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E-raamat: Agent-Based Modeling of Environmental Conflict and Cooperation

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  • Ilmumisaeg: 12-Oct-2018
  • Kirjastus: CRC Press
  • Keel: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9781351106245
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Agent-Based Modeling of Environmental Conflict and CooperationSuurem pilt
  • Formaat: PDF+DRM
  • Ilmumisaeg: 12-Oct-2018
  • Kirjastus: CRC Press
  • Keel: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9781351106245
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Conflict is a major facet of many environmental challenges of our time. However, growing conflict complexity makes it more difficult to identify win-win strategies for sustainable conflict resolution. Innovative methods are needed to help predict, understand, and resolve conflicts in cooperative ways.

Agent-Based Modeling of Environmental Conflict and Cooperation examines computer modeling techniques as an important set of tools for assessing environmental and resource-based conflicts and, ultimately, for finding pathways to conflict resolution and cooperation. This book has two major goals. First, it argues that complexity science can be a unifying framework for professions engaged in conflict studies and resolution, including anthropology, law, management, peace studies, urban planning, and geography. Second, this book presents an innovative framework for approaching conflicts as complex adaptive systems by using many forms of environmental analysis, including system dynamics modeling, agent-based modeling, evolutionary game theory, viability theory, and network analysis. Known as VIABLE (Values and Investments from Agent-Based interaction and Learning in Environmental systems), this framework allows users to model advanced facets of conflictsincluding institution building, coalition formation, adaptive learning, and the potential for future conflictand conflict resolution based on the long-term viability of the actors strategies.

Written for scholars, students, practitioners, and policy makers alike, this book offers readers an extensive introduction to environmental conflict research and resolution techniques. As the result of decades of research, the text presents a strong argument for conflict modeling and reviews the most popular and advanced techniques, including system dynamics modeling, agent-based modeling, and participatory modeling methods. This indispensable guide uses NetLogo, a widely used and free modeling software package, to implement the VIABLE modeling approach in three case study applications around the world. Readers are invited to explore, adapt, modify, and expand these models to conflicts they hope to better understand and resolve.
Preface: Refraining Conflict xxiii
Part I Conflict and the Promise of Conflict Modeling
1 Environmental Conflicts in a Complex World
3(28)
Introduction
3(1)
What Is an Environmental Conflict?
3(2)
Conflict and Scarcity
5(2)
Why Are Environmental Conflicts Worth Resolving?
7(1)
The Goals of Environmental Conflict Resolution
8(3)
Sustainability as a Conflict Resolution Target
9(1)
Linking Sustainability to Conflict Management
10(1)
The History and Evolution of Conflict Resolution
11(1)
Conflict Resolution Efforts across Many Disciplines
12(3)
Urban Planning
13(1)
Economics
13(1)
Water Resources Management
14(1)
International Relations
14(1)
Mutual Gains, Conflict Frames, and Joint Fact-Finding
15(3)
Interests and Positions
16(1)
Framing
17(1)
Joint Fact-Finding: Expanding the Concept
17(1)
The Convergence of Social Science and Modeling Approaches to Conflict
18(2)
Consensus Processes
18(1)
Agent-Based Analysis for Dispute Resolution
18(1)
Viability Analysis and System Resilience
19(1)
Summary
20(1)
Questions for Consideration
21(1)
Additional Resources
22(1)
References
23(8)
2 Why Model? How Can Modeling Help Resolve Conflict?
31(12)
Introduction
31(1)
What Are Models?
32(1)
Why Model Conflict?
