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E-raamat: Trade-off Analytics: Creating and Exploring the System Tradespace

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Presents information to create a trade-off analysis framework for use in government and commercial acquisition environments

This book presents a decision management process based on decision theory and cost analysis best practices aligned with the ISO/IEC 15288, the Systems Engineering Handbook, and the Systems Engineering Body of Knowledge. It provides a sound trade-off analysis framework to generate the tradespace and evaluate value and risk to support system decision-making throughout the life cycle. Trade-off analysis and risk analysis techniques are examined. The authors present an integrated value trade-off and risk analysis framework based on decision theory. These trade-off analysis concepts are illustrated in the different life cycle stages using multiple examples from defense and commercial domains.

  • Provides techniques to identify and structure stakeholder objectives and creative, doable alternatives
  • Presents the advantages and disadvantages of tradespace creation and exploration techniques for trade-off analysis of concepts, architectures, design, operations, and retirement
  • Covers the sources of uncertainty in the system life cycle and examines how to identify, assess, and model uncertainty using probability
  • Illustrates how to perform a trade-off analysis using the INCOSE Decision Management Process using both deterministic and probabilistic techniques 

Trade-off Analytics:  Creating and Exploring the System Tradespace is written for upper undergraduate students and graduate students studying systems design, systems engineering, industrial engineering and engineering management. This book also serves as a resource for practicing systems designers, systems engineers, project managers, and engineering managers.


Gregory S. Parnell, PhD, is a Research Professor in the Department of Industrial Engineering at the University of Arkansas. He is also a senior principal with Innovative Decisions, Inc., a decision and risk analysis firm and has served as Chairman of the Board. Dr. Parnell has published more than 100 papers and book chapters and was lead editor of Decision Making for Systems Engineering and Management, Wiley Series in Systems Engineering (2nd Ed, Wiley 2011) and lead author of the Handbook of Decision Analysis (Wiley 2013).  He is a fellow of INFORMS, the INCOSE, MORS, and the Society for Decision Professionals.

List of Contributors xix
About the Authors xxi
Foreword xxxi
Preface xxxiii
Acknowledgments xli
About the Companion Website xlv
1 Introduction to Trade-off Analysis 1(28)
Gregory S. Parnell
Matthew Cilli
Azad M. Madni
Garry Roedler
1.1 Introduction
2(1)
1.2 Trade-off Analyses Throughout the Life Cycle
3(1)
1.3 Trade-off Analysis to Identify System Value
3(3)
1.4 Trade-off Analysis to Identify System Uncertainties and Risks
6(1)
1.5 Trade-off Analyses can Integrate Value and Risk Analysis
6(2)
1.6 Trade-off Analysis in the Systems Engineering Decision Management Process
8(1)
1.7 Trade-off Analysis Mistakes of Omission and Commission
9(11)
1.7.1 Mistakes of Omission
12(3)
1.7.2 Mistakes of Commission
15(3)
1.7.3 Impacts of the Trade-Off Analysis Mistakes
18(2)
1.8 Overview of the Book
20(4)
1.8.1 Illustrative Examples and Techniques Used in the Book
24(1)
1.9 Key Terms
24(1)
1.10 Exercises
25(1)
References
26(3)
2 A Conceptual Framework and Mathematical Foundation for Trade-Off Analysis 29(22)
Gregory S. Parnell
Azad M. Madni
Robert F. Bordley
2.1 Introduction
