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E-raamat: System Dynamics: Modelling and Simulation

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System Dynamics: Modelling and SimulationSuurem pilt
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This book covers the broad spectrum of system dynamics methodologies for the modelling and simulation of complex systems: systems thinking, causal diagrams, systems structure of stock and flow diagrams, parameter estimation and tests for confidence building in system dynamics models. It includes a comprehensive review of model validation and policy design and provides a practical presentation of system dynamics modelling. It also offers numerous worked-out examples and case studies in diverse fields using STELLA and VENSIM. The system dynamics methodologies presented here can be applied to nearly all areas of research and planning, and the simulations provided make the complicated issues more easily understandable. System Dynamics: Modelling and Simulation is an essential system dynamics and systems engineering textbook for undergraduate and graduate courses. It also offers an excellent reference guide for managersin industry and policy planners who wish to use modelling and simulation to manage complex systems more effectively, as well as researchers in the fields of modelling and simulation-based systems thinking.
Part I Concepts, Methodology and Techniques
1 Introduction
3(12)
1.1 Introduction to Complexity and Change of the Dynamic Systems
3(2)
1.2 Concepts of Systems and System Dynamics
5(1)
1.3 Open and Feedback Systems
5(3)
1.4 Modes of Behaviour of Dynamic Systems
8(1)
1.5 Models and Simulation
9(3)
1.6 Systems Thinking and Modelling
12(1)
1.7 Usefulness of Models
12(1)
1.8 Structure of the Book
13(2)
References
14(1)
Bibliography
14(1)
2 Systems Thinking: System Dynamics
15(22)
2.1 Introduction
15(1)
2.2 Systems Thinking Methodology
15(9)
2.2.1 Problem Identification
17(3)
2.2.2 Dynamic Hypothesis
20(1)
2.2.3 Causal Loop Diagram
21(1)
2.2.4 Stock-Flow Diagram
22(1)
2.2.5 Parameter Estimation
23(1)
2.2.6 Model Validation, Sensitivity Analysis and Policy Analysis
23(1)
2.2.7 Application of the Model
24(1)
2.3 Critical Aspects of Systems Thinking
24(1)
2.4 Participatory Systems Thinking
25(1)
2.5 Systems Thinking in Action
25(12)
2.5.1 Introduction
26(1)
2.5.2 Differential Equation Model and Stock-Flow Diagram
27(4)
2.5.3 Simulation and Policy Analysis
31(3)
References
34(1)
Bibliography
35(2)
3 Causal Loop Diagrams
37(16)
3.1 Introduction
37(1)
3.2 Causal Loop Diagrams
37(2)
3.3 Steps in Causal Loop Diagram
39(2)
3.4 Examples
41(12)
3.4.1 Population
41(1)
3.4.2 Carbon Metabolism in Green Plant
41(1)
3.4.3 Food Security
42(1)
3.4.4 Price Determination of a Commodity
43(2)
3.4.5 Fishery Dynamics
45(1)
3.4.6 Forest Dynamics
46(1)
3.4.7 Electricity Supply
47(1)
3.4.8 Global Warming
48(3)
References
51(1)
Bibliography
51(2)
4 Stock and Flow Diagram
53(66)
4.1 Introduction
53(1)
4.2 Stock
54(1)
4.3 How
55(1)
4.4 Converter
56(1)
4.5 Delays
57(2)
4.5.1 Role of Delay
57(1)
4.5.2 Choice of Delay Function
57(2)
4.6 Identification of Stock and Flow
59(1)
4.7 Mathematical Representation of Stock and Flow
59(3)
4.8 Solution Interval
62(1)
4.9 Functions Without Integration
62(4)
4.10 Functions Containing Integration
66(6)
4.10.1 Smooth
66(1)
4.10.2 Information Delay
67(2)
4.10.3 Material Delay
69(3)
4.11 Examples
72(47)
4.11.1 Population Model
72(3)
4.11.2 Grain Storage System
75(2)
4.11.3 Food Security Model
77(4)
4.11.4 Commodity Production Cycle Model
81(5)
4.11.5 Food Relief Model
86(3)
