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E-raamat: Resilience: The Science of Adaptation to Climate Change

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Edited by (International Environmental Technology Center, UN Environment, Osaka, Japan), Edited by (Mercy Corps, London, United Kingdom)
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  • Ilmumisaeg: 09-May-2018
  • Kirjastus: Elsevier Science Publishing Co Inc
  • Keel: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9780128118924
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Resilience: The Science of Adaptation to Climate ChangeSuurem pilt
  • Formaat: PDF+DRM
  • Ilmumisaeg: 09-May-2018
  • Kirjastus: Elsevier Science Publishing Co Inc
  • Keel: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9780128118924
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In Resilience: The Science of Adaptation to Climate Change leading experts analyze and question ongoing adaptation interventions. Contributions span different disciplinary perspectives, from law to engineering, and cover different regions from Africa to the Pacific. Chapters assess the need for adaptation, highlighting climate change impacts such as sea level rise, increases in temperature, changing hydrological variability, and threats to food security. The book then discusses the state of global legislation and means of tracking progress. It reviews ways to build resilience in a range of contexts- from the Arctic, to small island states, to urban areas, across food and energy systems. Critical tools for adaptation planning are highlighted - from social capital and ethics, to decision support systems, to innovative finance and risk transfer mechanisms. Controversies related to geoengineering and migration are also discussed. This book is an indispensable resource for scientists, practitioners, and policy makers working in climate change adaptation, sustainable development, ecosystem management, and urban planning.

  • Provides a summary of tools and methods used in adaptation including recent innovations
  • Includes chapters from a diverse range of authors from academic institutions, humanitarian organizations, and the United Nations
  • Evaluates adaptation options, highlighting gaps in knowledge where further research or new tools are needed
List of Contributors
xiii
Preface xv
Acknowledgements xvii
Introduction xix
Section I Adaptation Needs
1 Extreme Events: Trends and Risk Assessment Methodologies
Adam H. Sobel
Michael K. Tippett
1.1 Impact of Climate Change on Extremes
3(4)
1.1.1 Heatwaves
3(1)
1.1.2 Extreme Precipitation Events
4(1)
1.1.3 Droughts
5(1)
1.1.4 Tropical Cyclones
6(1)
1.1.5 Severe Convection
6(1)
1.1.6 Human Impacts
7(1)
1.2 Catastrophe Modeling and Risk Assessment for Adaptation
7(2)
1.2.1 Historical Observations and Extreme Value Theory
7(1)
1.2.2 Catastrophe Models
8(1)
1.2.3 Dynamical Models
9(1)
1.3 Different Questions
9(4)
References
10(2)
Further Reading
12(1)
2 Adapting to Sea-Level Rise
Robert J. Nicholls
2.1 Introduction
13(1)
2.2 Coastal Systems
14(2)
2.3 Global-Mean and Relative Sea-Level Change
16(1)
2.4 Impacts of Sea-Level Rise
17(1)
2.5 Recent Impacts of Sea-Level Rise
18(1)
