| About the Author |
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xvii | |
| Foreword |
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xix | |
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| Preface to the Second Edition |
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xxi | |
| Preface from the First Edition |
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xxv | |
| How to Use This Book |
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xxxv | |
| Chapter 1 The Appeal and Power of Strategic Modelling |
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1 | (30) |
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1 | (4) |
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A New Approach to Modelling |
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5 | (2) |
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The Puzzling Dynamics of International Fisheries |
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7 | (3) |
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Model of a Natural Fishery |
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10 | (3) |
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Simulated Dynamics of a Natural Fishery |
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12 | (1) |
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Operating a Simple Harvested Fishery |
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13 | (12) |
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Harvesting in Bona vista, Newfoundland - A Thought Experiment |
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15 | (2) |
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A Start on Analysing Dynamics and Performance Through Time |
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17 | (3) |
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Saving Bonavista - Using Simulation to Devise a Sustainable Fishery |
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20 | (1) |
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Dynamic Complexity and Performance Through Time |
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20 | (3) |
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Cunning Fish - A Scenario with Reduced Dynamic Complexity |
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23 | (2) |
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Preview of the Book and Topics Covered |
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25 | (2) |
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Appendix - Archive Materials from World Dynamics |
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27 | (1) |
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28 | (3) |
| Chapter 2 Introduction to Feedback Systems Thinking |
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31 | (32) |
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Ways of Interpreting Situations in Business and Society |
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31 | (8) |
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32 | (2) |
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Feedback Systems Thinking - An Illustration |
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34 | (3) |
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37 | (1) |
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The Invisibility of Feedback |
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38 | (1) |
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A Start on Causal Loop Diagrams |
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39 | (2) |
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Structure and Behaviour Through Time - Feedback Loops and the Dynamics of a Slow-to-Respond Shower |
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41 | (6) |
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Processes in a Shower 'System' |
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44 | (1) |
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Simulation of a Shower and the Dynamics of Balancing Loops |
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45 | (2) |
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From Events to Dynamics and Feedback - Drug-related Crime |
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47 | (5) |
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48 | (2) |
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Scope and Boundary of Factors in Drug-related Crime |
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50 | (1) |
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An Aside - More Practice with Link Polarity and Loop Types |
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51 | (1) |
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Purpose of Causal Loop Diagrams - A Summary |
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52 | (1) |
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Feedback Structure and Dynamics of a Technology-based Growth Business |
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52 | (3) |
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Causal Loop Diagrams - Basic Tips |
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55 | (3) |
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Picking and Naming Variables |
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55 | (1) |
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Meaning of Arrows and Link Polarity |
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56 | (1) |
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Drawing, Identifying and Naming Feedback Loops |
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57 | (1) |
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Causal Loop Diagram of Psychological Pressures and Unintended Haste in a Troubled Internet Start-Up |
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58 | (3) |
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61 | (2) |
| Chapter 3 Modelling Dynamic Systems |
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63 | (28) |
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63 | (7) |
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Accumulating a 'Stock' of Faculty at Greenfield University |
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65 | (4) |
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Asset Stocks in a Real Organisation - BBC World Service |
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69 | (1) |
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70 | (2) |
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Modelling Symbols in Use: A Closer Look at Drug-related Crime |
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72 | (3) |
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75 | (5) |
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76 | (1) |
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Funds Required to Satisfy Addiction |
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77 | (1) |
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Street Price and Price Change |
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78 | (1) |
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79 | (1) |
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Experiments with the Model of Drug-related Crime |
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80 | (9) |
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80 | (2) |
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Escalating Crime - The Base Case |
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82 | (2) |
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Drilling Down to the Equations |
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84 | (2) |
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Anomalous Behaviour Over Time and Model Boundary |
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86 | (3) |
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Benefits of Model Building and Simulation |
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89 | (1) |
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90 | (1) |
| Chapter 4 World of Showers |
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91 | (18) |
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91 | (5) |
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Taking a Shower in World of Showers A |
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92 | (3) |
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Taking a Shower in World of Showers B |
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95 | (1) |
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Redesigning Your World of Showers |
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96 | (6) |
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Reflections on the World of Showers |
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98 | (2) |
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Metaphorical Shower Worlds in GlaxoSmithKline, IBM and Harley-Davidson |
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100 | (2) |
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102 | (3) |
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A Tour of Formulations in the Comfort-seeking Loop of the Hidden Shower |
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102 | (3) |
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Interdependence of Showers - Coupling Formulations |
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105 | (1) |
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Simulations of World of Showers B |
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105 | (2) |
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107 | (2) |