29(1)
2.2 Trade-Off Analysis Terms
30(1)
2.3 Influence Diagram of the Tradespace
31(15)
2.3.1 Stakeholder Needs, System Functions, and Requirements
33(1)
2.3.2 Objectives
33(1)
2.3.3 System Alternatives
34(2)
2.3.4 Uncertainty
36(1)
2.3.5 Preferences and Evaluation of Alternatives
37(7)
2.3.6 Resource Analysis
44(1)
2.3.7 An Integrated Trade-Off Analyses
44(2)
2.4 Tradespace Exploration
46(1)
2.5 Summary
46(1)
2.6 Key Words
47(1)
2.7 Exercises
48(1)
References
48(3)
3 Quantifying Uncertainty 51(40)
Robert F. Bordley
3.1 Sources of Uncertainty in Systems Engineering
51(1)
3.2 The Rules of Probability and Human Intuition
52(4)
3.3 Probability Distributions
56(10)
3.3.1 Calculating Probabilities from Experiments
56(2)
3.3.2 Calculating Complex Probabilities from Simpler Probabilities
58(1)
3.3.3 Calculating Probabilities Using Parametric Distributions
59(3)
3.3.4 Applications of Parametric Probability Distributions
62(4)
3.4 Estimating Probabilities
66(6)
3.4.1 Using Historical Data
66(2)
3.4.2 Using Human Judgment
68(2)
3.4.3 Biases in Judgment
70(2)
3.5 Modeling Using Probability
72(9)
3.5.1 Bayes Nets
72(3)
3.5.2 Monte Carlo Simulation
75(1)
3.5.3 Monte Carlo Simulation with Dependent Uncertainties
76(1)
3.5.4 Monte Carlo Simulation with Partial Information on Output Values
77(1)
3.5.5 Variations on Monte Carlo Simulation
78(1)
3.5.6 Sensitivity Analysis
78(3)
3.6 Summary
81(1)
3.7 Key Terms
81(2)
3.8 Exercises
83(3)
References
86(5)
4 Analyzing Resources 91(64)
Edward A. Pohl
Simon R. Goerger
Kirk Michealson
4.1 Introduction
91(1)
4.2 Resources
92(7)
4.2.1 People
92(3)
4.2.2 Facilities
95(1)
4.2.3 Costs
95(4)
4.2.4 Resource Space
99(1)
4.3 Cost Analysis
99(36)
4.3.1 Cost Estimation
102(6)
4.3.2 Cost Estimation Techniques
108(12)
4.3.3 Learning Curves
120(5)
4.3.4 Net Present Value
125(5)
4.3.5 Monte Carlo Simulation
130(4)
4.3.6 Sensitivity Analysis
134(1)
4.4 Affordability Analysis
135(12)
4.4.1 Background
136(1)
4.4.2 The Basics of Affordability Analysis Are Not Difficult
137(1)
4.4.3 DoD Comparison of Cost Analysis and Affordability Analysis
138(1)
4.4.4 Affordability Analysis Definitions
139(2)
4.4.5 "Big A" Affordability Analysis Process Guide
141(6)
4.5 Key Terms
147(2)
4.6 Excercises
149(3)
References
152(3)
5 Understanding Decision Management 155(48)
Matthew Cilli
Gregory S. Parnell
5.1 Introduction
155(1)
5.2 Decision Process Context
156(1)
5.3 Decision Process Activities
157(42)
5.3.1 Frame Decision
159(4)
5.3.2 Develop Objectives and Measures
163(8)
5.3.3 Generate Creative Alternatives
171(9)
5.3.4 Assess Alternatives via Deterministic Analysis
180(3)
5.3.5 Synthesize Results
183(4)
5.3.6 Develop Multidimensional Value Model
187(3)
5.3.7 Identify Uncertainty and Conduct Probabilistic Analysis
190(2)
5.3.8 Assess Impact of Uncertainty
192(4)
5.3.9 Improve Alternatives
196(1)
5.3.10 Communicating Trade-Offs
197(1)
5.3.11 Present Recommendation and Implementation Plan
197(2)
5.4 Summary
199(1)
5.5 Key Terms
199(1)
5.6 Exercises
200(1)
References
201(2)
6 Identifying Opportunities 203(30)
Donna H. Rhodes
Simon R. Goerger
6.1 Introduction
203(2)
6.2 Knowledge
205(2)
6.2.1 Domain Knowledge
205(1)
6.2.2 Technical Knowledge
205(1)
6.2.3 Business Knowledge
205(1)
6.2.4 Expert Knowledge
206(1)
6.2.5 Stakeholder Knowledge
206(1)
6.3 Decision Traps
207(3)
6.4 Techniques
210(9)
6.4.1 Interviews
210(3)
6.4.2 Focus Groups
213(2)
6.4.3 Surveys
215(4)
6.5 Tools
219(4)
6.5.1 Concept Map
219(1)
6.5.2 System Boundary
220(1)
6.5.3 Decision Hierarchy
220(1)
6.5.4 Issues List
221(1)
6.5.5 Vision Statement
221(1)
6.5.6 Influence Diagram
222(1)
6.5.7 Selecting Appropriate Tools and Techniques
223(1)
