| Preface |
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v | |
| Mathematics and Chance |
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1 | (6) |
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1 Principles of Modelling Chance |
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7 | (20) |
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7 | (7) |
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1.2 Properties and Construction of Probability Measures |
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14 | (6) |
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20 | (7) |
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24 | (3) |
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2 Stochastic Standard Models |
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27 | (24) |
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2.1 The Uniform Distributions |
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27 | (3) |
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2.2 Urn Models with Replacement |
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30 | (5) |
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2.3 Urn Models without Replacement |
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35 | (4) |
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2.4 The Poisson Distribution |
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39 | (1) |
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2.5 Waiting Time Distributions |
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40 | (6) |
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2.6 The Normal Distributions |
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46 | (5) |
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48 | (3) |
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3 Conditional Probabilities and Independence |
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51 | (41) |
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3.1 Conditional Probabilities |
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51 | (6) |
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57 | (7) |
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64 | (6) |
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3.4 Existence of Independent Random Variables, Product Measures |
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70 | (5) |
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75 | (4) |
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79 | (4) |
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83 | (9) |
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86 | (6) |
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4 Expectation and Variance |
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92 | (27) |
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92 | (8) |
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4.2 Waiting Time Paradox and Fair Price of an Option |
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100 | (7) |
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4.3 Variance and Covariance |
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107 | (3) |
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110 | (9) |
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114 | (5) |
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5 The Law of Large Numbers and the Central Limit Theorem |
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119 | (32) |
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5.1 The Law of Large Numbers |
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119 | (12) |
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5.2 Normal Approximation of Binomial Distributions |
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131 | (7) |
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5.3 The Central Limit Theorem |
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138 | (5) |
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5.4 Normal versus Poisson Approximation |
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143 | (8) |
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146 | (5) |
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151 | (40) |
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151 | (4) |
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6.2 Absorption Probabilities |
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155 | (4) |
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6.3 Asymptotic Stationarity |
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159 | (12) |
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171 | (20) |
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181 | (10) |
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191 | (36) |
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7.1 The Approach of Statistics |
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191 | (4) |
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195 | (4) |
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7.3 The Maximum Likelihood Principle |
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199 | (6) |
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7.4 Bias and Mean Squared Error |
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205 | (2) |
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207 | (7) |
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7.6 Consistent Estimators |
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214 | (4) |
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218 | (9) |
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222 | (5) |
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227 | (19) |
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8.1 Definition and Construction |
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227 | (6) |
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8.2 Confidence Intervals in the Binomial Model |
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233 | (6) |
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239 | (7) |
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243 | (3) |
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9 Around the Normal Distributions |
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246 | (14) |
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9.1 The Multivariate Normal Distributions |
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246 | (3) |
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9.2 The x2-, F- and t-Distributions |
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249 | (11) |
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256 | (4) |
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260 | (29) |
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260 | (5) |
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10.2 Neyman-Pearson Tests |
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265 | (6) |
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10.3 Most Powerful One-Sided Tests |
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271 | (3) |
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10.4 Parameter Tests in the Gaussian Product Model |
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274 | (15) |
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284 | (5) |
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11 Asymptotic Tests and Rank Tests |
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289 | (36) |
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11.1 Normal Approximation of Multinomial Distributions |
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289 | (7) |
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11.2 The Chi-Square Test of Goodness of Fit |
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296 | (7) |
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11.3 The Chi-Square Test of Independence |
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303 | (6) |
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11.4 Order and Rank Tests |
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309 | (16) |
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320 | (5) |
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12 Regression Models and Analysis of Variance |
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325 | (32) |
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12.1 Simple Linear Regression |
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325 | (4) |
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329 | (5) |
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12.3 The Gaussian Linear Model |
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334 | (8) |
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12.4 Analysis of Variance |
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342 | (15) |
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351 | (6) |
| Solutions |
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357 | (28) |
| Tables |
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385 | (6) |
| References |
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391 | (4) |
| List of Notation |
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395 | (4) |
| Index |
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399 | |