Preface |
|
xi | |
|
Chapter 1 Climate Change in the Public Sphere |
|
|
3 | (10) |
|
1.1 Communicating about climate change |
|
|
5 | (3) |
|
1.2 The state of the science |
|
|
8 | (2) |
|
1.3 Responding to climate change: Mitigation and adaptation |
|
|
10 | (1) |
|
1.4 Governing climate change |
|
|
10 | (1) |
|
1.5 The scale of the challenge: Accelerating action on climate change |
|
|
11 | (1) |
|
|
12 | (1) |
|
Chapter 2 Basic System Dynamics |
|
|
13 | (26) |
|
|
14 | (10) |
|
2.1.1 System parts and interactions |
|
|
14 | (1) |
|
|
15 | (4) |
|
|
19 | (3) |
|
|
22 | (1) |
|
2.1.5 Function or purpose |
|
|
23 | (1) |
|
2.2 Earth's climate system: The parts and interconnections |
|
|
24 | (13) |
|
2.2.1 Atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, geosphere, and anthroposphere |
|
|
24 | (9) |
|
2.2.2 Energy flows: The ins and outs of Earths energy budget |
|
|
33 | (4) |
|
2.3 Integrating systems, science, and policy |
|
|
37 | (2) |
|
Chapter 3 Climate Controls: Energy from the Sun |
|
|
39 | (20) |
|
3.1 Incoming solar radiation |
|
|
40 | (6) |
|
3.1.1 Blackbody radiation: The Sun versus Earth |
|
|
40 | (5) |
|
3.1.2 Our place in space: The Goldilocks planet |
|
|
45 | (1) |
|
|
46 | (11) |
|
3.2.1 4.5 billion years of solar energy |
|
|
47 | (2) |
|
3.2.2 Orbital controls: Baseline variability in the past few million years |
|
|
49 | (6) |
|
3.2.3 Sunspots: How important? |
|
|
55 | (2) |
|
|
57 | (2) |
|
Chapter 4 Climate Controls: Earth's Reflectivity |
|
|
59 | (18) |
|
|
61 | (11) |
|
4.1.1 At Earth's surface: Ice, water, and vegetation |
|
|
61 | (6) |
|
4.1.2 In the atmosphere: Aerosols and clouds |
|
|
67 | (5) |
|
4.2 Anthropogenic variability |
|
|
72 | (3) |
|
|
72 | (1) |
|
4.2.2 Anthropogenic aerosols |
|
|
73 | (2) |
|
|
75 | (2) |
|
Chapter 5 Climate Controls: The Greenhouse Effect |
|
|
77 | (22) |
|
5.1 How does the greenhouse effect work? |
|
|
79 | (6) |
|
5.1.1 Characteristics of a good greenhouse gas |
|
|
79 | (4) |
|
5.7.2 Energy flows in a greenhouse world |
|
|
83 | (2) |
|
5.2 The unperturbed carbon cycle and natural greenhouse variability |
|
|
85 | (9) |
|
5.2.1 Carbon stocks andflows |
|
|
85 | (1) |
|
5.2.2 Time scales of natural greenhouse variability |
|
|
86 | (5) |
|
5.2.3 Feedbacks in volving the greenhouse effect |
|
|
91 | (3) |
|
5.3 Anthropogenic interference |
|
|
94 | (5) |
|
5.3.1 Perturbed stocks, flows, and chemical fingerprints |
|
|
94 | (2) |
|
5.3.2 Cumulative carbon emissions: A budget |
|
|
96 | (3) |
|
Chapter 6 Climate Change Mitigation: Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Transforming the Energy System |
|
|
99 | (24) |
|
6.1 The global energy system |
|
|
102 | (2) |
|
6.2 Mitigation strategies |
|
|
104 | (13) |
|
6.2.1 Demand-side mitigation: Energy efficiency and conservation |
|
|
104 | (3) |
|
6.2.2 Supply-side mitigation: Renewable energy and nuclear power |
|
|
107 | (8) |
|
6.2.3 Carbon capture and storage |
|
|
115 | (2) |
|
6.3 Decarbonization in key sectors |
|
|
117 | (5) |
|
|
117 | (1) |
|
|
118 | (3) |
|
|
121 | (1) |
|
6.4 Fostering accelerated and transformative mitigation |
|
|
122 | (1) |
|
|
123 | (18) |
|
|
125 | (7) |
|
7.1.1 Physical principles |
|
|
125 | (1) |
|
7.1.2 The role of observations |
|
|
126 | (1) |
|
|
127 | (2) |
|
|
129 | (1) |
|
7.1.5 Testing climate models |
|
|
130 | (1) |
|
7.1.6 Climate model output and comparisons |
|
|
131 | (1) |
|
7.2 Types of climate models |
|
|
132 | (6) |
|
7.2.1 Energy balance models |
|
|
132 | (3) |
|
7.2.2 Earth system models of intermediate complexity |
|
|
135 | (1) |
|
7.2.3 General circulation models |
|
|
136 | (1) |
|
7.2.4 Regional climate models |
|
|
137 | (1) |
|
7.2.5 Integrated assessment models |
|
|
138 | (1) |
|
7.3 Certainties and uncertainties |
|
|
138 | (3) |
|
Chapter 8 Future Climate: Emissions, Climatic Shifts, and What to Do about Them |
