Preface |
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xi | |
Acknowledgments |
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xii | |
Part I Introduction |
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1 | (88) |
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3 | (11) |
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1.1 Machines that learn - some recent history |
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3 | (4) |
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1.2 Twenty canonical questions |
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7 | (2) |
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9 | (2) |
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1.4 A comment about example datasets |
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11 | (1) |
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12 | (1) |
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13 | (1) |
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2 The landscape of learning machines |
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14 | (27) |
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14 | (1) |
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2.2 Types of data for learning machines |
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15 | (2) |
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2.3 Will that be supervised or unsupervised? |
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17 | (1) |
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2.4 An unsupervised example |
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18 | (2) |
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2.5 More lack of supervision - where are the parents? |
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20 | (1) |
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2.6 Engines, complex and primitive |
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20 | (2) |
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2.7 Model richness means what, exactly? |
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22 | (3) |
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2.8 Membership or probability of membership? |
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25 | (2) |
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2.9 A taxonomy of machines? |
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27 | (3) |
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2.10 A note of caution - one of many |
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30 | (1) |
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2.11 Highlights from the theory |
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30 | (6) |
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36 | (5) |
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41 | (16) |
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41 | (1) |
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41 | (1) |
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42 | (1) |
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43 | (2) |
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3.5 Bayes classifiers – regular and naive |
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45 | (2) |
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47 | (1) |
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48 | (2) |
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3.8 Support vector machines |
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50 | (3) |
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53 | (1) |
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54 | (1) |
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3.11 Evolutionary and genetic algorithms |
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55 | (1) |
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56 | (1) |
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4 Three examples and several machines |
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57 | (32) |
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57 | (1) |
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4.2 Simulated cholesterol data |
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58 | (3) |
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61 | (1) |
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62 | (1) |
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4.5 Biomedical means unbalanced |
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63 | (1) |
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4.6 Measures of machine performance |
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64 | (2) |
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4.7 Linear analysis of cholesterol data |
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66 | (1) |
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4.8 Nonlinear analysis of cholesterol data |
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67 | (3) |
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4.9 Analysis of the lupus data |
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70 | (5) |
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4.10 Analysis of the stroke data |
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75 | (4) |
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4.11 Further analysis of the lupus and stroke data |
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79 | (8) |
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87 | (2) |
Part II A machine toolkit |
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89 | (66) |
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91 | (27) |
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91 | (1) |
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5.2 Inside and around the model |
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92 | (1) |
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5.3 Interpreting the coefficients |
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93 | (1) |
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5.4 Using logistic regression as a decision rule |
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94 | (1) |
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5.5 Logistic regression applied to the cholesterol data |
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94 | (4) |
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98 | (3) |
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5.7 Another cautionary note |
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101 | (1) |
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5.8 Probability estimates and decision rules |
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102 | (1) |
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5.9 Evaluating the goodness-of-fit of a logistic regression model |
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103 | (3) |
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5.10 Calibrating a logistic regression |
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106 | (5) |
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111 | (2) |
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5.12 Logistic regression and reference models |
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113 | (2) |
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115 | (3) |
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118 | (19) |
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118 | (1) |
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118 | (2) |
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120 | (1) |
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6.4 Selecting features, making splits |
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120 | (1) |
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6.5 Good split, bad split |
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121 | (3) |
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6.6 Finding good features for making splits |
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124 | (1) |
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125 | (2) |
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6.8 Stopping and pruning rules |
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127 | (1) |
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6.9 Using functions of the features |
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128 | (1) |
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129 | (3) |
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6.11 Variable importance - growing on trees? |
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132 | (2) |
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6.12 Permuting for importance |
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134 | (1) |
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6.13 The continuing mystery of trees |
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135 | (2) |
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7 Random Forests - trees everywhere |
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137 | (18) |
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7.1 Random Forests in less than five minutes |
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137 | (1) |
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7.2 Random treks through the data |
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138 | (1) |
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7.3 Random treks through the features |
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139 | (1) |
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7.4 Walking through the forest |
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140 | (1) |
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7.5 Weighted and unweighted voting |
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140 | (2) |
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7.6 Finding subsets in the data using proximities |
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142 | (2) |
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7.7 Applying Random Forests to the Stroke data |
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144 | (7) |
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7.8 Random Forests in the universe of machines |
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151 | (2) |
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153 | (2) |
Part III Analysis fundamentals |
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155 | (90) |
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157 | (14) |
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157 | (1) |
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8.2 Understanding correlations |
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158 | (1) |
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8.3 Hazards of correlations |
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159 | (4) |
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8.4 Correlations big and small |
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163 | (5) |
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168 | (3) |
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9 More than two variables |
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171 | (27) |
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171 | (1) |
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9.2 Tiny problems, large consequences |
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172 | (2) |
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9.3 Mathematics to the rescue? |
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174 | (2) |
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9.4 Good models need not be unique |
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176 | (3) |
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9.5 Contexts and coefficients |
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179 | (2) |
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9.6 Interpreting and testing coefficients in models |
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181 | (5) |
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9.7 Merging models, pooling lists, ranking features |
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186 | (4) |
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190 | (8) |
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198 | (17) |
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198 | (1) |
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198 | (3) |
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10.3 When the bootstrap works |
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201 | (1) |
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10.4 When the bootstrap doesn't work |
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202 | (1) |
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10.5 Resampling from a single group in different ways |
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203 | (1) |
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10.6 Resampling from groups with unequal sizes |
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204 | (2) |
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10.7 Resampling from small datasets |
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206 | (1) |
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207 | (3) |
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10.9 Still more on permutation methods |
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210 | (4) |
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214 | (1) |
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11 Error analysis and model validation |
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215 | (30) |
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215 | (2) |
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11.2 Errors? What errors? |
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217 | (1) |
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11.3 Unbalanced data, unbalanced errors |
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218 | (1) |
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11.4 Error analysis for a single machine |
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219 | (3) |
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11.5 Cross-validation error estimation |
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222 | (2) |
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11.6 Cross-validation or cross-training? |
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224 | (2) |
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11.7 The leave-one-out method |
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226 | (1) |
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11.8 The out-of-bag method |
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227 | (1) |
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11.9 Intervals for error estimates for a single machine |
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228 | (2) |
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11.10 Tossing random coins into the abyss |
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230 | (2) |
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11.11 Error estimates for unbalanced data |
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232 | (1) |
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11.12 Confidence intervals for comparing error values |
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233 | (3) |
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11.13 Other measures of machine accuracy |
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236 | (2) |
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11.14 Benchmarking and winning the lottery |
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238 | (1) |
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11.15 Error analysis for predicting continuous outcomes |
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239 | (1) |
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240 | (5) |
Part IV Machine strategies |
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245 | (18) |
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12 Ensemble methods — let's take a vote |
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247 | (8) |
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247 | (1) |
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12.2 Weak correlation with outcome can be good enough |
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247 | (3) |
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250 | (4) |
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254 | (1) |
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13 Summary and conclusions |
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255 | (8) |
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255 | (2) |
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257 | (2) |
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13.3 Binary decision or probability estimate? |
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259 | (1) |
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13.4 Survival machines? Risk machines? |
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259 | (1) |
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13.5 And where are we going? |
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260 | (3) |
Appendix |
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263 | (8) |
References |
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271 | (10) |
Index |
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281 | |