2.6 Future Impacts of Sea-Level Rise
19(1)
2.7 Adaptation to Sea-Level Rise
19(6)
2.7.1 Adaptation Strategies and Options
20(3)
2.7.2 Adaptation Processes and Frameworks
23(1)
2.7.3 Choosing Between Adaptation Measures/Options
24(1)
2.7.4 Adaptation Experience
25(1)
2.8 Discussion/Conclusions
25(6)
Acknowledgments
26(1)
References
26(3)
Further Reading
29(2)
3 Climate Change, Climate Extremes, and Global Food Production---Adaptation in the Agricultural Sector
Elisabeth Vogel
Rachelle Meyer
3.1 Introduction
31(1)
3.2 Bibliographic Network Analysis
32(4)
3.2.1 Methodology
32(1)
3.2.2 Overview of the Literature
33(3)
3.3 The Context: Main Challenges for Food Security in the 21st Century
36(1)
3.3.1 Population Growth and Changes in Consumption Patterns Increase Food Demand
36(1)
3.3.2 Limitations in Land Area Available for Agricultural Production
36(1)
3.3.3 Yield Trends and Yield Gaps
37(1)
3.4 Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Extreme Events on Crop Production
37(2)
3.4.1 Introduction
37(1)
3.4.2 Climate Trends and Agricultural Production
37(1)
3.4.3 Changes in the Variability of Climate and Climate Extreme Events
38(1)
3.4.4 Impacts of Increased CO2 Concentrations
38(1)
3.4.5 Other Impacts of Climate Change on Food Production
39(1)
3.5 Adapting Global Crop Production to Climate Change
39(5)
3.5.1 Types of Adaptation
39(1)
3.5.2 Adaptation Options
40(1)
3.5.3 Challenges and Opportunities
41(3)
3.6 Conclusions
44(7)
Acknowledgments
44(1)
References
44(7)
4 Tracking Adaptation Progress at the Global Level: Key Issues and Priorities
Anne Olhoff
Elina Vaananen
Barney Dickson
4.1 Introduction
51(1)
4.2 The Emerging Global Perspective on Adaptation
51(1)
4.3 Tracking Progress in Adaptation at the Global Level
52(1)
4.4 Priorities for Tracking Adaptation Under the UNFCCC
53(6)
4.4.1 Agreeing on What to Track
53(4)
4.4.2 Agreeing on How to Track Progress
57(1)
4.4.3 Tackling Data and Information Challenges
57(2)
4.5 Summary
59(4)
References
59(2)
Further Reading
61(2)
5 Evolution of Climate Change Adaptation Policy and Negotiation
Saleemul Huq
Yousuf Mahid
Nadine Suliman
5.1 Introduction
63(1)
5.2 Overview of Climate Change Adaptation: An Evolving Challenge
63(1)
5.3 Current Policy and Legal Framework for Climate Change Adaptation Under the UNFCCC
64(1)
5.3.1 Adoption in the Convention
64(1)
5.4 Conference of Parties (COP) and Major Adaptation Milestones Under the Convention
65(4)
5.4.1 Impact Observation and Assessment of Risks and Vulnerability
65(2)
5.4.2 Moving Towards Planning and Implementation Phase
67(1)
5.4.3 Exchange of Information and Lessons Learned
67(1)
5.4.4 Scaling up Implementation Strategies and Coordinating the Evolving Adaptation Agenda
67(2)
5.4.5 The Paris Agreement and Adaptation
69(1)
5.5 Climate Change Adaptation Initiatives in Other International Forums
69(2)
5.5.1 The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015--30, Hyogo Framework for Action 2005--15, and International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction
69(1)
5.5.2 Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)
70(1)
5.5.3 United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification
71(1)
5.5.4 European Climate Adaptation Platform
71(1)
