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E-raamat: Strategic Foresight: A New Look at Scenarios

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  • Formaat: PDF+DRM
  • Ilmumisaeg: 30-Apr-2016
  • Kirjastus: Palgrave Macmillan
  • Keel: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9780230622654
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Strategic Foresight: A New Look at ScenariosSuurem pilt
  • Formaat: PDF+DRM
  • Ilmumisaeg: 30-Apr-2016
  • Kirjastus: Palgrave Macmillan
  • Keel: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9780230622654
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Scenario planning is the principles, methods, and techniques for looking forward into the future and trying to anticipate and influence what is to come next. This book provides students and line managers in organizations with the means to create better scenarios and to use them to create winning business strategies. The purpose is to shed new light on scenarios and scenario-like thinking in organizations for managers at every level within a company. The book covers scenarios such as: economic outlooks; political environments; acquisitions; downsizing, and more.

Arvustused

"Strategic Foresight deserves to be widely read and discussed. The book holds that decision makers should imagine multiple possibilities and that predicting futures is less useful than shaping better futures. This constructive approach can have beneficial impacts for our feelings about our futures, our ability to mold our futures, and the futures we achieve." - William H Starbuck, Professor in Residence, University of Oregon





"In this timely and practical book, Alfred Marcus draws on his extensive knowledge of strategy, business, and society to show companies and their members how to systematically read the future, unlock its mysteries, and indeed take part in writing it." - Moshe Farjoun, The Schulich School of Business, Canada.

List of Figures and Tables xi
Acknowledgments xiii
Introduction 1
Turbulent Times
2
What Is Foresight?
4
The Role of Scenarios—Generating and Testing Strategies
5
Thinking about What Comes Next
6
1 Meeting the Challenges of the Future 9
Weaknesses in Scenario Development
9
Involving Every Person
10
Imagining Sequences of Events
13
Hedging against Uncertainties
14
Gamble on the "Most Probable" Outcome
14
Take the "Robust" Route
16
Delay until Further Clarity Emerges
16
Commit with Fallbacks
18
Shape the Future
19
Risk and Uncertainty
21
Looking at Scenarios in a New Way
22
A Tool for Meeting Challenges
24
Boxed Insert: How the Future Affects Commitments Businesses Make Today?
11
2 Thinking about the Future 27
Rules for Creating Scenarios
28
Start with the Past
28
Move to the Future
29
Rely on Master Narratives
30
Romances
30
Tragedies
31
Comedies
32
Understand the Journey
34
Clarify the Uncertainties
39
Use Diverse Stories for Decision Making
41
Engage Employees
43
3 The Challenges Businesses Face 47
What Are the Challenges?
48
How Attractive Are the Options?
52
Repositioning
52
Restructuring
52
Globalization
53
Innovation
53
Does the Organization Have Needed Capabilities?
59
Does the Organization Have Stories about What Might Happen?
60
Can the Organization Identify and Prepare for Surprises?
62
Looking Systematically at the Future
62
4 Population and Security Challenges 65
Looking for "Sweet Spots"
66
Finding Patterns
66
Finding Drivers
68
Attaching Vivid Names
70
Young and Educated
70
Relative Certainties and Uncertainties
73
Shell's Three Scenarios
73
Weak Signals and Wildcards
76
Irresolution
78
Motors of Change
79
"No Regrets" Strategy—Wal-Mart
79
Old and Feeble
80
Moving and Seeking
82
Young and Militant
82
Understanding Youth Violence
84
Historical Analogies
85
Indicators
87
Empirical Evidence
88
Theory
88
What Businesses Can Do?
92
Tools for Creating Scenarios
93
Boxed Insert: Growth of the Elderly in the World
81
Boxed Insert: Wal-Mart and Best Buy—A Comparison
83
5 Political and Economic Challenges 95
Reasons to Create Alternative Stories
97
To Understand the Impacts on Industry Structure
97
To Examine the Potential Outcomes of the Moves a Company Can Make
98
From Society to Government
101
The Centrality of Government
104
Government Scenarios
106
Free to Choose
106
Well-Regulated
108
Special Interests
109
Telecoms—An Example of Special Interests
109
Macroeconomic Scenarios
113
Turmoil and Instability (1930-1955)
114
Progress and Crisis (1956-1980)
115
Stable but Slower Growth (1981-2006)
117
Intersecting Stories
119
The Train Wreck
121
Boxed Insert: Strategic Change at Amazon
100
Boxed Insert: Monsanto's Quest
111
Boxed Insert: In and Out of Tune with the Business Cycle
123
6 Energy and Environmental Challenges 127
An End to the Great Smoothing?
128
Energy Prices
128
Fuel Mix
130
Energy Politics
131
The Drivers of Change
133
Demand for and Supply of Energy
133
War and Global Politics
137
Climate Change
141
Boxed Insert: Overcoming Institutional Constraints in Minnesota
131
Boxed Insert: Hope or Hype at General Motors
138
Boxed Insert: U.S. Carbon Emissions
144
Afterword Technology to the Rescue? 149
Massoud Amin
Key Differentiators
153
The New Genetics
154
Information Technology
155
Materials Advances
156
Energetics
156
Biomedical Engineering
156
Nanotechnology
157
Empowered by People
157
The Energy Gap
160
The Problem for Companies
161
Innovation versus Management
163
Systems Theory
165
Appendix A: Intersecting Stories of the Future 169
Appendix B: Social, Political, and Economic Indicators: Web Resources 173
Appendix C: Additional Technological Opportunities 175
Notes 179
Further Reading 195
Index 199
ALFRED MARCUS is a Professor in the department of Strategic Management and Organization, Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota, USA. 
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