| Chapter 5 Cyclical Dynamics and the Process of Model Building |
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109 | (60) |
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An Overview of the Modelling Process |
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109 | (8) |
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Dynamic Hypothesis and Fundamental Modes of Dynamic Behaviour |
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111 | (1) |
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112 | (5) |
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Employment and Production Instability - Puzzling Performance Over Time |
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117 | (7) |
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Dialogue About Production Control |
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120 | (2) |
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Thought Experiment: A Surprise Demand Increase in an Ideal Factory |
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122 | (2) |
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Equation Formulations and Computations in Production Control |
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124 | (9) |
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Forecasting Shipments - Standard Formulations for Information Smoothing |
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126 | (1) |
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Inventory Control - Standard Formulations for Asset Stock Adjustment |
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127 | (1) |
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128 | (1) |
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The Computations Behind Simulation |
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129 | (4) |
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Modelling Workforce Management and Factory Production Dynamics |
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133 | (7) |
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Dialogue About Workforce Management |
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133 | (2) |
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Operating Constraint Linking Workforce to Production |
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135 | (1) |
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Simulation of the Complete Model: A Surprise Demand Increase in a Factory Where Production is Constrained by the Size of the Workforce |
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136 | (4) |
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140 | (1) |
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Equation Formulations in Workforce Management |
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140 | (5) |
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Departure Rate - Standard Formulation for Stock Depletion |
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141 | (1) |
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Hiring - Standard Formulations for Asset Stock Replacement and Adjustment |
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142 | (2) |
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144 | (1) |
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Chronic Cyclicality in Employment and Production and How to Cure It |
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145 | (7) |
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The Curious Effect of Random Variations in Demand |
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145 | (2) |
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Industry Cyclicality and Business Cycles |
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147 | (1) |
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Policy Formulation and What-ifs to Improve Factory Performance |
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148 | (4) |
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Modelling for Learning and Soft Systems |
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152 | (10) |
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A Second Pause for Reflection: System Dynamics and Soft Systems |
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153 | (3) |
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A Link to Soft Systems Methodology |
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156 | (3) |
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Alternative Views of a Radio Broadcaster |
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159 | (3) |
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Appendix 1: Model Communication and Policy Structure Diagrams |
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162 | (2) |
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Appendix 2: The Dynamics of Information Smoothing |
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164 | (2) |
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166 | (3) |
| Chapter 6 The Dynamics of Growth from Diffusion |
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169 | (32) |
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Stocks and Flows in New Product Adoption - A Conceptual Diffusion Model |
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171 | (1) |
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The Bass Model - An Elegant Special Case of a Diffusion Model |
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172 | (10) |
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The Dynamics of Product Adoption by Word-of-mouth |
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175 | (2) |
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The Need to Kick-start Adoption |
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177 | (1) |
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The Complete Bass Diffusion Model With Advertising |
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177 | (2) |
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The Dynamics of Product Adoption by Word-of-mouth and Advertising |
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179 | (3) |
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A Variation on the Diffusion Model: The Rise of Low-cost Air Travel in Europe |
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182 | (7) |
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easyjet - A Bright Idea, but Will it Work? |
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182 | (1) |
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Visualising the Business: Winning Customers in a New Segment |
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183 | (3) |
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Visualising Retaliation and Rivalry |
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186 | (2) |
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Feedback Loops in the easyJet Model |
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188 | (1) |
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Strategy and Simulation of Growth Scenarios |
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189 | (5) |
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Using the Fliers Simulator to Create Your Own Scenarios |
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193 | (1) |
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Simulation, Predictions and Scenarios |
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194 | (1) |
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194 | (1) |
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Appendix: More About the Fliers Model |
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195 | (4) |
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Back to the Future - From easyJet to People Express and Beyond |
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197 | (2) |
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199 | (2) |
| Chapter 7 Managing Business Growth |
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201 | (70) |
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A Conceptual Model of Market Growth and Capital Investment |
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203 | (3) |
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203 | (1) |
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204 | (2) |
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Formulation Guidelines for Portraying Feedback Structure |
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206 | (9) |
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Review of Operating Policies and Information Flows in the Market Growth Model |
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209 | (1) |
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209 | (1) |
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210 | (1) |
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211 | (1) |
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212 | (2) |
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214 | (1) |
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An Information Feedback View of Management and Policy |
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215 | (7) |
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Information Available to Decision Makers and Bounded Rationality |
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217 | (3) |
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Nature of Decision Making and the Decision Process |
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220 | (2) |
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Policy Structure and Formulations for Sales Growth |