5.6 National Level Progress on Adaptation Policy Initiatives
71(1)
5.7 Major Gaps and the Way Forward
72(1)
5.8 Conclusion
73(6)
References
74(5)
Section II Adaptation Actions---Hazards, Ecosystems, Sectors
6 Flood Risk Management in the United Kingdom: Putting Climate Change Adaptation Into Practice in the Thames Estuary
Darren Lumbroso
David Ramsbottom
6.1 Introduction
79(2)
6.2 Future Change and Adaptation
81(1)
6.2.1 Future Changes
81(1)
6.2.2 Adaptation
82(1)
6.3 The Overall Approach to Flood Risk Management Under the TE2100 Plan
82(3)
6.4 Background to the Indicators
85(1)
6.5 The Philosophy Behind the Development of Flood Risk Management Options for the Thames Estuary
85(1)
6.6 Conclusions
86(3)
References
87(1)
Further Reading
87(2)
7 The Science of Adaptation to Extreme Heat
Ethan D. Coffel
Alex de Sherbinin
Radley M. Horton
Kathryn Lane
Stefan Kienberger
Olga Wilhelmi
7.1 Introduction
89(1)
7.2 Heat Projections
89(6)
7.2.1 Microclimates and the Urban Heat Island
91(1)
7.2.2 Population Vulnerability
92(1)
7.2.3 Health Impacts of Heat Stress
93(1)
7.2.4 Urban Heat, Air Quality, and Infrastructure
94(1)
7.3 Adaptation Strategies
95(3)
7.3.1 Urban Design
95(2)
7.3.2 Behavior
97(1)
7.4 Conclusions
98(7)
References
98(7)
8 Measuring Drought Resilience Through Community Capitals
Andries J. Jordaan
Dusan M. Sakulski
Curtis Mashimbye
Fumiso Mayumbe
8.1 Introduction
105(1)
8.2 Description of Study Area
105(2)
8.3 Drought Hazard Risk Assessment
107(1)
8.4 Vulnerability and Coping Capacity Indicators
108(2)
8.4.1 Weighting of Indicators
108(1)
8.4.2 Community Capitals Analysis
109(1)
8.5 Results of the Vulnerability and Coping Capacity Assessment
110(3)
8.6 Conclusion
113(4)
References
114(1)
Further Reading
115(2)
9 Community-Based Adaptation: Alaska Native Communities Design a Relocation Process to Protect Their Human Rights
Robin Bronen
9.1 Introduction
117(2)
9.2 Methods
119(5)
9.2.1 Governance Institutions to Protect in Place
119(1)
9.2.2 Alaska
120(1)
9.2.3 Shishmaref
121(1)
9.2.4 Quinhagak
121(1)
9.2.5 Relocation Institutional Framework
122(2)
9.2.6 Components of an Integrated Social-Ecological Assessment and Monitoring Tool
124(1)
9.3 Conclusion
124(3)
References
125(1)
Further Reading
126(1)
10 California: It's Complicated: Drought, Drinking Water, and Drylands
Gillisann Harootunian
10.1 Introduction: The Drought, Drylands, and Ecosystem Services
127(2)
10.2 Scientific Evidence: Climate Change and the US West
129(1)
10.3 Taking Every Drop: The Mining of Water Sources and the Drinking Water Crisis
130(3)
10.4 Legislative Response: Surface Water and Groundwater
133(3)
10.5 Legislative Response: Drinking Water Crisis
136(2)
10.6 Fiscal Response: Drinking Water Crisis
138(2)
10.7 Conclusion
140(3)
References
140(2)
Further Reading
142(1)
11 Advancing Coastal Climate Resilience: Inclusive Data and Decision-Making for Small Island Communities
Roger-Mark De Souza
Judi Clarke
11.1 Introduction and Context
143(1)
11.2 An Approach to Coastal Community Engagement to Build the Evidence Base
144(1)
11.3 Key Steps
145(2)
11.3.1 Contextualize the Approach
145(1)
11.3.2 Survey/Interviews
145(1)
11.3.3 Participatory Mapping
146(1)
11.3.4 Risk Assessment and Adaptation Analysis
146(1)
