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E-raamat: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting

Edited by Frederic Vitart (Senior Research Scientist, European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), UK), Edited by Andrew Robertson (Senior Research Scientist, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Earth Institute, Columbia University, NY, USA)

Formaat: EPUB+DRM
Ilmumisaeg: 19-Oct-2018
Kirjastus: Elsevier Science Publishing Co Inc
Keel: eng
ISBN-13: 9780128117156

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Formaat: EPUB+DRM
Ilmumisaeg: 19-Oct-2018
Kirjastus: Elsevier Science Publishing Co Inc
Keel: eng
ISBN-13: 9780128117156

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The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions.

The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field.

Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications
Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field
Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making
Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages

Contributors

Preface

xiii

Acknowledgements

PART I SETTING THE SCENE

1 Introduction: Why Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (S2S)?

Frederic Vitart

Andrew W. Robertson

1 History of Numerical Weather and Climate Forecasting

(3)

2 Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Forecasting

(6)

3 Recent National and International Efforts on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction

(1)

4 Structure of This Book

(2)

2 Weather Forecasting: What Sets the Forecast Skill Horizon?

Zoltan Toth

Roberto Buizza

1 Introduction

(2)

2 The Basics of Numerical Weather Prediction

(6)

3 The Evolution of NWP Techniques

(10)

4 Enhancement of Predictable Signals

(2)

5 Ensemble Techniques: Brief Introduction

(4)

6 Expanding the Forecast Skill Horizon

(3)

7 Concluding Remarks: Lessons for S2S Forecasting

(1)

Acknowledgments

(2)

3 Weather Within Climate: Sub-seasonal Predictability of Tropical Daily Rainfall Characteristics

Vincent Moron

Andrew W. Robertson

Lei Wang

1 Introduction

(3)

2 Data and Methods

(1)

3 Results

(10)

4 Discussion and Concluding Remarks

(5)

4 Identifying Wave Processes Associated With Predictability Across Time Scales: An Empirical Normal Mode Approach

Gilbert Brunet

John Methven

1 Introduction

(2)

2 Partitioning Atmospheric Behavior Using its Conservation Properties

(10)

3 The ENM Approach to Observed Data and Models and its Relevance to S2S Dynamics and Predictability

(11)

4 Conclusion

(1)

Acknowledgments

(3)

PART II SOURCES OF S2S PREDICTABILITY

5 The Madden-Julian Oscillation

Steven J. Woolnough

1 Introduction

(1)

2 The Real-Time Multivariate MJO Index

(4)

3 Observed MJO Structure

(8)

4 The Relationship Between the MJO and Tropical and Extratropical Weather

106

(1)

5 Theories and Mechanisms for MJO Initiation, Maintenance, and Propagation

107

(2)

6 The Representation of the MJO in Weather and Climate Models

109

(1)

7 MJO Prediction

110

(6)

8 Future Priorities for MJO Research for S2S Prediction

116

(1)

Acknowledgments

117

(3)

6 Extratropical Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Oscillations and Multiple Regimes: The Dynamical Systems View

Michael Ghil

Andreas Groth

Dmitri Kondrashov

Andrew W. Robertson

1 Introduction and Motivation

120

(1)

2 Multiple Midlatitude Regimes and Low-Frequency Oscillations

121

(5)

3 Extratropical Oscillations in the S2S Band

126

(5)

4 Low-Order, Data-Driven Modeling, Dynamical Analysis, and Prediction

131

(9)

5 Concluding Remarks

140

(2)

Acknowledgments

142

(1)

7 Tropical-Extratropical Interactions and Teleconnections

Hai Lin

Jorgen Frederiksen

David Straus

Cristiana Stan

1 Introduction

143

(2)

2 Tropical Influence on the Extratropical Atmosphere

145

(7)

3 Extratropical Influence on the Tropics

152

(6)

4 Tropical-Extratropical, Two-Way Interactions

158

(4)

5 Summary and Discussion

162

(1)

Appendix. Technical Matters Relating to Section 4-2

163

(3)

8 Land Surface Processes Relevant to Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction

Paul A. Dirmeyer

Pierre Genttne

Michael B. Ek

Gianpaolo Balsamo

1 Introduction

166

(1)

2 Process of Land-Atmosphere Interaction

166

(4)

