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E-raamat: Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies

3.85/5 (38537 hinnangut Goodreads-ist)
(Professor in the Faculty of Philosophy & Oxford Martin School and Director, Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford)
  • Formaat: PDF+DRM
  • Ilmumisaeg: 03-Jul-2014
  • Kirjastus: Oxford University Press
  • Keel: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9780191666827
  • Formaat - PDF+DRM
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  • Formaat: PDF+DRM
  • Ilmumisaeg: 03-Jul-2014
  • Kirjastus: Oxford University Press
  • Keel: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9780191666827

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The human brain has some capabilities that the brains of other animals lack. It is to these distinctive capabilities that our species owes its dominant position. Other animals have stronger muscles or sharper claws, but we have cleverer brains.

If machine brains one day come to surpass human brains in general intelligence, then this new superintelligence could become very powerful. As the fate of the gorillas now depends more on us humans than on the gorillas themselves, so the fate of our species then would come to depend on the actions of the machine superintelligence.

But we have one advantage: we get to make the first move. Will it be possible to construct a seed AI or otherwise to engineer initial conditions so as to make an intelligence explosion survivable? How could one achieve a controlled detonation?

To get closer to an answer to this question, we must make our way through a fascinating landscape of topics and considerations. Read the book and learn about oracles, genies, singletons; about boxing methods, tripwires, and mind crime; about humanity's cosmic endowment and differential technological development; indirect normativity, instrumental convergence, whole brain emulation and technology couplings; Malthusian economics and dystopian evolution; artificial intelligence, and biological cognitive enhancement, and collective intelligence.

This profoundly ambitious and original book picks its way carefully through a vast tract of forbiddingly difficult intellectual terrain. Yet the writing is so lucid that it somehow makes it all seem easy. After an utterly engrossing journey that takes us to the frontiers of thinking about the human condition and the future of intelligent life, we find in Nick Bostrom's work nothing less than a reconceptualization of the essential task of our time.

Arvustused

Worth reading. * Elon Musk, Founder of SpaceX and Tesla * I highly recommend this book * Bill Gates * very deep ... every paragraph has like six ideas embedded within it. * Nate Silver * Nick Bostrom makes a persuasive case that the future impact of AI is perhaps the most important issue the human race has ever faced. Instead of passively drifting, we need to steer a course. Superintelligence charts the submerged rocks of the future with unprecedented detail. It marks the beginning of a new era * Stuart Russell, Professor of Computer Science, University of California, Berkley * Those disposed to dismiss an 'AI takeover' as science fiction may think again after reading this original and well-argued book * Martin Rees, Past President, Royal Society * This superb analysis by one of the worlds clearest thinkers tackles one of humanitys greatest challenges: if future superhuman artificial intelligence becomes the biggest event in human history, then how can we ensure that it doesnt become the last? * Max Tegmark, Professor of Physics, MIT * Terribly important ... groundbreaking... extraordinary sagacity and clarity, enabling him to combine his wide-ranging knowledge over an impressively broad spectrum of disciplines - engineering, natural sciences, medicine, social sciences and philosophy - into a comprehensible whole... If this book gets the reception that it deserves, it may turn out the most important alarm bell since Rachel Carson's Silent Spring from 1962, or ever * Olle Haggstrom, Professor of Mathematical Statistics * Valuable. The implications of introducing a second intelligent species onto Earth are far-reaching enough to deserve hard thinking * The Economist * There is no doubting the force of [ Bostroms] arguments the problem is a research challenge worthy of the next generations best mathematical talent. Human civilisation is at stake * Financial Times * His book Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies became an improbable bestseller in 2014 * Alex Massie, Times (Scotland) * Ein Text so nüchtern und cool, so angstfrei und dadurch umso erregender, dass danach das, was bisher vor allem Filme durchgespielt haben, auf einmal höchst plausibel erscheint. A text so sober and cool, so fearless and thus all the more exciting that what has until now mostly been acted through in films, all of a sudden appears most plausible afterwards. (translated from German) * Georg Diez, DER SPIEGEL * Worth reading.... We need to be super careful with AI. Potentially more dangerous than nukes * Elon Musk, Founder of SpaceX and Tesla * A damn hard read * Sunday Telegraph * I recommend Superintelligence by Nick Bostrom as an excellent book on this topic * Jolyon Brown, Linux Format * Every intelligent person should read it. * Nils Nilsson, Artificial Intelligence Pioneer, Stanford University * An intriguing mix of analytic philosophy, computer science and cutting-edge science fiction, Nick Bostrom's Superintelligence is required reading for anyone seeking to make sense of the recent surge of interest in artificial intelligence (AI). * Colin Garvey, Icon *