11.4 Where Could Such an Approach be Tested?
147(1)
11.5 Conclusion
148(3)
Acknowledgment
149(1)
References
149(1)
Further Reading
149(2)
12 Building Urban Resilience to Address Urbanization and Climate Change
Julie Greenwalt
Nina Raasakka
Keith Alverson
12.1 Urbanization and Climate Change: Defining the 21st Century
151(1)
12.2 Urban Troubles Trifecta: Environmental Degradation, Climate Change, and Vulnerable Populations
152(3)
12.3 Towards Urban Resilience and Global Sustainable Development
155(10)
12.3.1 Multilateral Agreements on Cities, Climate Change, and Sustainable Development
155(2)
12.3.2 Urban Resilience: Local Action, Cooperation and Understanding
157(5)
References
162(1)
Further Reading
163(2)
13 Climate-Smart Agriculture in Southeast Asia: Lessons from Community-Based Adaptation Programs in the Philippines and Timor-Leste
Alvin Chandra
Karen E. McNamara
13.1 Introduction
165(2)
13.2 Methods
167(2)
13.2.1 Sampling and Data Collection
167(1)
13.2.2 Data Analysis
168(1)
13.3 Results: Characterizes, Similarities, and Differences of CSA Practices
169(6)
13.3.1 Characteristics of Climate-Smart Agriculture
169(1)
13.3.2 Institutional: Climate-Resiliency Field Schools Versus Consortium Approach
169(3)
13.3.3 Finance: Bottom-Up Budgeting Versus Microfinance
172(1)
13.3.4 Market: Climate Risks Versus Market Shocks
173(2)
13.4 Discussion: Implications for Theory and Practice
175(1)
13.5 Conclusion and Recommendations
176(5)
Acknowledgements
177(1)
References
177(4)
14 Challenges in Building Climate-Resilient Quality Energy Infrastructure in Africa
Ashbindu Singh
H. Gyde Lund
Jane Barr
14.1 Introduction
181(1)
14.2 Potential Impact of Climate Change in Africa
181(1)
14.3 Adaptation Options in Energy Sector
182(4)
14.3.1 Climate Adaptation in Hydropower
184(2)
14.4 Response
186(1)
14.5 Conclusions
187(6)
References
188(5)
Section III Tools and Approaches
15 Ethics, Communities, and Climate Resilience: An Examination by Case Studies
Kerry W. Bowman
Alan Warner
Yousef M. Manialawy
15.1 Background and Significance: The Need for Climate Resilience
193(3)
15.2 Ethics, Social Capital, and Climate Resilience
196(1)
15.3 Ethics, the Precautionary Principle, and the Need for Climate Resilience
197(1)
15.4 Can Ethics Strengthen Climate Resilience?
197(1)
15.5 Indigenous People: Vulnerability and Knowledge
198(5)
15.5.1 Detailed Case Studies
199(4)
15.6 Conclusion
203(4)
References
203(1)
Photographic Sources
204(1)
Further Reading
204(3)
16 A Framework for Assessing the Effectiveness of Ecosystem-Based Approaches to Adaptation
Hannah Reid
Amanda Bourne
Halcyone Muller
Karen Podvin
Sarshen Scorgie
Victor Orindi
16.1 Introduction
207(2)
16.2 How Do We Know If EbA Is Effective?
209(1)
16.3 Applying the Framework---Is EbA Effective?
209(4)
16.3.1 Effectiveness for Human Societies
210(2)
16.3.2 Effectiveness for the Ecosystem
212(1)
16.3.3 Financial and Economic Effectiveness
212(1)
16.4 Policy and Institutional Issues
213(1)
16.5 Conclusion
214(3)
Acknowledgment
214(1)
References
214(3)
17 The Global Framework for Climate Services Adaptation Programme in Africa
Janak Pathak
Filipe D.F. Lucio
17.1 Introduction
217(1)
17.2 The GFCS Adaptation Programme in Africa: Phase I
218(1)
17.3 Engagement for the Implementation of Climate Services
219(1)
17.4 Operationalization of Climate Services
220(1)
17.4.1 Tanzania
220(1)
17.4.2 Malawi
220(1)
17.5 The Inception of Phase I
221(1)
17.6 Progress Based on GFCS Five Pillars
221(3)
17.6.1 User Interface Platform
221(2)
17.6.2 Climate Services Information System
223(1)
17.6.3 Observation and Monitoring
223(1)
17.6.4 Research, Modeling, and Prediction
224(1)
17.6.5 Capacity Development
224(1)
17.7 Project Outcome/Benefits
224(2)
17.8 Conclusion
226(1)
