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E-raamat: Progress through Regression: The Life Story of the Empirical Cobb-Douglas Production Function

(Michigan State University)
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"At the 1927 meetings of the American Economic Association, Paul Douglas presented a paper entitled "A Theory of Production", which he had coauthored with Charles Cobb. The paper proposed the now familiar Cobb-Douglas function as a general mathematical representation of the relationship between the amounts of capital and labor employed in the US manufacturing sector and the quantity of output produced by that sector. The paper's innovation, however, was not the function itself, as this functional form had been previously proposed by Knut Wicksell and others; but the use of the function as the basis of a statistical procedure for estimating the parameters of this relationship. It is this procedure, a linear regression of the log of a measure of the outputof some production activity on the logs of measures of inputs used in the activity, that I call in this book "the Cobb-Douglas regression". In a broader sense, the paper's innovation was the idea motivating and underlying the particular linear regressionused by Cobb and Douglas: that a stable, quantifiable relationship between the inputs to and outputs of production processes existed and could be discovered through regression analysis, and that knowledge of this relationship would help to answer important questions of economic theory and policy"--

Arvustused

'The Cobb-Douglas production function is the workhorse of modern economic theory. Debates regarding models that are built upon it go on all the time, yet seldom focus on Cobb-Douglas itself. Yet there were early debates about it, some of which could have lead in interesting directions. But the diffusion of the Cobb-Douglass function, especially in practical applications where it allowed attention to focus on what both theorists and applied scholars considered important, helped it to slide by any difficulties. Biddle's protagonist is a worthy subject of study, opening our eyes to how modern economics actually works.' Ross B. Emmett, Arizona State University 'The history of economics has typically been a tale of ideas, ideologies, or economists. But tools have lives of their own. In a highly valuable contribution to understanding the practices of empirical economics, Jeff Biddle told the life story of one of the most productive tools in the economist's workshop the Cobb-Douglas production function. This book should interest not only the historian of economics, but every empirical economist as well.' Kevin Hoover, Duke University 'If the history of twentieth century economics is better characterized, not as a history of economic ideas, but as a history of tools and techniques which I believe it should be then Biddle's history of the Cobb-Douglas production function is a highly relevant contribution. By taking on one of the most central tools of twentieth century economics, this book helps us gain a better understanding of how economics became an engineering science. Biddle's focus on a broadly used tool gives a much more realistic history of modern economics.' Marcel Boumans, Utrecht University 'The history of applied economics and applied econometrics has not received as much attention as it deserves. This new book, which focuses on the history of an extremely widely used function, is a welcome addition to the literature, introducing us to episodes that deserve to be better known. The notion that economists welcomed the function, despite its flaws, because they wanted to believe it is fascinating.' Roger Backhouse, Birmingham Business School ' illustrates the usefulness of the biography of a scientific object to tell a history that expands beyond any single person or group a commendable history that such an important technique deserves.' Matthew T. Panhans, The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought 'Biddle's essay is a first-class historical account of a fascinating story. He does not make the case for or against the Cobb-Douglas function of production. By uncovering and explaining so clearly the difficulties and limitations, as well as the successes of the Cobb-Douglas regression, Progress through Regression is indispensable reading.' Amanar Akhabbar, History of Economic Ideas ' a clearly told story of a theory and its implementation from its first proposal as a log-linear empirical relation linking out-puts to inputs by Charles Cobb and Paul Douglas (1928), resulting in a plethora of highly critical, constructive, and supportive reactions, through to its acceptance as a substantive production function relationship in a wide range of research areas. The developments, and the continued criticisms and responses, are carefully discussed, building on extensive archival research.' David F. Hendry, HOPE 'Jeff E. Biddle has produced a remarkable book on the history of regression studies on the Cobb-Douglas production function.' Aiko Ikeo, Erasmus Journal for Philosophy and Economics

Muu info

Recounts the history of a widely used statistical technique in economics, offering insight into how innovative research tools gain acceptance.
List of Figures
ix
Acknowledgments xi
Introduction 1(12)
PART I PAUL DOUGLAS AND HIS REGRESSION, 1927-1948
1 The Origins of Douglas's Production Function Research Program and His Initial Time Series Studies
13(46)
2 The Douglas-Mendershausen Debate and the Cross-Section Studies
59(46)
3 Theoretical and Econometric Challenges of the Early 1940s, and Douglas's Final Word
105(40)
PART II THE DIFFUSION OF THE COBB-DOUGLAS REGRESSION
4 Three Important Developments in the Life of the Cobb-Douglas Regression, 1952-1961
145(24)
5 The Cobb-Douglas Regression in Agricultural Economics, 1944-1965
169(46)
6 The Cobb-Douglas Regression as a Tool for Measuring and Explaining Economic Growth
215(84)
PART III CONCLUSION
7 On the Success of the Cobb-Douglas Regression
299(16)
References 315(16)
Index 331
Jeff E. Biddle is a Professor of Economics at Michigan State University. He is a past president of the History of Economics Society, and his current research focuses on the history of empirical methods in economic research.