3 A Brief History of Land-Surface Models

170

(5)

4 Predictability and Prediction

175

(3)

5 Improving Land-Driven Prediction

178

(5)

9 Midlatitude Mesoscale Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction and its Relevance to S2S Prediction

R. Saravanan

P. Chang

1 Introduction

183

(3)

2 Data and Models

186

(3)

3 Mesoscale Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer

189

(1)

4 Local Tropospheric Response

190

(4)

5 Remote Tropospheric Response

194

(1)

6 Impact on Ocean Circulation

194

(3)

7 Implications for S2S Prediction

197

(2)

8 Summary and Conclusions

199

(1)

Acknowledgments

200

(2)

10 The Role of Sea Ice in Sub-seasonal Predictability

Matthieu Chevallier

Franqois Massonnet

Helge Goessling

Virginie Guemas

Thomas Jung

1 Introduction

202

(1)

2 Sea Ice in the Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean System

203

(3)

3 Sea Ice Distribution, Seasonality, and Variability

206

(2)

4 Sources of Sea Ice Predictability at the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Timescale

208

(5)

5 Sea Ice Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Predictability and Prediction Skill in Models

213

(5)

6 Impact of Sea Ice on Sub-seasonal Predictability

218

(2)

7 Concluding Remarks

220

(1)

Acknowledgments

221

(3)

11 Sub-seasonal Predictability and the Stratosphere

Amy Butler

Andrew Charlton-Perez

Daniela I.V. Domeisen

Chaim Garfinkel

Edwin P. Gerber

Peter Hitchcock

Alexey Yu. Karpechko

Amanda C. Maycock

Michael Sigmond

Isla Simpson

Seok-Woo Son

1 Introduction

224

(1)

2 Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling in the Tropics

225

(3)

3 Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling in the Extratropics

228

(6)

4 Predictability Related to Extratropical Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling

234

(4)

5 Summary and Outlook

238

(7)

PART III S2S MODELING AND FORECASTING

12 Forecast System Design, Configuration, and Complexity

Yuhei Takaya

1 Introduction

245

(2)

2 Requirements and Constraints of the Operational Sub-seasonal Forecast

247

(1)

3 Effect of Ensemble Size and Lagged Ensemble

248

(7)

4 Real-Time Forecast Configuration

255

(2)

5 Reforecast Configuration

257

(2)

6 Summary and Concluding Remarks

259

(1)

Acknowledgments

259

(2)

13 Ensemble Generation: The TIGGE and S2S Ensembles

Roberto Buizza

1 Global Sub-seasonal and Seasonal Prediction is an Initial Value Problem

261

(2)

2 Ensembles Provide More Complete and Valuable Information Than Single States

263

(5)

3 A Brief Introduction to Data Assimilation

268

(6)

4 A Brief Introduction to Model Uncertainty Simulation

274

(3)

5 An Overview of Operational, Global, Sub-seasonal, and Seasonal Ensembles, and Their Initialization and Generation Methods

277

(23)

6 Ensembles: Considerations About Their Future

300

(3)

7 Summary and Key Lessons

303

(2)

14 GCMs With Full Representation of Cloud Microphysics and Their MJO Simulations

In-Sik Kang

Min-Seop Ahn

Hiroaki Miura

Aneesh Subramanian

1 Introduction

305

(2)

2 Global CRM

307

(3)

3 Superparameterized GCM

310

(3)

4 GCM With Full Representation of Cloud Microphysics and Scale-Adaptive Convection

313

(5)

5 Summary and Conclusion

318

(1)

Acknowledgments

319

(2)

15 Forecast Recalibration and Multimodel Combination

Stefan Siegert

David B. Stephenson

1 Introduction

321

(3)

2 Statistical Methods for Forecast Recalibration

324

(1)

3 Regression Methods

325

(6)

4 Forecast Combination

331

(5)

5 Concluding Remarks

336

(1)

Acknowledgments

336

(2)

16 Forecast Verification for S2S Timescales

Caio A.S. Coelho

Barbara Brown

Laurie Wilson

Marion Mittermaier

Barbara Casati

1 Introduction

338

(2)

2 Factors Affecting the Design of Verification Studies

340

(1)

3 Observational References

341

(3)

4 Review of the Most Common Verification Measures

344

(10)

5 Types of S2S Forecasts and Current Verification Practices

354

(6)