32(3)
Mental Modeling
33(1)
Formalizing Mental Models through Mathematics and Simulation
34(1)
The Implications of Modeling
35(2)
Models Can Formalize Studies of Conflict
35(1)
Modeling with Caution
36(1)
The Three-Step Modeling Process
37(1)
Summary
38(1)
Questions for Consideration
38(1)
Additional Resources
39(1)
References
39(4)
3 The History and Types of Conflict Modeling
43(18)
Introduction
43(1)
Models of War and Arms Races
43(3)
Modeling Conflict vs. Modeling the Causes of Conflict
45(1)
A General Typology of Environmental Modeling
46(1)
Game Theory and Conflict Simulation
47(1)
Dynamic Models of Conflict
47(2)
Simulating Strategy in Conflicts
49(3)
Conflict as an Investment Strategy
50(1)
Optimal Strategies and Bounded Rationality
51(1)
Simulating Complex, Multiparty Conflicts
52(1)
Geography of Conflict
53(2)
Network Analysis and Conflict Modeling
54(1)
Summary
55(1)
Questions for Consideration
56(1)
Additional Resources
56(1)
References
57(4)
4 Participatory Modeling and Conflict Resolution
61(32)
Introduction
61(2)
Participation and Decision Making
63(1)
The Goals of Participatory Modeling
64(2)
Social Learning and Participatory Modeling
66(3)
Collaborative Learning and Participatory Processes/Modeling
67(1)
The Need for More Evidence
68(1)
Lessons Learned for Conducting Participatory Modeling Interventions
69(3)
Modeler and Methodological Transparency
70(1)
Stakeholder Selection
71(1)
Approaches to Participatory Modeling
72(5)
Participatory Modeling and System Dynamics
73(1)
Participatory Simulation and Role Playing
73(3)
Decision Analysis and Decision Support
76(1)
Complexity and Participatory Modeling
77(2)
Summary
79(1)
Questions for Consideration
80(1)
Additional Resources
81(3)
References
84(9)
Part II Modeling Environmental Conflict
5 System Dynamics and Conflict Modeling
93(26)
Introduction
93(1)
What Is a System?
93(1)
The Philosophy of SD
94(2)
Systems Thinking
96(1)
Quantitative SD Modeling
97(1)
The Inner-Workings of SD
98(1)
Participatory SD Modeling
98(6)
What Makes Participatory SD Modeling Unique?
100(1)
The Participatory SD Modeling Process
101(3)
System Dynamics and Conflict
104(1)
Quantitative vs. Qualitative SD Approaches to Conflict
104(1)
Drawbacks to Conflict Modeling with System Dynamics
105(4)
Conflict during and after the Modeling Process
105(1)
Are SD Modeling Interventions Effective?
106(2)
The Tyranny of SD
108(1)
Summary
109(1)
Questions for Consideration
110(1)
Additional Resources
111(3)
References
114(5)
6 Agent-Based Modeling and Environmental Conflict
119(36)
Introduction
119(1)
What Is Agent-Based Modeling?
120(1)
ABM Conflict Applications
121(2)
Complexity Science and ABM Philosophy
123(4)
A Departure from Previous Views of Structure and Behavior
125(2)
Comparing Individual and Aggregate Modeling
127(2)
Discreteness and Heterogeneity
127(1)
Information Asymmetry
128(1)
Spatial Complexity
128(1)
Decision Making and Agent Interactions in ABMs
129(2)
Agent Decision Strategies
129(1)
Agent Interactions
130(1)
Spatial Interactions
131(1)
Human Behavior and ABMs
131(2)
ABM Disruptions to Economic Theory
132(1)
Drama Theory
133(1)
Validation and the Empirical Basis of ABMs
133(3)
Methods for Empirically Informing ABMs
134(2)
Participatory ABM
136(5)
Conflating "Successful" Participation with Intervention Context
136(1)
Role-Playing Games (RPGs) and Agent-Based Modeling (ABMs)
137(1)
Companion Modeling: A Platform for RPGs
138(1)
Participatory ABMs and Social Validation
139(2)
Summary
141(1)
Questions for Consideration
141(2)
Additional Resources
143(4)
References
147(8)
7 Modeling Conflict and Cooperation as Agent Action and Interaction
155(40)
Introduction
155(1)
Agent Decision Making
156(1)
Capability and Capital
156(1)
Rationality and Utility
156(1)
Adaptation in the Presence of Others
157(1)
Unifying Complex Systems Approaches to Studying Conflict
157(2)
Viability Theory
159(2)
Viability Theory and Resilience
159(1)
Viability Theory and Multi-Agent Conflict
160(1)
