential part of every mathematical library."   ZENTRALBLATT Math



"This book consists of three parts: (I) Theory, (II) Applications and (III) Appendices, that concisely summarize necessary mathematical concepts which are often found scattered among numerous texts. The most remarkable aspect of the book is its reader-friendly structure and the style in which it has been written. The importance of this book, both from the practical and from the theoretical standpoint, is unquestionable. It will be an essential part of every mathematical library." (V. K. Oganyan, Mathematical Reviews, Issue 2007 a)



"This book deals with marked point processes on the positive real axis. It is rigorously written and largely self-contained. Each chapter starts with an appealing introduction, including hints to the most important references. The reader is guided by clearly stated comments and hints. Many examples and exercises are given . This book is suitable for advanced graduate and postgraduate students in mathematics with some preknowledge in this area. It will also be valuable for preparing a respective lecture course." (Martin Schlather, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 102 (479), 2007)



"The book will serve as a guide to the comprehensive study of the subject, andmore likelyas a reference book, inevitably a standard one. Martin Jacobsen write an accessible book is a true gift to the mathematics community. This is a good book, and an important one. Every researcher with even a passing interest in the subject will want this book on his or her shelf." (Philip Protter, SIAM Review, Vol. 49 (1), 2007)

Preface ix
Part I Theory
Introduction
3(6)
Overview
3(2)
Conditional expectations and probabilities
5(4)
Simple and Marked Point Processes
9(8)
The definition of SPPs and MPPs
9(2)
Counting processes and counting measures
11(6)
Construction of SPPs and MPPs
17(16)
Creating SPPs
17(4)
Creating MPPs
21(4)
From MPPs to PDPs
25(8)
Compensators and Martingales
33(70)
Hazard measures
33(8)
Adapted and predictable processes
41(9)
Compensators and compensating measures
50(13)
Intensity processes
63(5)
The basic martingales
68(9)
Stochastic integrals and martingales
77(8)
Ito's formula for MPPs
85(9)
Compensators and filtrations
94(9)
Likelihood Processes
103(16)
The structure of the likelihood
103(7)
Constructing RCMs from martingales
110(9)
Independence
119(24)
Independent point processes
119(4)
Independent increments, Levy processes
123(20)
PDMPs
143(74)
Markov processes
143(3)
Markov chains
146(6)
Construction and basic properties of PDMPs
152(11)
Examples of PDMPs
163(4)
Renewal processes
163(2)
Processes derived from homogeneous Poisson measures
165(1)
A PDMP that solves an SDE
165(2)
The strong Markov property
167(3)
Ito's formula for homogeneous PDMPs
170(7)
The full infinitesimal generator
177(7)
Stationarity
184(19)
Likelihood processes for PDMPs
203(14)
Part II Applications
Survival Analysis
217(14)
Independent survival times, right-censoring
217(8)
The Cox regression model
225(6)
Branching, Ruin, Soccer
231(16)
A branching process
231(4)
Ruin probabilities
235(8)
The soccer model
243(4)
A Model from Finance
247(30)
The model
247(4)
Portfolios and self-financing strategies
251(6)
Arbitrage and martingale measures
257(10)
Contingent claims and pricing
267(10)
Examples of Queueing Models
277(32)
The GI/G/1 queue
277(10)
Network models
287(10)
Part III Appendices
A. Differentiation of Cadlag Functions
297(4)
B. Filtrations, Processes, Martingales
301(8)
Bibliographical Notes 309(6)
References 315(6)
Notation Index 321(4)
Index 325