6 Summary, Challenges, and Recommendations in S2S Verification

360

(6)

PART IV S2S APPLICATIONS

17 Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Weather Extremes

Frederic Vitart

Christopher Cunningham

Michael Deflorio

Emanuel Dutra

Laura Ferranti

Brian Golding

Debra Hudson

Charles Jones

Christophe Lavaysse

Joanne Robbins

Michael K. Tippett

1 Introduction

366

(1)

2 Prediction of Large-Scale, Long-Lasting Extreme Events

367

(6)

3 Prediction of Mesoscale Events

373

(11)

4 Display and Verification of Sub-seasonal Forecasts of Extreme Events

384

(2)

5 Conclusions

386

(1)

18 Pilot Experiences in Using Seamless Forecasts for Early Action: The "Ready-Set-Go!" Approach in the Red Cross

Juan Bazo

Roop Singh

Mathieu Destrcoper

Erin Coughlan De Perez

1 Introduction

387

(1)

2 Why Sub-seasonal?

388

(1)

3 Case Study: Peru El Nino

389

(5)

4 Reflections on the Use of S2S Forecasts

394

(1)

5 Conclusions

395

(5)

19 Communication and Dissemination of Forecasts and Engaging User Communities

Joanne Robbins

Christopher Cunningham

Rutger Dankers

Matthew Degennaro

Giovanni Dolif

Robyn Duell

Victor Marchezini

Brian Mills

Juan Pablo Sarmiento

Amber Silver

Rachel Trajber

Andrew Watkins

1 Introduction

400

(1)

2 Sector-Specific Methods and Practices in S2S Forecast Communication, Dissemination, and Engagement

400

(16)

3 Guiding Principles for Improved Communication Practices

416

(2)

4 Summary and Recommendations for Future Research

418

(4)

20 Seamless Prediction of Monsoon Onset and Active/Break Phases

A.K. Sahai

Rajib Chattopadhyay

Susmitha Joseph

Phani M. Krishna

D.R. Pattanaik

S. Abhilash

1 Introduction

422

(2)

2 Extended-Range Forecast of Monsoon Sub-seasonal Variability

424

(4)

3 Monsoon Onset and Identification of Active/Break Spells

428

(3)

4 Demonstration of Seamless Sub-seasonal Prediction

431

(6)

5 Conclusions

437

(1)

Acknowledgments

438

(2)

21 Lessons Learned in 25 Years of Informing Sectoral Decisions With Probabilistic Climate Forecasts

Rafael Terra

Walter E. Baethgen

1 Introduction

440

(1)

2 Learning and Understanding the Status Quo

441

(2)

3 Embedding a Probabilistic Climate Forecast Into Decisions

443

(3)

4 Examples

446

(7)

5 Final Remarks

453

(3)

22 Predicting Climate Impacts on Health at Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Timescales

Adrian M. Tompkins

Rachel Lowe

Hannah Nissan

Nadege Martiny

Pascal Roucou

Madeleine C. Thomson

Tetsuo Nakazawa

1 Introduction

456

(3)

2 Case Studies

459

(13)

3 Operationalization: Challenges and Opportunities

472

(4)

4 Outlook

476

(1)

Acknowledgments

477

(6)

23 Epilogue

Andrew W. Robertson

Frederic Vitart

References

483

(74)

Index

557

Dr Andrew Robertson is a Senior Research Scientist at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, part of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. He heads the IRI Climate Group and teaches as an adjunct professor at Columbia. Graduating with a PhD in atmospheric dynamics, he has over 30 years of experience in topics ranging from midlatitude meteorology, coupled ocean-atmosphere climate dynamics, sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting, downscaling, and tailoring of climate information for use in conjunction with sectoral models for climate adaptation and risk management. He has taught in capacity building training courses around the world. Frédéric Vitart is a Senior Research Scientist at the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). After graduating with a PhD in atmospheric and oceanic sciences from Princeton University, he joined ECMWF in 1998, where he leads the research on ensemble sub-seasonal forecasts. He has over 20 years of experience in sub-seasonal and seasonal prediction, couple ocean-atmosphere modeling, tropical and mid-latitude meteorology, tropical cyclone prediction. He is the author of over 100 publications in the peer-review literature and has taught in several training courses around the world.

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