A Conceptual Introduction to the VIABLE Framework
161(8)
Four Relationships Determining Conflict and Cooperation
163(1)
Single Agent VIABLE Modeling
164(4)
Multi-Agent VIABLE Modeling
168(1)
Mathematical Modeling Using the VIABLE Framework
169(3)
Modeling the Individual Conflict Agent
169(3)
Multi-Agent Interaction, Stability, and Conflict
172(1)
Rigorously Defining Interactions
172(1)
Investment Targets and Equilibria
173(2)
Mathematically Reframing Conditions for Conflict and Cooperation
175(3)
Summary
178(4)
A Summary of the VIABLE Process
181(1)
Institutions and Conflict
182(1)
Appendix 7.1 Adaptation Rates α and β
182(1)
Appendix 7.2 Derivation of Single Agent Governing Equations
183(1)
Appendix 7.3 Response Curves Ci and Multi-Agent Interaction Efficiency Matrix fij
183(1)
Appendix 7.4 Stability within Agent Interactions
184(1)
Questions for Consideration
185(1)
Additional Resources
185(3)
References
188(7)
Part III Applications of the VIABLE Model Framework
8 A Viability Approach to Understanding Fishery Conflict and Cooperation
195(46)
Introduction
195(2)
The Economic and Ecological Nature of Fishery Conflicts
197(2)
Fishery Decline and Collapse
197(1)
Fishery Collapse and Conflict
198(1)
Potential Solutions to Fishery Conflicts
199(3)
Individual Transferable Quotas (ITQs)
201(1)
Noteworthy Criticisms of ITQs
201(1)
Taking a Coupled Ecological-Economic Approach
202(1)
Fishery Modeling
202(1)
Defining Fishery Sustainability in Terms of Viability
203(2)
Building an Agent-Based Model of a Fishery Conflict
205(1)
Agent Value Functions
206(1)
Modeling Fish Stocks
207(1)
Modeling Fish Harvest
208(1)
Viability and Uncertainty
209(3)
Decision Rules Describing the Behavior of Fishers
212(3)
Model 1 Fishers as Global Optimizers
212(1)
Model 2 Fishers as Local "Satisficers"
213(1)
Adaptation Delays and Priorities
213(2)
Multiagent and Multifish Stock Interactions
215(4)
Economic Competition: Satisficers and Optimizers
215(2)
Optimizing and Gradient Decision Rules: The Fishery Decline
217(2)
Economic Cooperation for Sustainable Fishery Management
219(6)
Creating Cooperative Institutions and Policies
219(2)
Reconsidering Investment and Competitive Advantages
221(1)
Negotiations and Cooperative Fishing Arrangements
222(2)
Simulating a Cooperative Fishing Scenario
224(1)
Summary
225(2)
Appendix 8.1 Ecological and Economic Viability Conditions
227(1)
Appendix 8.2 More Details on the Multi-Agent Fishery Model
227(3)
Optimizers
227(2)
Satisficers (Gradient Decision Rule)
229(1)
Questions for Consideration
230(2)
Additional Resources
232(2)
References
234(7)
9 An Adaptive Dynamic Model of Emissions Trading
241(38)
Introduction
241(1)
Climate Change and Conflict
242(2)
Strategies for Mitigation of Climate Change
244(1)
The Promise of Climate Solutions
245(1)
Putting a Price on Carbon
246(2)
Modeling Emissions Trading and Policy
248(2)
Defining Emission Baselines, Targets, and Reduction Goals
250(3)
Initial Allocation of Permits
253(2)
Allocation Philosophy
253(1)
Allocation Mechanisms to Test
254(1)
Modeling Conflict Potential in Emissions Trading
255(2)
Elements of Agent Goals or Values
255(2)
Pricing Carbon through Emissions Trading
257(2)
Viability Analysis
259(3)
Viability Constraints for Emissions Trading
259(2)
Testing the Viability Constraints
261(1)
Modeling Emissions Trading Scenarios
262(1)
Results
263(2)
Case 1 Allocations Proportionate to an Agent's Baseline Emissions
263(1)
Case 2 Allocations Proportionate to an Agent's Population (Rule 2)
263(2)
Summary
265(1)
Appendix 9.1 Derivation of Value Change with Respect to Emissions Reduction νri and Threshold Price πi
266(1)
Appendix 9.2 Derivation of Viability Conditions
267(2)
Marginal Economic Viability Condition
267(1)
Absolute Economic Viability Condition
268(1)
Environmental Viability Condition
268(1)
Questions for Consideration
269(10)
Additional Resources
271(1)
References
272(7)
10 Modeling Bioenergy and Land Use Conflict
279(42)
Introduction
279(2)
What Is Bioenergy?