6.6 Illustrative Examples
223(5)
6.6.1 Commercial
223(3)
6.6.2 Defense
226(2)
6.7 Key Terms
228(2)
6.8 Exercises
230(1)
References
230(3)
7 Identifying Objectives and Value Measures 233(24)
Gregory S. Parnell
William D. Miller
7.1 Introduction
233(1)
7.2 Value-Focused Thinking
234(2)
7.2.1 Four Major VFT Ideas
235(1)
7.2.2 Benefits of VFT
235(1)
7.3 Shareholder and Stakeholder Value
236(2)
7.3.1 Private Company Example
237(1)
7.3.2 Government Agency Example
237(1)
7.4 Challenges in Identifying Objectives
238(1)
7.5 Identifying the Decision Objectives
239(2)
7.5.1 Questions to Help Identify Decision Objectives
239(1)
7.5.2 How to Get Answers to the Questions
240(1)
7.6 The Financial or Cost Objective
241(2)
7.6.1 Financial Objectives for Private Companies
241(1)
7.6.2 Cost Objective for Public Organizations
242(1)
7.7 Developing Value Measures
243(1)
7.8 Structuring Multiple Objectives
243(5)
7.8.1 Value Hierarchies
244(1)
7.8.2 Techniques for Developing Value Hierarchies
245(2)
7.8.3 Value Hierarchy Best Practices
247(1)
7.8.4 Cautions about Cost and Risk Objectives
248(1)
7.9 Illustrative Examples
248(2)
7.9.1 Military Illustrative Example
248(2)
7.9.2 Homeland Security Illustrative Example
250(1)
7.10 Summary
250(2)
7.11 Key Terms
252(1)
7.12 Exercises
253(2)
References
255(2)
8 Developing And Evaluating Alternatives 257(40)
C. Robert Kenley
Clifford Whitcomb
Gregory S. Parnell
8.1 Introduction
257(1)
8.2 Overview of Decision-making, Creativity, and Teams
258(5)
8.2.1 Approaches to Decision-Making
258(2)
8.2.2 Cognitive Methods for Creating Alternatives
260(1)
8.2.3 Key Concepts for Building and Operating Teams
260(3)
8.3 Alternative Development Techniques
263(12)
8.3.1 Structured Creativity Methods
263(3)
8.3.2 Morphological Box
266(4)
8.3.3 Pugh Method for Alternative Generation
270(1)
8.3.4 TRIZ for Alternative Development
271(4)
8.4 Assessment of Alternative Development Techniques
275(1)
8.5 Alternative Evaluation Techniques
276(14)
8.5.1 Decision-Theory-Based Approaches
276(1)
8.5.2 Pugh Method for Alternative Evaluation
276(1)
8.5.3 Axiomatic Approach to Design (AAD)
277(3)
8.5.4 TRIZ for Alternative Evaluation
280(1)
8.5.5 Design of Experiments (DOE)
280(2)
8.5.6 Taguchi Approach
282(1)
8.5.7 Quality Function Deployment (QFD)
283(4)
8.5.8 Analytic Hierarchy Process AHP
287(3)
8.6 Assessment of Alternative Evaluation Techniques
290(1)
8.7 Key Terms
290(1)
8.8 Exercises
290(3)
References
293(4)
9 An Integrated Model for Trade-Off Analysis 297(40)
Alexander D. MacCalman
Gregory S. Parnell
Sam Savage
9.1 Introduction
297(1)
9.2 Conceptual Design Example
298(2)
9.3 Integrated Approach Influence Diagram
300(22)
9.3.1 Decision Nodes
300(3)
9.3.2 Uncertainty Nodes
303(7)
9.3.3 Constant Node
310(4)
9.3.4 Value Nodes
314(8)
9.4 Other Types of Trade-Off Analysis
322(1)
9.5 Simulation Tools
322(7)
9.5.1 Monte Carlo Simulation Proprietary Add-Ins
324(1)
9.5.2 The Discipline of Probability Management
324(1)
9.5.3 SIPmath™ Tool in Native Excel
324(1)
9.5.4 Model Building Steps
325(4)
9.6 Summary
329(1)
9.7 Key Terms
330(1)
9.8 Exercises
331(4)
References
335(2)
10 Exploring Concept Trade-Offs 337(40)
Azad M. Madni
Adam M. Ross
10.1 Introduction
337(8)
10.1.1 Key Concepts, Concept Trade-Offs, and Concept Exploration
341(4)
10.2 Defining the Concept Space and System Concept of Operations
345(1)
10.3 Exploring the Concept Space
346(2)
10.3.1 Storytelling-Enabled Tradespace Exploration
346(1)
10.3.2 Decisions and Outcomes
347(1)
10.3.3 Contingent Decision-Making
347(1)
10.4 Trade-off Analysis Frameworks
348(1)
10.5 Tradespace and System Design Life Cycle
349(2)
10.6 From Point Trade-offs to Tradespace Exploration