4.11.6 Crop Livestock Model
89(4)
4.11.7 Penaeid Shrimp Model
93(9)
4.11.8 Crop Irrigation Model
102(6)
4.11.9 Pollution Model
108(8)
References
116(2)
Bibliography
118(1)
5 Parameter Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis
119(14)
5.1 Introduction
119(1)
5.2 Parameter Estimation Techniques
119(1)
5.3 Estimation Using Disaggregated Data
120(4)
5.3.1 Table Functions
121(3)
5.4 Estimation Using Aggregated Data
124(3)
5.4.1 Estimation Using a Model Equation
124(3)
5.5 Estimation Using Multiple Equations
127(1)
5.6 Sensitivity Analysis
127(2)
5.7 Size of Solution Interval (DT)
129(4)
References
131(1)
Bibliography
132(1)
6 Tests for Confidence Building
133(16)
6.1 Introduction
133(2)
6.2 Tests of Model Structure
135(4)
6.2.1 Structure Verification Test
136(1)
6.2.2 Parameter Verification Test
136(1)
6.2.3 Extreme Condition Test
137(1)
6.2.4 Boundary Adequacy Test
137(1)
6.2.5 Dimensional Consistency Test
138(1)
6.3 Tests of Model Behaviour
139(5)
6.3.1 Behaviour Reproduction Test
139(1)
6.3.2 Behaviour Anomaly Test
140(1)
6.3.3 Behaviour Sensitivity Test
141(3)
6.4 Tests of Policy Implications
144(5)
6.4.1 Changed Behaviour Prediction Test
144(1)
6.4.2 Policy Sensitivity Test
145(3)
References
148(1)
Bibliography
148(1)
7 Scenario Planning and Modelling
149(16)
7.1 Introduction
149(1)
7.2 Scenario Planning and Modelling
150(1)
7.3 Participatory System Dynamics Modelling
151(3)
7.4 Participatory System Dynamics-Based Scenario Planning
154(2)
7.4.1 Simulation
156(1)
7.4.2 Scenario
156(1)
7.5 Steps in Scenario Planning
156(1)
7.6 Policy Planning for Different Development Strategies and Modelling
157(1)
7.7 Policy Planning for Implementation of the Development Strategy and Modelling
157(1)
7.8 Policy Design and Evaluation
157(1)
7.9 Some Examples of Scenario Planning and Modelling
158(7)
References
161(4)
Part II Cases and Applications
8 Modelling of Boom and Bust of Cocoa Production Systems in Malaysia
165(14)
8.1 Introduction
165(2)
8.2 Dynamic Hypothesis
167(1)
8.3 Causal Loop Diagrams
168(1)
8.4 Stock-Flow Model
168(4)
8.5 Model Validation
172(1)
8.6 Simulation and Policy Analysis
173(4)
8.7 Conclusion
177(2)
References
177(1)
Bibliography
178(1)
9 Modelling of Hilsa Fish (Tenualosa ilisha) Population in Bangladesh
179(20)
9.1 Introduction
179(2)
9.2 Dynamic Hypothesis
181(1)
9.3 Causal Loop Diagram
182(1)
9.4 Stock-Flow Diagram
183(4)
9.5 Model Validation
187(1)
9.6 Simulation and Policy Analysis
188(8)
9.7 Conclusions
196(3)
References
197(1)
Bibliography
198(1)
10 Modelling of Food Security in Malaysia
199(18)
10.1 Introduction
199(3)
10.2 Dynamic Hypothesis
202(1)
10.3 Causal Loop Diagram
202(1)
10.4 Stock--Flow Diagram
202(4)
10.5 Model Validation
206(1)
10.6 Simulation and Policy Analysis
207(7)
10.6.1 Subsidies for Agricultural Inputs
208(1)
10.6.2 Withdrawal of Input Subsidies
209(1)
10.6.3 Gradual Transition to Bio-fertilisers (50%)
209(2)
10.6.4 Gradual Transition to Bio-fertilisers (50 %) and R&D
211(1)
10.6.5 Gradual Transition to Bio-fertilisers (50 %), R&D and Training and Extension Services
212(1)
10.6.6 Gradual Transition to Bio-fertilisers (50 %), R&D, Training and Extension Services and Cropping Intensity (150 %)
213(1)
10.7 Conclusions
214(3)
References
215(1)
Bibliography
216(1)
11 Modelling of Supply Chain of Rice Milling Systems in Bangladesh
217(32)
11.1 Introduction
217(3)
11.2 Dynamic Hypothesis
220(1)
11.3 Causal Loop Diagram
220(2)
11.4 Stock-Flow Diagram
222(8)
11.4.1 Rice Milling Sector
222(4)
11.4.2 Wholesale Sector
226(2)
11.4.3 Retail Sector
228(2)
11.5 Model Validation
230(2)
11.6 Simulation and Policy Analysis