281(5)
The Potential Impacts of Bioenergy
281(1)
Ecological Impacts and Net Energy Value
281(2)
Switchgrass and Miscanthus as Bioenergy Crops
283(2)
Farming and Bioenergy Policy
285(1)
Bioenergy in Illinois
286(1)
Bioenergy Crops and Conflict
286(6)
Conflicts over Food and Water
288(2)
Previous Efforts to Model Agricultural Dynamics
290(2)
Model Design and Structure
292(3)
The Farmer Agent Model
292(3)
Spatial Extension of the Viable Model Framework
295(2)
Constraining the Model Spatially
296(1)
Spatial Resolution
296(1)
Initializing the Model to Equilibrium
297(1)
Scenario Analysis for New Biofuel Crops
297(4)
Scenario 1 Simulating the Introduction of a New Ethanol Refinery
297(3)
Scenario 2 Simulating Switchgrass and Miscanthus Introduction
300(1)
Scenario 3 Introduction of a Biofuel Subsidy
301(1)
Simulation Results
301(3)
Scenario 1 No Demand for Miscanthus or Switchgrass
301(1)
Scenario 2 Introduction of Miscanthus and Switchgrass
301(3)
Scenario 3 Biofuel Subsidies
304(1)
Summary
304(3)
Appendix 10.1 Agent Model of Biofuel Investment and Harvesting
307(1)
Questions for Consideration
307(3)
Additional Resources
310(4)
References
314(7)
11 The Future of Modeling Environmental Conflict and Cooperation
321(8)
Reflecting on Our Goals
321(1)
Takeaways
322(2)
Conflict Resolution Is Becoming an Increasingly Supported and Sophisticated Field
322(1)
Participatory Processes and Modeling Are Gaining a Foothold
322(1)
Cross-Pollination between Modeling Methods Makes Them More Useful
322(1)
The VIABLE Model Can Help Us Find Alternative Pathways to Increasing Agent Value
323(1)
There Are Opportunities to Better Understand the Emergent Effects of Conflicts
323(1)
Questions for the Future
324(2)
Does Modeling Matter?
324(1)
Are We Modeling What We Mean to Model?
324(1)
How Do We Make Conflict Modeling a Common and Standard Activity?
325(1)
How Can Modeling Prevent Conflict?
325(1)
Questions for Consideration
326(1)
References
326(3)
Index 329
Professor Todd BenDor is the head of the land use and environmental planning specialization in the Department of City and Regional Planning University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. His research and teaching focus on producing better ways to understand the impacts that human activities and development can have on sensitive ecological and environmental systems. His research uses both qualitative and quantitative techniques to explore improvements in environmental policy, better and easier to use models of urban growth and change, and improvements in environmental conflict resolution techniques. Dr. BenDor is also the Director of Carolina Planning's Ph.D. Program.

Jürgen Scheffran is professor at the Institute of Geography of Universität Hamburg and head of the Research Group Climate Change and Security (CLISEC) in the Excellence Initiative Integrated Climate Systems Analysis and Prediction (CliSAP) at KlimaCampus Hamburg. He is Associate Member of the Center for Science and Peace Research (ZNF) and Faculty Affiliate of the Program in Arms Control, Disarmament and International Security (ACDIS) at the University of Illinois. After his physics Ph.D. at the University of Marburg he worked in the Interdisciplinary Research Group IANUS and the Mathematics Department of the Technical University of Darmstadt, at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), and as Visiting Professor at the University of Paris (Sorbonne). Before he came to Hamburg in August 2009, he spent five years at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC), where he held positions in the Departments of Political Science and Atmospheric Sciences, at ACDIS and the Center for Advanced BioEnergy Research (CABER).
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