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222 | (4) |
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Sales Force Hiring - Standard Stock Adjustment Formulation |
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223 | (1) |
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Sales Force Budgeting - Revenue Allocation and Information Smoothing |
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223 | (2) |
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Order Fulfilment - Standard Stock Depletion Formulation |
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225 | (1) |
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226 | (1) |
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Policy Structure and Formulations for Limits to Sales Growth |
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226 | (5) |
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Customer Response to Delivery Delay - Non-linear Graphical Converter |
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228 | (1) |
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Customers' Perception of Delivery Delay - Information Smoothing |
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229 | (1) |
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Order Fulfilment and Capacity Utilisation |
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229 | (2) |
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Policy Structure and Formulations for Capital Investment |
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231 | (6) |
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Assessment of Delivery Delay |
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232 | (1) |
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Goal Formation - Weighted Average of Adaptive and Static Goals |
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232 | (1) |
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Capacity Expansion - Fractional Asset Stock Adjustment |
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233 | (3) |
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Production Capacity - Two-Stage Stock Accumulation |
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236 | (1) |
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237 | (13) |
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Simulation of Sales Growth Loop |
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238 | (3) |
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Strength of Reinforcing Loop |
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241 | (1) |
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Simulation of Sales Growth and Customer Response Loops |
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242 | (4) |
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Simulation of the Complete Model with all Three Loops Active - The Base Case |
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246 | (4) |
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Redesign of the Investment Policy |
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250 | (6) |
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Top Management Optimism in Capital Investment |
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251 | (2) |
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High and Unyielding Standards - A Fixed Operating Goal for Delivery Delay |
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253 | (3) |
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Policy Design, Growth and Dynamic Complexity |
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256 | (10) |
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257 | (1) |
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Overview of Policy Structure |
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257 | (4) |
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Growth and Underinvestment at People Express? |
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261 | (1) |
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More Examples of Growth Strategies that Failed or Faltered - and One that Succeeded |
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262 | (2) |
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Growth Strategy for New Products and Services in a Competitive Industry |
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264 | (2) |
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Appendix Gain of a Reinforcing Loop |
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266 | (2) |
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268 | (3) |
| Chapter 8 Industry Dynamics - Oil Price and the Global Oil Producers |
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271 | (62) |
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Problem Articulation - Puzzling Dynamics of Oil Price |
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272 | (3) |
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Towards a Dynamic Hypothesis |
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274 | (1) |
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Model Development Process |
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275 | (3) |
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A Closer Look at the Stakeholders and Their Investment Decision Making |
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278 | (16) |
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Investment by the Independent Producers |
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279 | (1) |
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280 | (2) |
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Policy Structure and Formulations for Upstream Investment - Fractional Asset Stock Adjustment |
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282 | (2) |
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284 | (2) |
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286 | (2) |
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288 | (2) |
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290 | (1) |
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The Rise of Russian Oil - Incorporating Unforeseen Political Change |
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291 | (1) |
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The Shale Gale - Incorporating Unforeseen Technological Change |
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292 | (2) |
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Connecting the Pieces - A Feedback Systems View |
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294 | (6) |
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Two Invisible Hands and More |
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295 | (2) |
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297 | (1) |
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Webs of Intrigue - Inside OPEC's Opulent Bargaining Rooms |
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297 | (3) |
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A Simple Thought Experiment: Green Mindset and Global Recession |
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300 | (1) |
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Using the Model to Generate Scenarios |
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301 | (26) |
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Archive Scenario 1: 10-Year Supply Squeeze Followed by Supply Glut |
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301 | (5) |
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Archive Scenario 2: Quota Busting in a Green World |
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306 | (3) |
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Scenario from the Mid-1990s to 2020: Asian Boom with Quota Busting, Cautious Upstream Investment and Russian Oil |
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309 | (5) |
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A High Price Scenario from the Mid-1990s to 2020: How to Push Oil Price Over $60 per Barrel |
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314 | (3) |
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A 2010-2034 Scenario: Subdued Global Oil Economy with Shale Gale and OPEC Supply Boost |
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317 | (5) |
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Modified 2010-2034 Scenario: Subdued Global Oil Economy with Shale Gale and Punitive Saudi Supply Control |
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322 | (2) |
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2010-2034 Thought Experiment: Subdued Global Oil Economy with a Shale Gale and Mooted US Supply Control - The 'Saudi America' Hypothesis |
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324 | (3) |
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327 | (2) |
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Effect of Global Economy and Environment on Demand |
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327 | (1) |
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327 | (1) |
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Opportunists' Capacity Bias |
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328 | (1) |
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328 | (1) |
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328 | (1) |
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Time to Build Trust in Russia (in Oil World 1995 and 2010) |
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329 | (1) |
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Endnote: A Brief History of the Oil Producers' Project |
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329 | (2) |