References
226(1)
18 Supporting Farmers Facing Drought: Lessons from a Climate Service in Jamaica
John Furlow
James Buizer
Simon J. Mason
Glenroy Brown
18.1 Introduction
227(3)
18.1.1 Policy Development Process
227(2)
18.1.2 Developing a Climate Service
229(1)
18.2 Technical Details of the Drought Information
230(1)
18.2.1 The Standardized Precipitation Index
230(1)
18.2.2 Drought Forecasting Procedure
231(1)
18.3 From Tool to Service: Communicating Drought Information to Farmers
231(1)
18.4 Impact Evaluation
232(2)
18.4.1 Evaluating the Impact of the Drought Information Service on Agricultural Production
232(1)
18.4.2 Approach
232(1)
18.4.3 Findings
233(1)
18.4.4 Limitations of the Study
234(1)
18.5 Recommendations Regarding Climate Services
234(1)
18.6 Conclusions
235(2)
Acknowledgment
235(1)
References
235(2)
19 Forecast-Based Financing and Climate Change Adaptation: Uganda Makes History Using Science to Prepare for Floods
Eddie Wasswa Jjemba
Brian Kanaahe Mwebaze
Julie Arrighi
Erin Coughlan de Perez
Meghan Bailey
19.1 Introduction
237(1)
19.2 Developing the SOPs
238(1)
19.3 Overview of SOPs
239(1)
19.4 The Triggers
239(1)
19.5 Distributing Relief Items
239(1)
19.6 Preparing to Assess Impacts
240(1)
19.7 Impact Results
240(1)
19.8 Key Lessons
241(1)
19.9 Conclusion
242(1)
References
242(1)
20 Managing Risks from Climate Change on the African Continent: The African Risk Capacity (ARC) as an Innovative Risk Financing Mechanism
Ekhosuehi Iyahen
Joanna Syroka
20.1 Introduction
243(2)
20.2 Innovative Financing for Climate Change Adaptation: The Extreme Climate Facility (XCF)
245(2)
20.3 XCF Research & Development
247(1)
20.4 Climate Adaptation Plans
247(1)
20.5 Extreme Climate Index
248(2)
20.6 Financial & Legal Structure
250(2)
20.7 Conclusion
252(1)
References
252(1)
Further Reading
252(1)
21 Climate Change Adaptation in Ethiopia: Developing a Method to Assess Program Options
Karyn M. Fox
Suzanne Nelson
Timothy R. Frankenberger
Mark Langworthy
21.1 Introduction
253(1)
21.2 Concepts for CCA Options Analysis
254(2)
21.2.1 Climate-Related Shocks, Climate Change Adaptation, and Resilience
254(2)
21.2.2 What Are CCA Options?
256(1)
21.3 Methodology
256(3)
21.3.1 Selection of Adaptation Options for Analysis
256(1)
21.3.2 Selection and Application of the Research Tools
256(1)
21.3.3 Research Process: Validation and Consensus Building
257(2)
21.4 Findings
259(4)
21.4.1 Findings on GRAD and PRIME Adaptation Options
259(3)
21.4.2 Findings Regarding Implementation of the Decision-Making Tools
262(1)
21.5 Concluding Remarks and Recommendations
263(1)
21.5.1 Recommendations for CCA Investment
263(1)
21.6 Recommendations for Implementation of the Decision-Making Tools
263(1)
21.7 Investing in Enabling Conditions
264(3)
Acknowledgments
264(1)
References
264(1)
Further Reading
265(2)
22 Social Capital as a Determinant of Resilience: Implications for Adaptation Policy
Siobhan E. Kerr
22.1 Introduction
267(1)
22.2 Risk and Uneven Resilience
268(1)
22.3 Defining Social Capital
268(1)
22.4 Social Capital and Resilience
269(3)
22.5 Measuring Social Capital
272(1)
22.6 Conclusions and Further Study
273(6)
References
273(6)
Section IV Emerging Issues
23 Climate-Resilient Development in Fragile Contexts
Sarah Henly-Shepard
Zinta Zommers
Eliot Levine
Daniel Abrahams
23.1 Introduction
279(1)
23.2 State of the Evidence
280(2)
23.2.1 Climate-Fragility Nexus
280(1)
23.2.2 Challenges to Breaking Down the Humanitarian Aid/Development Wall
281(1)
23.2.3 The Need for New Frameworks
281(1)
23.3 On the Frontlines
282(5)
23.3.1 Overview
282(1)
23.3.2 Case Study 1: The Climate-Conflict Nexus: Lessons from Karamoja
282(2)
23.3.3 Case Study 2: Climate Change and Famine in Ethiopia
284(3)
23.4 Conclusions and Recommendations
