Preface |
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ix | |
Acknowledgments: Member Checks |
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xi | |
Introduction |
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xiii | |
Evaluating Chaos Events |
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xiv | |
Overarching Concepts and the Seven Parts of This Book |
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xv | |
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1 | (32) |
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1 | (1) |
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Macron's Pledge--The Anchoring Heuristic |
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2 | (1) |
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Normalcy Bias--Just-in-Time Competency |
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2 | (1) |
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3 | (1) |
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Good Morning, You've Been Sorted: Essential or Nonessential |
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4 | (1) |
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What Becomes of the Nonessential? |
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5 | (2) |
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7 | (1) |
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8 | (2) |
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Smoky Mountains--The Collapse of Physical Time |
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10 | (2) |
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12 | (1) |
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12 | (2) |
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14 | (1) |
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They're Digging Out the Playground |
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15 | (1) |
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16 | (2) |
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Situational Awareness: Gathering Indicators with Joe Dolio |
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18 | (3) |
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21 | (1) |
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Continuous Partial Attention: Linda Stone |
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22 | (3) |
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25 | (1) |
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Technology Adoption and Disintermediation |
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26 | (7) |
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33 | (22) |
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The Race for Information: Nikolai Razouvaev |
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34 | (4) |
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Face Validity in the Absence of Truth-Telling: Nikolai's Lessons |
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38 | (1) |
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No Bars behind Bars: Larry Lawton |
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38 | (1) |
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9/11 behind Bars: A Test of Face Validity |
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39 | (1) |
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Think for Yourself: The Value of Debate |
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40 | (1) |
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40 | (1) |
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Lawton's Lessons: Face Validity in a Masked World |
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41 | (1) |
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Juan Browne, the Oroville Dam, and the Citizen-As-Journalist |
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41 | (2) |
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The Message Makes the Medium |
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43 | (1) |
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"Just the Facts:" Privilege and Unfair Advantages |
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43 | (2) |
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Lessons in Citizen Journalism from Juan Browne |
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45 | (1) |
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46 | (1) |
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The Supply Chain Is Breaking: Expectations and Default Bias |
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46 | (3) |
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Negative Vicarious Rehearsal |
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49 | (2) |
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Conjunction Fallacy: Mr. F. Had a Heart Attack |
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51 | (4) |
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55 | (18) |
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55 | (1) |
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55 | (2) |
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Left to His Own Devices: Charles Mak |
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57 | (3) |
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60 | (2) |
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The Law of Small Numbers--Having Confidence in Findings |
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62 | (1) |
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Building the Member Check Network |
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63 | (6) |
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Three Keys to Building an Efficient Member Check Network |
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69 | (4) |
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73 | (52) |
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73 | (1) |
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74 | (1) |
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Breaking Parkinson's Law in Chicago |
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75 | (3) |
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Dr. John Appel, World War II, and the Lesson of Finite Voltage |
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78 | (2) |
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Why We Fight, and the Limits of Propaganda |
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80 | (2) |
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Findings on Finite Voltage: The Lessons of World War II |
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82 | (1) |
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Clay Martin, Death by Dr. Pepper, and the God Complex |
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82 | (2) |
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Beware of the God Complex |
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84 | (1) |
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COVID-19: Locking Down and Opening Up |
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85 | (1) |
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Signs of Approaching Finite Voltage |
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85 | (1) |
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What to Do When You Are Burned Out |
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86 | (1) |
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All Hands on Deck: Robert Travis |
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86 | (1) |
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87 | (1) |
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We Could Sink at Any Moment |
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88 | (1) |
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All of My Bosses Are Dead |
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88 | (1) |
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89 | (2) |
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91 | (1) |
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Takeaways from Robert Travis |
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92 | (1) |
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Civilian Morale during Uncertain Times |
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92 | (1) |
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Hammering the Wehrmann in Eisen |
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93 | (1) |
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94 | (1) |
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Which Pain Will You Choose for Yourself? |
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95 | (1) |
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Roosevelt's Fireside Chats--The Medium Is the Magic |
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96 | (3) |
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Committee for National Morale |
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99 | (1) |
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Propaganda, for Democracy's Sake |
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99 | (1) |
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100 | (1) |
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The End of Opt-In Propaganda |
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101 | (1) |
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Keys to Managing Civilian Morale |
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102 | (1) |
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Dr. David Mays--Population-Level Finite Voltage and Politics Prolonged a Pandemic |
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103 | (1) |
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103 | (1) |
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104 | (1) |
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105 | (1) |
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106 | (1) |
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106 | (1) |
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Home Front Morale in 2020--Fitness and Fortitude |
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107 | (3) |
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Healthcare Heroes and the TikTok Dance Craze |
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110 | (3) |
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Disrupting Finite Voltage: Twelve Ways to Become Resilient during Uncertain Times |
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113 | (12) |
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125 | (10) |
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Hygee: The Danish Mindset |
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125 | (2) |
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Pooches, Pillows, Pools, and Puzzles |
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127 | (1) |
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"Dad, Can I Borrow the Webcam?" |
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128 | (1) |
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Panic-Buying and Survivalism |
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129 | (1) |
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Autonomous Zones, Morgan Rogue, and Vindication of the Prepper |
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129 | (1) |
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You Say You Want a Revolution |
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130 | (1) |
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131 | (1) |
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For Thine Own Self, Grow Food |
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132 | (3) |
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135 | (24) |
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Force Majeures and Black Swans |
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135 | (4) |
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139 | (2) |
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Brief and Localized Chaos (1-5 Days): Certainty |
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141 | (1) |
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Intermediate and Regional Chaos (6-90 Days): Moderate Certainty |
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142 | (1) |
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Extended and International Chaos (90 Days to Indeterminate Duration): Uncertainty |
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143 | (1) |
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Comorbid Chaos (Indeterminate Duration): Uncertainty |
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144 | (3) |
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The Velocity of Information in 2020 |
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147 | (12) |
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7 Failure to Regress to the Mean |
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159 | (18) |
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159 | (1) |
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Emotional Support Peacock |
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159 | (1) |
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Christmas Just Ain't Christmas If Every Day Is Christmas |
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160 | (3) |
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Vocabulary to Lexicon: 2020 Changed the Dictionary and the News Like Never Before |
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163 | (1) |
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Vocabulary and Lexicon, Protests and Pandemic |
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164 | (2) |
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Remote Everything--We Were Going to Get Here Anyway |
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166 | (1) |
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Just Do It: Compliance Behavior to Avoid Consequences |
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167 | (2) |
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169 | (2) |
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171 | (1) |
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Choose Your Own Health Adventure |
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172 | (5) |
Epilogue: The Great Re-Greet |
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177 | (4) |
Index |
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181 | (6) |
About the Author |
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187 | |