232(12)
11.7 Conclusion
244(5)
References
245(2)
Bibliography
247(2)
12 Modelling of Solid Waste Management Systems of Dhaka City in Bangladesh
249(26)
12.1 Introduction
249(3)
12.2 Dynamic Hypothesis
252(1)
12.3 Causal Loop Diagram
252(2)
12.4 Stock Flow Diagram
254(10)
12.4.1 Waste Management-Material Flow
257(3)
12.4.2 Waste Management: Composting, Incineration and Landfill
260(2)
12.4.3 Waste Management: Energy Flow and Emissions
262(2)
12.5 Model Validation
264(1)
12.6 Simulation and Policy Analysis
264(8)
12.7 Conclusions
272(3)
References
273(1)
Bibliography
274(1)
Index 275
Professor Bala has taught the courses on system dynamics and environmental systems for more than three decades to undergraduate and postgraduate students in agricultural engineering at Bangladesh Agricultural University and supervised more than a dozen of MS students and half dozen of PhD students who applied system dynamics in the fields of agriculture, aquaculture, energy and environment, climate change and socio-economic planning at the Institute of Agricultural and Food Policy Studies, Universiti Putra Malaysia and Bangladesh Agricultural University. Professor Bala contributed papers in system dynamics in the fields of agriculture, aquaculture, energy and environment, climate change and socio-economic planning and has published 197 papers in peer reviewed international journals. Professor Bala published seven books, of which two are in the areas of system dynamics. These two books in the areas of system dynamics are: (i) Principles of system Dynamics (Agrotech PublishingAcademy, Udaipur, India) and (ii) Energy and Environment: Modeling and Simulation (Nova Science Publishers, USA). Professor Bala has provided consultancy and conducted research projects funded by international and local sources. Professor Fatimah has a vast research experience on agricultural marketing and policy issues in Malaysia. She has carried out research on the following areas: marketing, price analysis, food security, structure-conduct-performance of selected Malaysian agricultural crops as well as agricultural policy evaluation. She teaches agricultural marketing, research methodology both for undergraduate and post-graduate levels at the Faculty of Economics and Management, Universiti Putra Malaysia (UPM). She was the Director of the Institute of Agricultural and Food Policy Studies, UPM (2005-2014). She has led a team of researchers to develop an econometric model of forecasting and simulation model of the agriculture sector for the Economic PlanningUnit, Prime Minister Department, Malaysia. She is also involved in the development of a system dynamics model (T21 model) for the Malaysian economy under the collaboration of the Economic Planning Unit and Millennium Institute, Washington. She is prolific in publications. She has written a total of 20 books, 49 chapters, 34 research reports, 74 journal articles, more than five hundreds of papers in proceedings, and seminars/conferences. She has received research grants from various sources and these include both international and local sources. Associate Professor Kusairi Moohd Noh is currently the Head, Bio-resource and Environmental Policy Laboratory, Institute of Agricultural and Food Policy Studies, Universiti Putra Malaysia. His specialisation is in the field of natural resource economics particularly in fisheries economics. He has a total of 40 years of research and consultancy experience in this field where he has received grants from both the international and local agencies.
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