287(5)
23.4.1 Bridging Solutions
288(1)
Acknowledgements
289(1)
References
289(1)
Further Reading
290(2)
24 Ecological, Agricultural, and Health Impacts of Solar Geoengineering
Christopher H. Trisos
Corey Gabriel
Alan Robock
Lili Xia
24.1 Solar Radiation Management Techniques
292(3)
24.2 Solar Radiation Management Scenario Development for Impact Assessment
295(1)
24.3 Climate Responses to Solar Radiation Management
296(1)
24.4 Agricultural Impacts
296(3)
24.4.1 Temperature
297(1)
24.4.2 Precipitation
297(1)
24.4.3 Solar Radiation
297(1)
24.4.4 Surface Ozone Concentration
297(1)
24.4.5 Ultraviolet (UV) Radiation
298(1)
24.4.6 Combined Effects on Agriculture
298(1)
24.5 Ecological Impacts
299(1)
24.5.1 Productivity on Land and in the Oceans
299(1)
24.5.2 Biodiversity and Ecosystem Impacts
300(1)
24.6 Health Impacts
300(1)
24.7 Conclusion
300(5)
Acknowledgments
301(1)
References
301(4)
25 The Progression of Climate Change, Human Rights, and Human Mobility in the Context of Transformative Resilience---A Perspective Over the Pacific
Cosmin Corendea
Tanvi Mani
25.1 Introduction
305(1)
25.2 Contextualizing Resilience Within the Migration Narrative in the Pacific
306(2)
25.3 Understanding Human Mobility in the Pacific Context
308(1)
25.4 Case Studies That Support a Regional Approach
309(2)
25.4.1 Fiji
309(2)
25.4.2 Vanuatu
311(1)
25.5 Conclusion
311(6)
References
312(1)
Further Reading
313(2)
Annex
315(2)
26 Integrated Loss and Damage---Climate Change Adaptation---Disaster Risk Reduction Framework: The Case of the Philippines
Ebinezer R. Florano
26.1 Introduction
317(1)
26.2 Climate Change and Disasters in the Philippines
318(2)
26.3 Policy and Institutional Frameworks for Determining L&D
320(1)
26.4 Determining L&D: The Disaster Risk Reduction Approach
320(1)
26.5 Determining L&D: The Climate Change Adaptation Approach
321(2)
26.6 Integrated L&D--CCA--DRR Framework
323(2)
26.7 Conclusions
325(4)
References
325(4)
Section V Next Steps
27 Intelligent Tinkering in Climate Change Adaptation
Zinta Zommers
Keith Alverson
27.1 Introduction
329(1)
27.2 Learning from Other Fields
330(1)
27.3 Hierarchy of Evidence
330(2)
27.4 Challenges and Application to Adaptation
332(1)
27.5 Intelligent Tinkering
333(1)
27.6 Steps Forward
334(3)
References
335(2)
Author Index 337(6)
Subject Index 343
Zinta Zommers is Mercy Corps Head of the Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance. A Rhodes and Commonwealth Scholar, she has graduate degrees in Zoology and Development Studies from the University of Oxford. Zinta worked with United Nations Secretary-Generals Climate Change Support Team, during the negotiation of the Paris Agreement, with United Nations Environment and with the Food and Agriculture Organization. She has advised the United States Government and the Government of Sierra Leone, and has worked with vulnerable communities in over 10 countries across Africa and Asia. She previously coedited the book, Reducing Disaster: Early Warning Systems for Climate Change, and is a Lead Author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Keith Alverson has degrees in Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering and East Asian Studies from Princeton University (1988) and a doctorate in Physical Oceanography from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (1995). He has over 150 publications including Past Global Changes and Their Significance for the Future (Elsevier, 2000). He is currently Secretary General of the IUGG Union Commission on Climatic and Environmental Change and elected at-large member of the International Association for Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences Executive Committee.
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