|
|
141 | (18) |
|
8.1 Scenarios: How to tell stories about the future |
|
|
143 | (5) |
|
8.1.1 SRES scenario "families" and storylines |
|
|
144 | (3) |
|
8.1.2 Post-SRES: Representative concentration pathways |
|
|
147 | (1) |
|
8.2 Global warming of 1.5°C |
|
|
148 | (1) |
|
8.3 The global climate in 2100 |
|
|
149 | (7) |
|
8.3.1 Temperature, precipitation, sea-level rise, and extreme weather |
|
|
149 | (6) |
|
|
155 | (1) |
|
|
156 | (1) |
|
8.5 The scale of the challenge: Transforming emissions pathways |
|
|
157 | (2) |
|
Chapter 9 Impacts of Climate Change on Natural Systems |
|
|
159 | (16) |
|
|
162 | (7) |
|
|
162 | (4) |
|
9.1.2 Impacts in the oceans |
|
|
166 | (3) |
|
9.2 Adaptation in natural systems |
|
|
169 | (4) |
|
9.2.1 The important role of biodiversity |
|
|
170 | (1) |
|
9.2.2 Evaluating ecosystem services |
|
|
171 | (1) |
|
9.2.3 Preserving species and ecosystems |
|
|
172 | (1) |
|
|
173 | (2) |
|
Chapter 10 Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Human Systems |
|
|
175 | (20) |
|
|
176 | (1) |
|
10.2 Key concepts in climate change impacts and adaptation |
|
|
177 | (4) |
|
10.3 Observed and projected impacts of climate change |
|
|
181 | (7) |
|
10.3.1 Impacts on water and food |
|
|
181 | (2) |
|
10.3.2 Impacts on cities and infrastructure |
|
|
183 | (3) |
|
10.3.3 Equity implications: Health and the global distribution of wealth |
|
|
186 | (2) |
|
10.4 Adaptation in human systems |
|
|
188 | (7) |
|
10.4.1 How to "do" adaptation |
|
|
188 | (2) |
|
10.4.2 Adaptation in urban settlements |
|
|
190 | (5) |
|
Chapter 11 Climate Change Policy and Governance |
|
|
195 | (24) |
|
11.1 Introduction to governing climate change |
|
|
196 | (1) |
|
|
197 | (2) |
|
11.3 Policy goals: Choosing the right mix of adaptation and mitigation |
|
|
199 | (1) |
|
11.4 Reducing greenhouse gas emissions: An overview of targets and baselines |
|
|
200 | (2) |
|
11.5 Global governance of climate change: The basics |
|
|
202 | (4) |
|
11.5.1 The United Nations Environment Programme (UN Environment) |
|
|
202 | (1) |
|
11.5.2 The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol |
|
|
203 | (2) |
|
11.5.3 International treaties moving forward: The Paris Agreement |
|
|
205 | (1) |
|
11.6 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |
|
|
206 | (2) |
|
11.7 National and subnational climate change mitigation |
|
|
208 | (4) |
|
11.7.1 Jurisdictional complexity: Who's in charge? |
|
|
208 | (2) |
|
11.7.2 Policy tools at the national and subnational levels |
|
|
210 | (2) |
|
11.8 Adaptation policy and governance |
|
|
212 | (7) |
|
11.8.1 International and national adaptation tools |
|
|
213 | (2) |
|
11.8.2 Subnational adaptation |
|
|
215 | (1) |
|
11.8.3 Uncovering adaptation co-benefits |
|
|
216 | (3) |
|
Chapter 12 Understanding Climate Change: Pathways Forward |
|
|
219 | (16) |
|
12.1 Integrating adaptation and mitigation: A sustainability approach |
|
|
220 | (2) |
|
12.2 Development paths and transformative change |
|
|
222 | (3) |
|
12.3 Ethics, equity, and responsibility |
|
|
225 | (2) |
|
12.4 Experiments that illustrate solutions |
|
|
227 | (5) |
|
12.4.1 Ecosystem-based approaches at work: TheWallasea Island Wild Coast project |
|
|
227 | (1) |
|
12.4.2 Ecosystem-based approaches at work: Peatland rewetting in Belarus |
|
|
228 | (1) |
|
12.4.3 Urban experiments: Vaxjo and Malmo, Sweden |
|
|
229 | (1) |
|
12.4.4 Indigenous-led sustainability in T'Sou-ke First Nation |
|
|
230 | (1) |
|
12.4.5 Unusual suspects in climate change innovation |
|
|
231 | (1) |
|
12.5 Individual choice and collective action: Moving forward |
|
|
232 | (2) |
|
12.5.1 Evidence-based decision-making and the science/policy interface |
|
|
232 | (2) |
|
|
234 | (1) |
Notes |
|
235 | (24) |
Index |
|
259 | (8) |
About the Authors |
|
267 | |