Lists of Figures, Tables, and Boxes
xv
1 Past developments and present capabilities
1(21)
Growth modes and big history
1(2)
Great expectations
3(2)
Seasons of hope and despair
5(6)
State of the art
11(7)
Opinions about the future of machine intelligence
18(4)
2 Paths to superintelligence
22(30)
Artificial intelligence
23(7)
Whole brain emulation
30(6)
Biological cognition
36(8)
Brain-computer interfaces
44(4)
Networks and organizations
48(2)
Summary
50(2)
3 Forms of superintelligence
52(10)
Speed superintelligence
53(1)
Collective superintelligence
54(2)
Quality superintelligence
56(2)
Direct and indirect reach
58(1)
Sources of advantage for digital intelligence
59(3)
4 The kinetics of an intelligence explosion
62(16)
Timing and speed of the takeoff
62(4)
Recalcitrance
66(7)
Non-machine intelligence paths
66(2)
Emulation and AI paths
68(5)
Optimization power and explosivity
73(5)
5 Decisive strategic advantage
78(13)
Will the frontrunner get a decisive strategic advantage?
79(4)
How large will the successful project be?
83(4)
Monitoring
84(2)
International collaboration
86(1)
From decisive strategic advantage to singleton
87(4)
6 Cognitive superpowers
91(14)
Functionalities and superpowers
92(3)
An AI takeover scenario
95(4)
Power over nature and agents
99(6)
7 The superintelligent will
105(10)
The relation between intelligence and motivation
105(4)
Instrumental convergence
109(6)
Self-preservation
109(1)
Goal-content integrity
109(2)
Cognitive enhancement
111(1)
Technological perfection
112(1)
Resource acquisition
113(2)
8 Is the default outcome doom?
115(12)
Existential catastrophe as the default outcome of an intelligence explosion?
115(1)
The treacherous turn
116(3)
Malignant failure modes
119(8)
Perverse instantiation
120(2)
Infrastructure profusion
122(3)
Mind crime
125(2)
9 The control problem
127(18)
Two agency problems
127(2)
Capability control methods
129(9)
Boxing methods
129(2)
Incentive methods
131(4)
Stunting
135(2)
Tripwires
137(1)
Motivation selection methods
138(5)
Direct specification
139(1)
Domesticity
140(1)
Indirect normativity
141(1)
Augmentation
142(1)
Synopsis
143(2)
10 Oracles, genies, sovereigns, tools
145(14)
Oracles
145(3)
Genies and sovereigns
148(3)
Tool-AIs
151(4)
Comparison
155(4)
11 Multipolar scenarios
159(26)
Of horses and men
160(6)
Wages and unemployment
160(1)
Capital and welfare
161(2)
The Malthusian principle in a historical perspective
163(1)
Population growth and investment
164(2)
Life in an algorithmic economy
166(10)
Voluntary slavery, casual death
167(2)
Would maximally efficient work be fun?
169(3)
Unconscious outsourcers?
172(1)
Evolution is not necessarily up
173(3)
Post-transition formation of a singleton?
176(9)
A second transition
177(1)
Superorganisms and scale economies
178(2)
Unification by treaty
180(5)
12 Acquiring values
185(24)
The value-loading problem
185(2)
Evolutionary selection
187(1)
Reinforcement learning
188(1)
Associative value accretion
189(2)
Motivational scaffolding
191(1)
Value learning
192(9)
Emulation modulation
201(1)
Institution design
202(5)
Synopsis
207(2)
13 Choosing the criteria for choosing
209(19)
The need for indirect normativity
209(2)
Coherent extrapolated volition
211(6)
Some explications
212(1)
Rationales for CEV
213(3)
Further remarks
216(1)
Morality models
217(3)
Do What I Mean
220(1)
Component list
221(6)
Goal content
222(1)
Decision theory
223(1)
Epistemology
224(1)
Ratification
225(2)
Getting close enough
227(1)
14 The strategic picture
228(27)
Science and technology strategy
228(12)
Differential technological development
229(1)
Preferred order of arrival
230(3)
Rates of change and cognitive enhancement
233(3)
Technology couplings
236(2)
Second-guessing
238(2)
Pathways and enablers
240(6)
Effects of hardware progress
240(2)
Should whole brain emulation research be promoted?
242(3)
The person-affecting perspective favors speed
245(1)
Collaboration
246(9)
The race dynamic and its perils
246(3)
On the benefits of collaboration
249(4)
Working together
253(2)
15 Crunch time
255(6)
Philosophy with a deadline
255(1)
What is to be done?
256(3)
Seeking the strategic light
257(1)
Building good capacity
258(1)
Particular measures
258(1)
Will the best in human nature please stand up
259(2)
Notes 261(44)
Bibliography 305(20)
Index 325
Nick Bostrom is Professor in the Faculty of Philosophy at Oxford University and founding Director of the Future of Humanity Institute and of the Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology within the Oxford Martin School. He is the author of some 200 publications, including Anthropic Bias (Routledge, 2002), Global Catastrophic Risks (ed., OUP, 2008), and Human Enhancement (ed., OUP, 2009). He previously taught at Yale, and he was a Postdoctoral Fellow of the British Academy. Bostrom has a background in physics, computational neuroscience, and mathematical logic as well as philosophy.