351(1)
10.7 Value-based Multiattribute Tradespace Analysis
351(8)
10.7.1 Tradespace Exploration and Sensitivity Analysis
353(1)
10.7.2 Tradespace Exploration and Uncertainty
354(2)
10.7.3 Tradespace Exploration with Spiral Development
356(1)
10.7.4 Tradespace Exploration in Relation to Optimization and Decision Theory
356(3)
10.8 Illustrative Example
359(10)
10.8.1 Step 1: Determine Key Decision-Makers
359(1)
10.8.2 Step 2: Scope and Bound the Mission
360(1)
10.8.3 Step 3: Elicit Attributes and Utilities (Preference Capture)
360(2)
10.8.4 Step 4: Define Design Vector Elements (Concept Generation)
362(1)
10.8.5 Step 5: Develop Model(s) (Evaluation)
362(2)
10.8.6 Step 6: Generate the Tradespace (Computation)
364(1)
10.8.7 Step 7: Explore the Tradespace (Analysis and Synthesis)
365(4)
10.9 Conclusions
369(2)
10.10 Key Terms
371(1)
10.11 Exercises
372(1)
References
372(5)
11 Architecture Evaluation Framework 377(28)
James N. Martin
11.1 Introduction
377(8)
11.1.1 Architecture in the Decision Space
378(1)
11.1.2 Architecture Evaluation
379(1)
11.1.3 Architecture Views and Viewpoints
380(2)
11.1.4 Stakeholders
382(1)
11.1.5 Stakeholder Concerns
382(1)
11.1.6 Architecture versus Design
383(1)
11.1.7 On the Uses of Architecture
384(1)
11.1.8 Standardizing on an Architecture Evaluation Strategy
384(1)
11.2 Key Considerations in Evaluating Architectures
385(4)
11.2.1 Plan-Driven Evaluation Effort
386(1)
11.2.2 Objectives-Driven Evaluation
387(1)
11.2.3 Assessment versus Analysis
387(2)
11.3 Architecture Evaluation Elements
389(7)
11.3.1 Architecture Evaluation Approach
389(1)
11.3.2 Architecture Evaluation Objectives
390(1)
11.3.3 Evaluation Approach Examples
391(1)
11.3.4 Value Assessment Methods
391(2)
11.3.5 Value Assessment Criteria
393(1)
11.3.6 Architecture Analysis Methods
394(2)
11.4 Steps in an Architecture Evaluation Process
396(2)
11.5 Example Evaluation Taxonomy
398(2)
11.5.1 Business Impact Factors
398(1)
11.5.2 Mission Impact Factors
398(1)
11.5.3 Architecture Attributes
399(1)
11.6 Summary
400(1)
11.7 Key Terms
400(2)
11.8 Exercises
402(1)
References
402(3)
12 Exploring the Design Space 405(32)
Clifford Whitcomb
Paul Beery
12.1 Introduction
405(1)
12.2 Example 1: Liftboat
406(5)
12.2.1 Liftboat Fractional Factorial Design of Experiments
406(3)
12.2.2 Liftboat Design Trade-Off Space
409(2)
12.2.3 Liftboat Uncertainty Analysis
411(1)
12.2.4 Liftboat Example Summary
411(1)
12.3 Example 2: Cruise Ship Design
411(6)
12.3.1 Cruise Ship Taguchi Design of Experiments
411(1)
12.3.2 Cruise Ship Design Trade-Off Space
412(4)
12.3.3 Cruise Ship Example Summary
416(1)
12.4 Example 3: NATO Naval Surface Combatant Ship
417(14)
12.4.1 NATO Surface Combatant Ship Stakeholder Need
418(2)
12.4.2 NATO Surface Combatant Ship Box-Behnken Design of Experiments
420(1)
12.4.3 NATO Surface Combatant Ship Cost-Effectiveness Trade-Off
421(1)
12.4.4 NATO Surface Combatant Ship Design Tradespace
421(1)
12.4.5 NATO Surface Combatant Ship Design Trade-Off
422(8)
12.4.6 NATO Surface Combatant Ship Trade-Off Summary
430(1)
12.5 Key Terms
431(2)
12.6 Exercises
433(2)
References
435(2)
13 Sustainment Related Models And Trade Studies 437(46)
John E. MacCarthy
Andres Vargas
13.1 Introduction
437(2)
13.2 Availability Modeling and Trade Studies
439(15)
13.2.1 FMDS Background
439(10)
13.2.2 FMDS Availability Trade Studies
449(4)
13.2.3 Section Synopsis
453(1)
13.3 Sustainment Life Cycle Cost Modeling and Trade Studies
454(10)
13.3.1 The Total System Life Cycle Model
454(2)
13.3.2 The O&S Cost Model
456(3)
13.3.3 Life Cycle Cost Trade Study
459(5)
13.4 Optimization in Availability Trade Studies
464(7)