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331 | (2) |
| Chapter 9 Public Sector Applications of Strategic Modelling |
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333 | (70) |
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Urban Dynamics - Growth and Stagnation in Cities |
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334 | (6) |
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Urban Model Conceptualisation |
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335 | (5) |
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Medical Workforce Dynamics and Patient Care |
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340 | (21) |
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341 | (1) |
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Medical Workforce Planning Model |
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342 | (4) |
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346 | (2) |
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Base Run - Changing Composition of the Medical Workforce |
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348 | (2) |
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Base Run - Quality of Patient Care |
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350 | (1) |
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Intangible Effects of the European Working Time Directive |
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351 | (1) |
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Modelling Junior Doctor Morale |
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351 | (2) |
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Overview of the Complete Model |
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353 | (1) |
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The Formulation of Work-Life Balance and Flexibility |
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354 | (1) |
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Simulations of the Complete Model |
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355 | (4) |
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Conclusions from the Medical Workforce Study |
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359 | (2) |
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Fishery Dynamics and Regulatory Policy |
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361 | (26) |
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361 | (2) |
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A Simple Harvested Fishery - Balancing Catch and Fish Regeneration |
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363 | (3) |
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A Harvested Fishery with Endogenous Investment - Coping with a Tipping Point |
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366 | (3) |
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Simulated Dynamics of a Harvested Fishery with Endogenous Investment |
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369 | (2) |
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Control and Regulation - Policy Design for Sustainable Fisheries |
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371 | (2) |
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Formulation of Deployment Policy |
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373 | (2) |
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Stock and Flow Equations for Ships at Sea, Ships in Harbour and Scrap Rate |
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375 | (1) |
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Simulated Dynamics of a Regulated Fishery - The Base Case |
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375 | (4) |
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Policy Design - A Higher Benchmark for Fish Density |
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379 | (2) |
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Dynamics of a Weakly Regulated Fishery |
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381 | (2) |
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Policy Design - Lower Exit Barriers Through Quicker Scrapping of Idle Ships |
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383 | (4) |
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Sustainability, Regulation and Self-Restraint |
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387 | (1) |
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387 | (1) |
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Appendix Alternative Simulation Approaches |
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388 | (10) |
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From Urban Dynamics to SimCity |
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389 | (1) |
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Discrete-event Simulation and System Dynamics |
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390 | (6) |
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Conclusions on Alternative Approaches to Simulation Modelling |
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396 | (2) |
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398 | (5) |
| Chapter 10 Model Validity, Mental Models and Learning |
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403 | (48) |
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Mental Models, Transitional Objects and Formal Models |
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404 | (2) |
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Models of Business and Social Systems |
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406 | (1) |
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Tests for Building Confidence in Models |
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407 | (3) |
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Model Confidence Building Tests in Action: A Case Study in Fast-moving Consumer Goods |
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410 | (2) |
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410 | (1) |
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411 | (1) |
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Model Structure Tests and the Soap Industry Model |
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412 | (10) |
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Boundary Adequacy and Structure Verification Tests Applied to a Simple Soap Model |
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413 | (3) |
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A Refined View of the Market |
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416 | (1) |
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Boundary Adequacy and Sector Map of the Complete Soap Industry Model |
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417 | (2) |
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Managerial Decision-making Processes in the Old English Bar Soap Company |
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419 | (1) |
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Managerial Decision-making Processes in Global Personal Care |
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420 | (1) |
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Managerial Decision-making Processes in Supermarkets |
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421 | (1) |
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Equation Formulation Tests and the Soap Industry Model |
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422 | (14) |
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Substitution of Bar Soap by Shower Gel |
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423 | (1) |
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Brand Switching Between Competing Bar Soap Products |
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424 | (4) |
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Model Behaviour Tests and Fit to Data |
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428 | (4) |
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Tests of Fit on Simulations of the Soap Industry Model - The Base Case |
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432 | (4) |
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Tests of Learning from Simulation |
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436 | (5) |
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Comparing Simulations with Expectations and Interpreting Surprise Behaviour |
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436 | (1) |
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Partial Model Simulations to Examine Pet Theories and Misconceptions |
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437 | (1) |
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438 | (1) |
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439 | (1) |
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Understanding Competitive Dynamics in Fast-moving Consumer Goods |
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439 | (2) |
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Summary of Confidence Building Tests |
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441 | (3) |
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Conclusion - Model Fidelity and Usefulness |
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444 | (3) |
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Endnote: The Loops of Feedback |
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447 | (2) |
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449 | (2) |
| About the Website Resources |
|
451 | (1) |
| Index |
|
452 | |
Lisainfo e-raamatute kohta