13.4.1 Setting Up the Optimization Problem
464(1)
13.4.2 Instantiating the Optimization Model
465(3)
13.4.3 Discussion of the Optimization Model Results
468(1)
13.4.4 Deterministic Sensitivity Analysis
469(2)
13.5 Monte Carlo Modeling
471(4)
13.5.1 Input Probability Distributions for the Monte Carlo Model
471(1)
13.5.2 Monte Carlo Simulation Results
472(1)
13.5.3 Stochastic Sensitivity Analysis
473(2)
13.6
Chapter Summary
475(1)
13.7 Key Terms
476(2)
13.8 Exercises
478(4)
References
482(1)
14 Performing Programmatic Trade-Off Analyses 483(88)
Gina Guillaume-Joseph
John E. MacCarthy
14.1 Introduction
483(2)
14.2 System Acceptance Decisions and Trade Studies
485(27)
14.2.1 Acceptance Decision Framework
486(5)
14.2.2 Calculating the Confidence That a System Is "Good"
491(2)
14.2.3 Acceptance Test Design and Trade Studies
493(6)
14.2.4 A "Delay, Fix, and Test" Cost Model
499(5)
14.2.5 The Integrated Decision Model
504(7)
14.2.6 Conclusions
511(1)
14.3 Product Cancelation Decision Trade Study
512(26)
14.3.1 Introduction
512(1)
14.3.2 Significance
513(1)
14.3.3 Defining Failure
514(5)
14.3.4 Developing the Predictive Model
519(3)
14.3.5 Research Results
522(6)
14.3.6 Model Implementation In Industry
528(2)
14.3.7 Predictive Model Deployment in Industry
530(6)
14.3.8 When the Decision Has Been Made to Cancel the System
536(1)
14.3.9 Conclusion
537(1)
14.4 Product Retirement Decision Trade Study
538(24)
14.4.1 Introduction
538(1)
14.4.2 Legacy HR Systems
539(5)
14.4.3 The US NAVY Retirement and Decommission Program for Nuclear-Powered Vessels
544(7)
14.4.4 Decision Analysis for Decommissioning Offshore Oil and Gas Platforms in California
551(8)
14.4.5 System Retirement and Decommissioning Strategy
559(2)
14.4.6 Conclusion
561(1)
14.5 Key Terms
562(2)
14.6 Exercises
564(2)
References
566(5)
15 Summary And Future Trends 571(12)
Gregory S. Parnell
Simon R. Goerger
15.1 Introduction
571(1)
15.2 Major Trade-Off Analysis Themes
572(4)
15.2.1 Use Standard Systems Engineering Terminology
572(1)
15.2.2 Avoid the Mistakes of Omission and Commission
572(1)
15.2.3 Use a Decision Management Framework
572(1)
15.2.4 Use Decision Analysis as the Mathematical Foundation
573(1)
15.2.5 Explicitly Define the Decision Opportunity
573(1)
15.2.6 Identify and Structure Decision Objectives and Measures
574(1)
15.2.7 Identify Creative, Doable Alternatives
574(1)
15.2.8 Use the Most Appropriate Modeling and Simulation Technique for the Life Cycle Stage
575(1)
15.2.9 Include Resource Analysis in the Trade-Off Analysis
575(1)
15.2.10 Explicitly Consider Uncertainty
575(1)
15.2.11 Identify the Cost, Value, Schedule, and Risk Drivers
575(1)
15.2.12 Provide an Integrated Framework for Cost, Value, and Risk Analyses
576(1)
15.3 Future of Trade-Off Analysis
576(5)
15.3.1 Education and Training of Systems Engineers
577(1)
15.3.2 Systems Engineering Methodologies and Tools
577(3)
15.3.3 Emergent Tradespace Factors
580(1)
15.4 Summary
581(1)
References
581(2)
Index 583
Gregory S. Parnell, Ph.D, is a Research Professor in the Department of Industrial Engineering at the University of Arkansas. He is also a senior principal with Innovative Decisions, Inc., a decision and risk analysis firm and has served as Chairman of the Board. Dr. Parnell has published more than 100 papers and book chapters and was lead editor of Decision Making for Systems Engineering and Management, Wiley Series in Systems Engineering (2nd Ed, Wiley 2011) and lead author of the Handbook of Decision Analysis (Wiley 2013). He is a fellow of INFORMS, INCOSE, MORS, and the Society for Decision Professionals.
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